Prediction: Democrats will win 21 seats this November

[SteppingRazor]

http://blogs.southflorida.com/citylink_dansweeney/2006/10/prediction_the_democrats_will.html

I've been working on this one for a while, adding and subtracting, rethinking and so on. But I think I've finally got it where I want it. I now predict that Democrats will win 21 seats currently held by the GOP in the November election. Conversely, the GOP will win no Democratic seats.

Here's how it breaks down:


Dem. House pickups

Arizona, District 8
Republican Rep. Jim Kolbe is retiring, and his shoes will be filled by a Democrat. For reasons that I don’t claim to understand, the national GOP party has refused to back GOP candidate Randy Graf, pretty much conceding this district to Democrat Gabrielle Giffords. It seems like a petulant move, with Arizona Republicans voting for Graf in the GOP primary over the Republican Party’s chosen one, Steve Huffman. Either way, it’s a win for Giffords and the Dems.

Colorado, District 7
Republican Bob Beauprez is running for governor, and his seat is being contested by Republican Rick O’Connell and Democrat Ed Perlmutter. Some polls have Perlmutter leading by as many as 20 points, and this district went to Kerry in the 2004 election. Nuff said.

Connecticut, District 2
Republican Rob Simmons is simply a casualty of the times. This district went Kerry by more than 10 points in 2004. No other incumbent Republican in the country has a district that went to Kerry by double digits. Worse, sentiment toward Republicans in this district has only grown more sour in the last two years. Ignore polls that give Simmons a 12- or 14-point lead over admittedly goofy Joe Courtney. This race is Courtney’s to lose.

Connecticut, District 4
Despite his popularity in the district, Republican Christopher Shays has been unable to shake Democrat Diane Farrell. Kerry won here in 2004 by 6 points, and Shays himself only won re-election by a 4 point margin that year, and that was also against Farrell, but in a much kinder climate.

Connecticut, District 5
As in Florida’s District 22, long-term incumbency is a problem this time around, as Washington is seen as a corrupting influence, one whose likelihood at corrupting a politician increases exponentially the longer the politician is there. Republican Nancy Johnson has held this seat for 24 years. Democrat Chris Murphy is tied with her in the polls. With a bit of cash infusion to country the $2.6 million Johnson has on hand, he should pull this off.

Florida, District 16
If Mark Foley’s old district goes GOP, I will personally eat a cow. Although Republican Joe Negron is now running, GOP voters will have to check the Foley box — not bloody likely. Democrat Tim Mahoney should take this easily.

Florida, District 22
Between the Foley scandal, the anger over the rip-off prescription drug plan among seniors (this district is full of’em) and the fact that Kerry took this district by 4 points, Republican Clay Shaw, after more than two decades of so-so representation will finally get kicked to the curb, replaced by Democrat Ron Klein.

Illinois, District 6
The polls have this district tied up between Democrat Tammy Duckworth and Republican Peter Roskam. But I haven’t seen any polls that came out since the last debate, in which Roskam idiotically accused Duckworth of wanting to “cut and run” in Iraq, a country in which Duckworth recently left both of her legs.

Indiana, District 2
Incumbent Republican Chris Chocola is trailing in the polls to Democratic candidate Joe Donnelly. As a general rule of thumb, if you’re an incumbent and you’re trailing, you’re probably screwed.

Indiana, District 8
Democratic challenger Brad Ellsworth is leading Republican incumbent Jeff Hostettler by double digits. Period.

Iowa, District 1
This open seat, formerly Republican, is the Democrats’ to lose. Republican Mike Whalen has not led in a single poll, the district went to Kerry by 7 points in 2004, and Democrat Bruce Braley has thus far defined the race, despite Whalen’s desperate attempts to paint him as “anti-troop.”

Minnesota, District 6
Former Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy is in the midst of a losing battle for an open Senate seat against Democrat Amy Klobuchar. Democrat Patty Wetterling, who lost to Klobuchar in the Democratic Senate primary, will beat out Republican Michele Bachmann for this seat. At a time when Bush and the far-right are looking crazier and crazier, running an extreme conservative like Bachmann in a relatively moderate district was a foolish notion.

Nevada, District 3
Tessa Hafen should squeal by to take out Incumbent Jon Porter, for several reasons. First, though most political handicappers insist on calling the 3rd district “Republican,” Bush won by only 1 percentage point, 50-49, in 2004. Additionally, Porter was last re-elected with only 54 percent of the vote. Plus, a minimum-wage bill on the ballot will help ensure a large Democratic turnout. All these things add up to victory for Hafen, the little substitute teacher who could.

New Mexico, District 1
Incumbent Republican Heather Wilson, who earlier this year was considered a possibility for a Senate run against Jeff Bingaman, will go down to Democratic contender Patricia Madrid. The latest polls have the pair tied, but Wilson won re-election last time by a relatively narrow margin of 8 points, and this district went to Kerry by 3 points in 2004.

Ohio, District 1
Democrat John Cranley has successfully painted Republican incumbent Steve Chabot as a Bush stooge. Chabot, meanwhile, has failed to counter this, instead screaming about immigration – a somewhat silly issue to harp on in this middle-of-the-Midwest, landlocked district.

Ohio, District 18
After Bob Ney went down to federal bribery charges, Republican Joy Padgett replaced him. But being the successor to the corrupt Ney, and having formerly worked in the office of Ohio governor Bob Taft, perhaps the most unpopular governor in American history, means that Padgett doesn’t have much of a chance against Democrat Zack Space.

Pennsylvania, District 6
Despite several recent polls showing incumbent Republican Jim Gerlach with a fairly substantial lead, Democratic challenger Lois Murphy has been leading – or at least close – for most of the race, and there’s no reason not to think these recent polls are outliers.

Pennsylvania, District 7
Republican Curt Weldon must be the most vulnerable incumbent in the state. Democratic former admiral Joe Stesak now leads by a couple points. According to another poll, only a third of voters think Weldon deserves to be re-elected.

Pennsylvania, District 8
As sentiment turns against the Iraq War, Democrat Patrick Murphy, a former Army captain and veteran of that war who now calls for its end, looks better and better against Republican incumbent Mike Fitzpatrick, who offers the usual “stay the course” platitudes.

Pennsylvania, District 10
Incumbent Republican Don Sherwood, a confirmed adulterer and alleged basher, will probably get smoked by Chris Carney, if only because so-called “values voters” will stay home on election day.

Texas, District 22
Alleged money launderer Tom DeLay’s old district is a shoe-in for Democrat Nick Lampson, who faces a write-in vote by Republicans.


Rep. Pickups

Not a damn one. I see no race in the country in which Republicans stand a serious chance of overtaking a Democratic seat.

Thus, the totals after the election:
Democrats – 222 seats
Republicans – 212 seats
Independents – 1 seat

Say hello to Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Chairman of the Judiciary Committee John Conyers. Now let the investigations begin!

[Downtown Hound]

1. That would be awesome!

I just hope that we can overcome any voter fraud that takes place. That's the only thing that worries me at this point, although I am less worried now because the tide is definitely turning.

[AX10]

2. That is at least 21. A good night for us would be 30 seats.

[Orangepeel]

6. A good night would be a net of 15 seats

The more the better of course, but it'll be a great night if we just take it back.

[longship]

3. Good effort!! There will also be some surprises.

I don't like the candidate polls this year. There's something screwy with them.

I like the 21 you list. Election Predictions is already listing 20 turnovers in the House. Just thought you'd like to compare notes with Tom, the prognasticator at that site.

on edit: link fixed.

[featherman]

4. VERY NICE SUMMARY...THANKS

[INdemo]

5. You missed one in Indiana

District 9 is likely to go to Baron Hill (D) I belive he has been leading in the polls.

[SteppingRazor]

21. I'll certainly grant you Hill may very well win here...

but he lost -- albeit barely -- the last time, and the campaigns in 2006 are practically mirror images of the ones in 2004. In a more-red-than-blue district, the GOP is pointing to Hill's votes against flag-burning laws and support of gay marriage. Moreover, there's no other proposition (such as minimum wage) to draw Democratic Indiana voters to the polls. Hell, there's not even a Democratic candidate for the senate to run against Lugar. For a while, I had this as a Hill win, but I think it might go down almost exactly as it did in 2004, with Sodrel winning by a few votes.

[Greeby]

7. Umm, where is the Independent gonna come from?

Bernie Sanders is moving up to the Senate. I mean, an Independent might win somewhere, but I haven't heard anything about it happening

[Flabbergasted]

9. Lieberman

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

16. That's the Senate.

[SteppingRazor]

20. Whoops! I put Peter Welch in Vermont in the "I" category for some reason..

my bad! :hi:

[Tom Rinaldo]

8. You count no pick ups in New York State

But I think we have a good shot at winning up to four seats away from Republicans here. And for those who keep track of such things, there is no evoting in New York. Our candidates could always use a little more cash and volunteer energy sent their way (but who couldn't).

[Danascot]

11. Which four seats do you think we might pick up?

I'm in Albany and interested in NY

[Tom Rinaldo]

12. CD24, CD26, CD29, and possibly CD20 and CD19

CD24 is only a marginally Republican District and an open seat and with a good Democratic Candidate running to fill it.

CD26 has a Republican incumbent, Tom Reynolds, who has gotten swept up directly in the Foley scandal and is now polling below his Democratic challenger.

CD29 is a typically a fairly strong Republican district but it has a weak one term Republican incumbent up against a dynamic ex-military Democrat, Eric Massa, who is pouring it on. The race is very tight with Massa only slightly behind now and I expect him to pull it out. HEre is Eric's kos Diary:
http://eric-massa.dailykos.com/

I expect you are more familiar with CD20 than I am, but the Democratic challenger, Kirstin Gillibrand, has been raising money and seemingly running an excellent race in a district that is not overwhelmingly Republican.

CD19 has been a real surprise to many people, but Democratic nominee John Hall (formerly of the Rock Band "Orleans") has energized an amazing base of volunteers to work for him to win this one against a formerly popular moderate Republican, who it seems also has at least indirect ties to the Foley scandal, who represents a District that probably should be Democratic. Here is a recent story about that race:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/cq/20061010/pl_cq_politics/kellysconnectionstofoleyscandalputherseatatrisk_1

[DaveinMD]

13. Reynolds

is toast. I expect him to lose by about 10 points. He's being hit hard on the Foley scandal. I also think Massa wins against Kuhl.

[SteppingRazor]

22. I'm not yet convinced of any of these, except maybe Reynolds...

I would argue that 24 is not "marginally Republican" -- out of some 654,000 people in the district, Republicans outnumber Democrats by some 40,000. That's a hell of a lot of votes to overcome.

I will grant you that 26 could go blue if Reynolds stays deep in the Foley scandal and doesn't switch the tone of the race -- and given the couple million he just sunk into TV ad buys, that change in tone should be coming.

District 29 is very red, and Massa has never led in the polls. The last poll I saw had Kuhl ahead by double digits, and while Kuhl won by about 10 points in 2004, previous House races in this district have gone to the GOP by 20, even 30, points. So, I'm not totally convinced.

[Tom Rinaldo]

26. New York Republicans are not representative of National Republicans

Remember Rockerfeller Republicans? Remember Jacob Javits? George Pataki always ran as a moderate Republican, that's the only way he could get elected here. New York Red Disticts are not the same as Virginia Red Districts. Bush is VERY unpopular in New York. Republicans in New York State are getting absolutely nowhere in opposing Hillary Clinton, that should tell us something. In other Republican areas of the nation Hillary is used to rally the Republican base, here they could not even find a credible opponent to oppose her. And it's not because there isn't money inside New York that Republicans can tap into, just think Wall Street. It's because New York Republicans can't muster any passion against her here.

So Republican advantages in enrollment here can be very misleading, and this is a throw the bums out year.

Massa's internal polls show his district at a statistical tie right now by the way. And here is a Ssptember 30th Press Release from his campaign citing polls showing the race a toss up:

http://www.massaforcongress.com/contentdetail.asp?contentid=661

P.S. and I agree that Reynolds is in real trouble here. That should be the first NY seat added to your list.

[Tom Rinaldo]

29. Also Spitzer is strong at the top of the ticket. Dems are motivated

We gleefully anticipate retaking the Governorship. We are HUNGRY! Republicans have no strong State Wide candidates this year, and they are pretty grim about it. Not much incentive for Republicans to turn out and vote here this year. And like I like to remind all my election integrity friends, there is no evoting in New York State this November. So if that happens to be a huge concern of yours, why not pick a Democratic candidate in New York to give some support to? It is NOT a factor here.

Actually there are quite a few additional races across the nation that are on the bubble which could go Democratic this year. The final results just depend on how much money and volunteer hours we all give between now and Election Day. I have no doubt that DU members alone are capable of swinging a few more seats into the Democratic column by our efforts alone if we really focus on that task, and every seat counts. A Democratic majority of 12 rather than 2 means we will be held hostage less frequently by conservative Democrats threatening to back the Republicans on some close key vote.

[warrior1]

10. Please tell me

we can dump some reps in CA.

[SteppingRazor]

23. I don't see how. District 4 seems the most competitive...

and even that's a long shot.

But why complain about CA? Most of your Reps are already Dem.

Be glad you're not in, say, Alabama ;)

[warrior1]

30. I was thinking

Pombo and doolittle ties the lobbiest would sink them.

Charlie Brown is debating doolittle tonight!!!!

[FrenchieCat]

14. Thanks for the info.......my comments,

Iowa, District 1
This open seat, formerly Republican, is the Democrats’ to lose. Republican Mike Whalen has not led in a single poll, the district went to Kerry by 7 points in 2004, and Democrat Bruce Braley has thus far defined the race, despite Whalen’s desperate attempts to paint him as “anti-troop.”

I saw this debate late last nite on C-Span....and anyone who would vote for the Republican that I saw which would be whalen, would have to be retarded!


Pennsylvania, District 10
Incumbent Republican Don Sherwood, a confirmed adulterer and alleged basher, will probably get smoked by Chris Carney, if only because so-called “values voters” will stay home on election day.

I saw this debate too, and thought that Carney did better....although he did not, at anytime, straighten out Mr. Sherwood on the fact that the War on Terror ain't the War on Iraq...which left me frustrated. But as a speaker and in reference to policy issues, Carney came out way ahead in that debate!

[Dinger]

15. What About Wisconsin, District 8? Kegen Is Leading gard (THANK GOD!)

Not by much, but it is the seat being vacated by mark green.

[SteppingRazor]

24. Another very close district that I wound up not having faith in in the end

Wis. Dis. 8 has been trending GOP for a long time now. The last time a Democrat won this seat was in 1996. Since then, Republicans have won by wider and wider margins every year -- in 2004, Mark Green won by a staggering 70-30 margin, and even Bush managed to win by 11 points.

[Jane Eyre]

17. You left out NC-11

Former pro-football player Heath Shuler is consistently ahead in the polls in his race against the Abramoff-connected Republican incumbent Charles Taylor. The last polls had Shuler about 11 points ahead. Shuler has raised more money than Taylor as well, though Taylor can self-finance. We should be able to take this one away from the Republicans.

[SteppingRazor]

25. NC-11 is certainly a possible pickup...

but Shuler needs to refocus the scandal magnet back on the Abramoff deals of Taylor, instead of Shuler's own shady real estate deals. I'm not convinced Shuler did anything wrong, but it won't matter -- the Clintons didn't do anything wrong in Whitewater, and the GOP still beat them senseless with it.

[Awsi Dooger]

18. I appreciate the info and realistic projections

+21 would be awesome and certainly feasible. The +40 and +50 crowd makes me sick since you get people believing it can happen.

In particular I hope you are correct about NV-3, my neighboring district. Tessa Hafen is a terrific candidate and such a contrast to the pathetic goof Jon Porter, who can never run on his own record but he raises big money through casino interests and savages the opponent with misleading charges. Hafen is from Nevada and her family has three generations of well known service, yet Porter is painting her as a carpetbagger because she worked the past 8 years for Harry Reid in Washington. The local media calls it unparalleled gall but Porter continues to run the ads, showing Hafen in a rental truck, "moving to Nevada months ago to run for congress."

[DaveinMD]

28. hey awsi

I think it will be between 25-30, but I'd be happy with the 21 projected here. 50 occurs with the tsunami. Possible, but don't count on it.

[Awsi Dooger]

46. I expect in the teens

I realize that's flimsy since we need +15. If I had to guess right now I'd put it smack on that 15 or slightly higher.

Admittedly, I've never studied House races carefully so I have far less confidence making a House projection than Senate or governor.

My belief is everything tends to drift back to the beginning so I put far less stock in late developments than most people. At the beginning of the cycle, and for years, the conventional wisdom was far fewer seats were in play due to gerryandered districts. I'm not forgetting that and I expect there are fewer seats in play than many of the current estimates.

I think we'll do great in the open seats but all the high numbers require taking a surreal percentage of GOP incumbents and IMO that's simply not likely. I expect a flurry of close decisions and we'll no doubt lose our share, causing the Diebold crew to scream. Of course, they'll ignore the ones we win narrowly.

[DaveinMD]

47. I really think

this is shaping up as close to a Tsunami election. The reason I say this is that the polls are picking up a sizeable change in voter identification.

[Awsi Dooger]

49. That's true

The two things I've been following all year are party identification and approval rating of the Democratic party. Both have been trending in our direction and I'm particularly encouraged the party approval number is now above 50% in every recent poll. It's never going to pay full dividend if the other side is considered horrid but your own brand name is also in the comparative dumpster.

I'm no doubt being too cautious. The most relevant example to this election is last November when Kaine and Corzine won easily and exceeded their poll numbers. That was post Katrina and Bush's approval rating had tanked. The past 11 months have merely worsened and reinforced everything that went into those two gov results. However, both were open races, no incumbent. I'm still very wary of knocking out so many incumbents, particularly in red states and districts. Those are where I anticipate the razor decisions, and how they fall determines whether it's mid level gains or a semi-tsunami.

On edit: I should mention the party ID has exploded in the post-Foley polling but I'm not accepting any of those numbers. I'll pay attention again in about two weeks after a natural ease and recoil. The question is how valid and accurate the individual polls are during this period. I'm going to be hesitant on them also, particularly House races.

The great aspect is any race that comes out of nowhere and flips will be in our favor. I remember my own district, NV-1, in '94 looked dead safe for our incumbent Jim Bilbray a week before the election. Mason-Dixon had him with a huge lead over John Ensign. Yes, that John Ensign. But the right wing Las Vegas Review Journal broke a story about a land deal that Bilbray was pushing through congress that supposedly benefitted a major Bilbray advisor to the tune of $7 million. The story exploded and Ensign took advantage of it and the perfect storm GOP year to upset Bilbray by 1400 votes. It's very possible Ensign would never have had a major political career minus that break and running in the perfect year. I'm sure we can still count on under the radar districts turning our way.

[terrya]

19. K and R. That's my thinking also.

I think Tammy Duckworth will win the Illinois 6th. She'll be an excellent addition to the House.

Good analysis, there. :thumbsup:

[gristy]

27. bookmarked!

Let's hope your prediction is the floor, not the ceiling. In 4 weeks we will know...

[SteppingRazor]

32. I tried to make it as middle of the road as possible...

If I was going to give myself a bracket, I'd predict, say, 18-24 pickups.

[bonito]

31. Yahoooo!

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[michaelpush]

33. That would be great, but,

If you plug-in the "fear factor" of the Republicans and, the "dumbness" factor of the "C" average citizen, you get between 8 & 10 seats....just a prediction, I hope I am totally wrong and its at least 15!

[SteppingRazor]

35. Yes, but I've never really been too concerned over your 2nd point...

After all, the vast majority of "C-average citizens" (love the way you put it, by the way) don't ever vote.

[michaelpush]

38. Dont know, but, if so,

I guess we are lucky there!

[trapandroll]

34. Could happen

Very sober analysis a la Cook and Rothenberg ... desperately hope it is right!!!!!!!!!!

[BrotherBuzz]

36. CA11 and CA4 are looking pretty interesting...

Pombo and Doolittle polls are not looking good.

Poll shows Pombo, McNerney just 2 points apart
http://www.recordnet.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061003/NEWS01/610030336/1001

......

Doolittle is in trouble

Benenson Strategy Group, a firm that also works with the DCCC, conducted the poll at the end of August. It shows Doolittle leading Brown by just 41 percent to 39 percent with 17 percent saying they didn’t know who they would vote for “if the election were held today.” The poll had a 4.9 percent margin of error. (note: Brown's poll is from August, and his rentless attacks on the Doolittle/Abramoff connection may have closed the gap)

http://www.thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Campaign/091306_doolittle.html


When all is said and done I think Democrats will pick up more than 30 seats, but don't tell the republicans that. ;)

[pinto]

39. The Modesto Bee has come out for McNerny over Pombo.

fwiw, The "Bees" are the papers of record up and down the Valley.

:kick:

[BrotherBuzz]

40. And the Sacramento 'Bee' is solidly behind Charlie Brown

It's ALL good!

[lojasmo]

37. MN 01

Democratic challenger leads entrenched Gil Gutknecht (R) in several polls.

[unhappycamper]

41. Wow!

Just. . . Wow! That's one hell of an analysis.

:thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

k&r

[lumberjack_jeff]

42. WA-08

not my district but I think Reichert is gonna lose to Darcy Burner.

edited to add:
Darcy kicks ass in debate.
http://www.kirkdorffer.com/ontheroadto2008/2006/10/burner-vs-reichert-debate-in-raw.shtml

[geniph]

44. It IS my district, Darcy Burner is a personal friend,

and she is going to kick Sheriff Hairspray (Officer Barbrady) to the curb this November! She beat him in primary numbers by a good 2000 votes and just stomped his butt in the first debate.

[OKNancy]

43. Great job

:applause:

[butterfly77]

45. Is anyone running against..

Orrin Hatch or Duncan Hunter or are their districts gerimandered.

[cmd]

48. It's not that I don't trust you, but

I think I'll continue working for Zack Space right up till the polls close.

[SteppingRazor]

50. Please do! These predictions only work if everyone else does the same...

works, that is. :hi:

[fujiyama]

51. Being that I really got interested in politics with the '00 election,

every election I've paid attention to has been a disappointment. It's sad when the '00 election was considered the high point, considering the last two disasters. Both '04 and '02 were truly terrible.

I'll be skeptical and pessimistic and be cautiously hopeful Dems take back atleast the House. Seeing the end of the republican revolution brings a huuuuuuge smile across my face!

[Clarkie1]

52. California, District 11.

That makes 22.