Do the Democrats have a chance to pick up Mark Foley's House seat?

[terrya]

I'm not familiar with the political makeup of that district, so forgive my ignorance.

If there were a chance, I would hope that Howard Dean would shovel as much money as he could down there.

[babylonsister]

1. I think it's too late to run anyone else, so the Dems could win

by default. I guess repugs could write a name in. Someone with more knowledge will pipe up, I hope.

[spindrifter]

4. No--it looks like they can run someone else--

the freepers have been looking into the Florida laws:

http://www.leg.state.fl.us/Statutes/index.cfm?App_mode=Display_Statute&Search_String=&URL=Ch0100/Sec111.HTM

And it looks like the Governor could call for a special primary election to remove Foley's name from the ballot.

Here is their discussion: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1711300/posts

On edit--the origianl link was screwed up; I think I fixed it.

[babylonsister]

7. I stand corrected. Here's the WaPo story:

WP: Foley's name on ballot, but GOP can designate recipient of his votes Updated at 11:09 AM

WP, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
Florida's 16th District: Rep. Foley Drops Out

....Rep. Foley's name will remain on the Nov. 7 ballot, although Republicans will be allowed to designate a candidate who will receive all of the votes cast for the outgoing incumbent.

The legal explanation for the so-called "replacement candidate" goes back to 2004 when former Wilton Manor Mayor Jim Stork (D-Fla.) dropped out of the race against Rep. Clay Shaw (R-Fla.) with just 40 days remaining before the election. At the time, the Republican Secretary of State denied Stork's request to withdraw, meaning that Democrats were left without a candidate. The Democratic Party appealed and won a court decision that allowed officials to pick Robin Rorapaugh as the replacement candidate who would receive Stork's votes. Shaw won easily.

Here's what the Florida election statute says:

(4)(a) In the event that death, resignation, withdrawal, removal, or any other cause or event should cause a party to have a vacancy in nomination which leaves no candidate for an office from such party, the Department of State shall notify the chair of the appropriate state, district, or county political party executive committee of such party; and, within 5 days, the chair shall call a meeting of his or her executive committee to consider designation of a nominee to fill the vacancy. The name of any person so designated shall be submitted to the Department of State within 7 days after notice to the chair in order that the person designated may have his or her name on the ballot of the ensuing general election. If the name of the new nominee is submitted after the certification of results of the preceding primary election, however, the ballots shall not be changed and the former party nominee's name will appear on the ballot. Any ballots cast for the former party nominee will be counted for the person designated by the political party to replace the former party nominee. If there is no opposition to the party nominee, the person designated by the political party to replace the former party nominee will be elected to office at the general election. For purposes of this paragraph, the term "district political party executive committee" means the members of the state executive committee of a political party from those counties comprising the area involving a district office....

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2006/09/foley_to_...

[tkmorris]

8. My initial reading indicates no removal

According to what I read in the Florida law Foley's name cannot be removed at this stage. They can (and will) nominate a replacement but his name will not appear on the ballot, Foley's will. Any vote cast for Foley will be credited to the replacement.

So what effect will all that have? I've no real idea, but I do hope the confusion allows Mahoney to win the seat for the Dems. By the way, Mahoney is no liberal firebrand. About all we can hope for is another seat in the 'D' column, helping to give us a majority.

[spindrifter]

10. And maybe Mahoney will go along with the

Democratic majority when it counts. That will be a help.

[liberalpragmatist]

2. The district only voted 52% for Bush

So it's a potentially competitive district.

Also, according to Florida election law, Republicans can choose a new candidate, but Foley's name WILL REMAIN ON THE BALLOT and cannot be replaced; any votes for Foley instead go to his replacement. There's a very good chance then that Democrats will pick up this seat.

[lostnfound]

3. ?FL District 16 is composed of 46.4% Gore voters, 51.9% Bush

These are the proportions after the redistricting that occurred in 2002 according to this:
http://www.ncec.org/redistricting/districtb972.html?district=fl108

I don't know the district either but I'd guess that would make it a real possibility.

[lostnfound]

6. According to Wikipedia, Foley won 68% to 32% in 2004

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._House_election,_2004

[Glenda]

5. "any votes for Foley will count toward the party's choice."

"Florida Republicans planned to meet as soon as Monday to name a replacement in Foley's district, which President Bush won with 55 percent in 2004 and is now in play for November. Though Florida ballots have already been printed with Foley's name and cannot be changed, any votes for Foley will count toward the party's choice."

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2006/09/30/rep_foley_quits_over_explicit_messages/

[divineorder]

9. Yes We Do...

http://www.timmahoneyforflorida.com

Tim Mahoney is running here for the Democrats, and has asked for an investigation!

[skipos]

11. I would think that many Republicans would have trouble pulling the lever

for Foley even though the votes would go to another Repub candidate.

[Raksha]

16. That's what I think too. n/t

[peaches2003]

12. Could Repug 'replacement' candidate end up being

Jebbie? It makes sense to me. He has the name recognition to not have to even be on the ballot as long as voters knew he was the replacement candidate for Foley. His governor's term is up. He would again be saving his brother's ass which seems to be his role in life now. I'd think he'd do it and then if he doesn't run for Pres or VP in 2008 he could run for the Senate when Martinez seat is up for reelction- 2012, I think.

It sounds exactly like what they will pull to try to hold Foley's seat. They can't give up a seat if they don't have to.

[divineorder]

13. Step Down for Jebbie

Instead of highlighting his leadership potentials, he would be one of many, at best a Freshman Congressman that only occasionally gets some press. Jebbie would be better off going the think-tank or talk show circuit, where he could easily take advantage of any opportunity that presented itself, get national attention, and easily make more money.

[peaches2003]

15. It's what is best for Georgie and the family

He would be asked (or told) to do this with no thought of what is best for himself, but what is best for the King. Keeping the seat is what Georgie needs and he doesn't give a damn about Jeb. What happened in FL in 2000 was what was needed for the Chimp regardless of what it did to Jeb's future.

[Raksha]

17. Just the very fact that ANY Republican is a last-minute replacement

for Foley is going to count against that person, regardless of qualifications. ALL it's going to do is remind everyone why the replacement was necessary. That goes double if that replacement is Jebbie!

[AlGore-08.com]

20. Only for Jebbie, it's a step down to run for the House

As Governor, you're the chief executive of the state, which can be a platform to the White House. Running for a seat in the House would be a big step down for him and make it harder for him to run for President in the future (if that's what he actually wants to do).

In order to suck the oxygen out of the room, the GOP might try to run another Bush (like the nephew I call "Ricky Martin Bush") or some GOPer with a rep as a descent person and good public servant that they talk out of retirement (like we did with Fritz Mondale when Paul Wellstone passed away) or some sports or entertainment celebrity (like Aaaaaahnold).

[Zynx]

14. It voted 55% for Bush in 2004, which isn't overwhelming.

This is bad enough combined with a general Democratic trend to put the seat in our hands.

[sandnsea]

19. St Lucie & Palm Beach went Kerry

Maybe Charlotte County swung that district in the other direction. But based on these numbers, it certainly looks within reach.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2004,_in_Florida

[snowbear]

18. Tweety said voters there will be too REPULSED to vote for ReTHUGS

... for that seat.

If biased-brained Tweety even believes that to be the case... as well as 99% of the talking heads and political pundits (from what I've seen on CNN and MSNBC) all agree ReTHUGS are toast there---

.... it is mind-boggling that where ReTHUGS are getting the majority of CONFIDENCE is right here on this DU Forum.

Look at what the SOB did!!!

Wake the hell up!