Red west shifting to blue

[n2doc]

RED WEST SHIFTING TO BLUE
Republicans' grip is loosening in the mountain states, giving moderate Democrats a chance to move in
Marc Sandalow, Washington Bureau Chief
Sunday, October 1, 2006



(10-01) 04:00 PDT Grand Junction, Colo. -- It was not many years ago that you could drive 1,000 miles east from the Bay Area without running into a Democratic officeholder. The Mountain West, with its open space and rugged landscape, was as reliably Republican as any region in the country, delivering the party's presidential candidates a huge electoral vote advantage, and providing the GOP its base in Congress. But the Republicans are losing their firm grip on the West. Montana, Arizona, New Mexico and Wyoming have Democratic governors. The U.S. Senate Democratic leader is from Nevada. Democrats took control of both houses of the Colorado Legislature in 2004 for the first time in more than 40 years, and now control at least one chamber in half the Mountain West states. Salt Lake City has a liberal mayor. Here on the western slope of the Colorado Rockies, conservative voters are represented by a Democrat in the state Assembly, a Democrat in Congress, and perhaps soon by a Democratic governor.

As Democrats on the coasts work to capture majorities in the House and Senate, expand control of statehouses, and win back the White House in 2008, they are increasingly looking to the interior West as fertile ground for unseating Republicans. By embracing more conservative candidates -- some oppose abortion rights and most are pro-gun -- Democrats hope that victories in the West can rebalance a national political map that has skewed against them since they lost the South decades ago. By investing in conservative strongholds such as Grand Junction, where this year the Daily Sentinel newspaper has endorsed more Democrats than Republicans, Democrats see a chance to take advantage of disenchantment over the GOP's social conservatism and win elections in a part of the country that has long been regarded as outside their grasp.

"The South will return to the Democratic Party only when economic downturn requires it,'' former Colorado Democratic Sen. Gary Hart wrote in a memo to Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean last summer. "The West provides the Democratic Party's greatest opportunity and represents its greatest future. National party leaders must develop a plan to win the West in the early 21st century, or risk settling into minority status for many years to come.'' The opportunity in the West is among the reasons that the party recently scheduled a presidential caucus in Nevada to be held a week before the New Hampshire primary in 2008, and Denver is among two finalists to play host to the party's 2008 presidential nominating convention. "Our whole theory is that the Democrats have to come out West if they want to win a national election,'' said Steve Farber, an influential Denver attorney who is co-chairman of the city's convention host committee.

Democrats in the nation's capital are paying attention. Dean, the quintessential button-down Yankee, has made a dozen trips to the Mountain states over the past year. Republicans now hold 20 of the 28 congressional seats and 12 of the 16 Senate seats. Democratic parity in the West alone would shrink the GOP's majority by 40 percent in the House and 80 percent in the Senate. This November, as many as 9 of the most competitive 50 House races are in the Mountain West. Democrats also have a chance to add two governors and a senator from the region. On a presidential level, many Democrats lamented in 2004 that a switch of only 60,000 votes in Ohio would have given Democratic Sen. John Kerry 20 additional electoral votes and the presidency. As author Ryan Sager points out in his book "Elephant in the Room,'' a swing of 60,000 votes in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico would have accomplished the same thing.

"There are moments that come along in the history of this country where there's a realignment of parties,'' Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer said in an interview.

more:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2006/10/01/MNG9HLGA931.DTL

[Joanne98]

1. YEPPER!

[napi21]

2. Deans 50 State program is helping this too!

I sure can't blame the votersforignoringagroup of candidates who saywe only need 20 States to win! I'd tell them to buzz off too!

[radfringe]

3. KOWABUNGA!!!!!! big blue wave? n/t

[Imagevision]

4. At this point you have to be pretty lame to keep pushing the GOP

These guyz only know $$$ values regardless of who gets killed or suffers end of story.

[starroute]

5. But how will it affect the Democratic Party?

I'm not pushing either side of the argument here -- I'm genuinely ambivalent.

I recall when the Dixiecrats seemed like an albatross around the neck of the rest of the Democrats, getting in the way of meaningful civil rights reform and a lot more. It felt like a relief when they ducked out and became Republicans.

On the other hand, since that happened the Republicans have been increasingly dominant, especially in presidental elections, where it seems the Democrats can only win with Southern candidates, if at all.

So, while I have no objection in theory to welcoming a bunch of rugged, libertarian-type Westerners into the Democratic Party, I'd hate to seem them becoming able to cast a veto over, say, meaningful environmental legislation.

If the thing is to be done, it has to be done right, and with a clear mutual understanding of where the party's priorities lie.

[NoodleBoy]

8. environmentalism is part of the western mindset

Seeing pristine lands destroyed for the sake of industries and suburbs pisses off all stripes of Westerners.

And as for the "libertarian" part of the West, it's mostly a matter of leaving people alone, it's just that for the last thirty years the Republicans have cast things like universal health care as tyrannical government intrusion, and warrantless wiretaps as a healthy national security effort. We've been able to point out that dichotomy to alot of Westerners, who are also people generally opposed to the patriot act. it's just a matter of talking to the West, not giving up because of the stereotype.

[Recursion]

9. Not sure about that

I'd hate to seem them becoming able to cast a veto over, say, meaningful environmental legislation.

Hmm... I honestly don't think these guys are in the pocket of the mines and corporate farms. The big conflicts I would see are mentioned in the article: women's choice and guns. Choice is pretty much a zero-compromise issue with me, except in the sense that I'd rather have an anti-choice democrat than an anti-choice republican. As far as guns, well, I'm one of those nutty gun-huggers the rest of the party keeps pretending don't exist :)

[AspenRose]

6. Yes, yes, yes

Gary Hart is a very wise man. He's made some mistakes, but I ain't mad at him....

:bounce:

[NoodleBoy]

7. kind of old news

I'm in the West, and we've been seeing the signs for maybe three or four years.

It's not like we're suddenly going to become New England, though.

To be honest, and this is something alot of people don't like to hear, it's been a crop of moderates who've shown Dems from across the spectrum how to win in the West.

a pretty good blog about this stuff is www.westerndemocrat.com

[Awsi Dooger]

11. That's exactly right, moderates can win

Sites like this indeed may not like to hear it, but they are masochistic morons not to believe it. I'm a handicapper not someone who pretends I can forcefeed my politics upon others. In this state, Nevada, a liberal is very unlikely to succeed statewide. It's playing out in the governors race right now. Dina Titus is an outstanding candidate and far superior to her bumbling opponent Jim Gibbons, but she is a liberal in a red state. The latest polling had her retaining only 59% of Democratic support. I guartantee that would be 20-30% higher if she were considered more moderate.

It's a big danger to the party if the primary voters insist on nominating liberals in states that won't support them in the general election.

[Awsi Dooger]

10. Still disappointing here in Nevada

We have much better candidates this cycle but the polling is not friendly. Among the six statewide races we had one tiny lead in the Review Journal polls last week, although I think the attorney general and secretary of state races have potential to be won.

The local political pundits always talk about how red Nevada is but on progressive sites it's listed as certain to be blue in the near future. Frankly, I don't sense much change in the local politics after being here since the '80s, despite the population explosion. An outstanding moderate Democrat can win especially if he/she has ties to Clark County, but otherwise this state prefers the Republican.