WTF? Allen opens slight lead against challenger Webb

[acmavm]

<snip>
RICHMOND, Va. - Republican Sen. George Allen is slightly ahead of Democratic challenger Jim Webb in a closely watched race that could determine whether the GOP retains control of the Senate, according to a poll published Monday.

A statewide survey by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. showed that 47 percent supported Allen while 43 percent favored Webb, a former Republican and first-time candidate. Two percent supported independent Gail Parker, and 8 percent were undecided.

The results, published on the Web sites of several Virginia newspapers, are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 17-19 with 625 registered voters statewide.


Allen's tenuous advantage is equal to the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. His campaign was optimistic.

-MORE-

How in the hell is this possible????????????

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15397961/

[Bluzmann57]

1. How is this possible?

Well, apparently the people they polled preferred Allen to Webb. Not too hard to figure out. Next week, they may ask 625 other people and get different results.

[Alhena]

16. Much of Virginia has the deep south mentality

we see a bigoted neanderthal in Allen, they see a good old boy who will look out for their interests. I'm hoping for the best but expecting the worst with both Virginia and Tennessee. I expect we pick up 25 seats in the House and 5 in the Senate. Which means we'd control the House, Cheney would be the tie-breaker in the Senate.

[notadmblnd]

2. The closer they make the polls.....

the easier it will be for them to steal.

[onenote]

6. so how do you explain other Mason - Dixon polls

showing Democrats leading and in some cases expanding their leads? Assuming that every pollster is in bed with the repubs and falsifying results as part of an effort to facilitate election fraud, except of course when those same pollsters show Democrats pulling ahead, is a sympton of tinfoil poisoining. We have to remain vigilant about voter fraud, but attacking every poll with a result we don't like is silly.

[OzarkDem]

12. They're trying to look reputable

but they're famous for putting out bogus poll numbers that favor GOP candidates late in races, trying to get candidates and parties to pull money out of races.

They are not a reputable pollster, they're paid to rig polls.

[onenote]

13. interesting charge

can you back it up.

[OzarkDem]

15. Nope

But I watched them do it through the '00 and '04 elections coordinated with our local GOP rag, the Plain Dealer. They release the bogus poll numbers and the news media pushes it like crazy. I even got one of their reporters to admit it.

There are plenty of other polls out there, pay attention to them and you'll see the Mason Dixon one is out of whack. You've nothing to lose by ignoring it.

[Clark2008]

24. And I can back you up.

Same experience here.

BTW, Tennessee's problem isn't necessarly bigoted voters (this comment is to Alhena's post): it's lack of diverse media. No AAR or anything but conservative to moderately conservative radio and news media. (I do think there's AAR in Memphis, but that's it. Tennessee's too long a state to have liberal radio only on one end.)

[onenote]

3. Webb has closed the gap with Allen, but he hasn't sealed the deal

with a lot of voters. Hopefully he'll come on strong in the last two weeks of the campaign.

[johnnyrocket]

5. Yep, depressing polls. VA is a long shot for Webb...

...but there's alway hope.

[bluestateguy]

4. There are a lot of racists in Virginia

However offensive his use of epithets is to us, and many others, to white rural Virginians, they are code words to suggest that he is one of the good ole' boys. Oh sure, they may say they deplore such language in public places and in polite company, but in the privacy of the voting booth, such behavior is rewarded.

That poll does not surprise me in the least, though I still think Webb can win.

[Hav]

7. .

Apparently it's necessary to add that there was probably no poll that showed Webb leading. He wasn't even close before. He was far behind and was still trailing despite all the racist things that were revealed.
I almost had no hope for Webb anymore but who knows. Virginia would be great but I still have my doubts.

[ACK]

8. Three problems for Webb

1. Not a lot of people knew who is even was until the racism flack.

That is because no one saw the race as competitive until Allen decided to stomp on his own dick.

2. So all the money came streaming in late in the game.

Now does he introduce himself or attack Allen? He is mostly attacking Allen now but he has a new ad that kind of talks about himself a little. I think he made a wise decision its actually tightened a couple of points since he went on the attack.

3. He is a pretty damn conservative Democrat who used to work with Raygun.

Ok, sounds like that would be a plus in VA right? Not so much. Give the voters between two conservatives and they will typically vote Repuke every time. Yes that is counter to DLC bullshit strategy.

Actually the fact that this race is even competitive at all is a testement to how far Allen has fallen.

Also, no one outside of DU talks about Dean's 50 state plan and that has helped especially after Allen started inserting his own neck into that noose he has in his office.

[keta11]

9. Webb is not a good campaigner

He is not a glad-hander and does not seem to have a politician's personality. I have watched him and he is not comfortable around people. IMO, this is not helping.

He is not cut out for this stuff.

It should not be close in this Democratic wave. He has never led in any of the polls except a Zogby poll in Sept. that put him 7 points up in September. If he doesn't win northern VA 65%-35%, he is toast.

There, I said it, Flame away!!

[robcon]

10. It 's a cliche, but...

it all depends on turnout. Southern Virginia is strongly Repuglican, while Northern Virginia is strongly Democratic.

[SPCAworks]

17. I always thought

northern Va meaning rich and white, Stafford County, Spotsylvania, Orange, Culpeper, etc... I thought those were strong repug areas??? And Richmond area was shaded blue?

[blue neen]

21. Fairfax County is strongly Democratic.

The Loudon County (fastest growing area in VA) newspaper just endorsed Webb.

[renegade000]

22. Northern Virginia

really just refers to the Washington DC suburbs...Fairfax, Arlington, Loundon, Alexandria...etc

Arlington, Alexandria, and some regions of Fairfax are especially Democratic (8th congressional district)

[renegade000]

23. Old poll, and other poll have it too close to call...

good lord I hope Webb wins...

I'll be extremely disappointed in my state if that isn't the case.

[OzarkDem]

11. Mason Dixon polling - don't believe it

They did the same thing in '00 and '04 with Gore and Kerry.

[TheVirginian]

18. What you mean to say "A result I don't like-- don't believe it".

Then you turn around and are shocked, or worse make accusations of election fraud, when the poll turns out to be accurate on Election Day.

[zbdent]

14. Maybe the poll didn't include Webb's full name ...

"Hi, would you rather vote for George F. Allen, or James H. 'Jim'?"

Like it will appear on the voting machine ...

[MattP]

19. Webbs name is to long but Allen isn't?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/23/AR2006102301178_pf.html If he wasn't going to win Allen probably will win now with this kind of crap tilting the election to him, I mean how can you crop off Webb's name when Allens is longer?

[bigdarryl]

20. This fucking poll was done 10 days ago it was even..

before the news about the novels came out.