This President has a very low approval rating and the Republican congress is disliked more. The Republicans got a modest boost in early September with the series of * speeches and 9/11 five year focus. I think most informed watchers of the polls were waiting to see if the very slight boost would hold through a few polling cycles. I admit, I was concerned, but not convinced that they had a about a 3 to 5 percent increase. Then the Dems hit the perfect storm. The just released NIE memo showing that the Iraq war made us less safe. The surprise there is that it was in writing. Then Woodward decided to be a real journalist and report what is actually happening in this maladministration. I think those would have been enough to help us win the house. The election is very, very close.
Then our early holiday present--the Repuclican leadership covered up for a child predator for years. This is one that noone can defend or excuse. The crazies will try to blame all gay republicans and that's going to be very ugly. In the end, even that will help us. It will be difficult for the Reps. to run on gay bashing as the information comes out that so many of their own are gay. None of us are going to like this, but I see hope at the end of it all. I see it as very difficult for Republicans to use this as a political issue. Then we work to make sure all have equality in our society.
It wasn't Foley that caused the Republicans to lose their latest boost in the polls. It was the coverup, the inept leadership and how they handled it, and their base beginning to turn on them before this. Say hello to Speaker Pelosi.
Another take on this is offered by Josh Marshall. I look forward to his future analysis.
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/010216.php)
Just for future reference let's nip one pre-meme in the bud.
There are already a number of Republicans arguing that the election tide was beginning to turn their way before Hurricane Foley came ashore last Friday.
Not so.
At some point I'll write in greater detail about this. But I believe statistics, as well as observation, will show the claim is simply false.
Republicans and the president did get a modest but real boost in late August and the first couple weeks of September. By the middle of September it was reasonable to ask, as I think Charlie Cook did, whether the small GOP uptick was just a blip or the beginning of trend that would grow toward the November election.
From that point on though things began to change. It was observable in the polls. And it was most due, I believe, to the issue of Iraq moving back to center stage of news, with stories like the hidden NIE, the first hints of the Woodward and other stories. Also playing a role was the GOP infighting over the torture bill and the Ney indictment.
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