AP: Colo. Governor's Race Seen As a Tossup

[Eugene]

Colo. Governor's Race Seen As a Tossup

By STEVEN K. PAULSON

DENVER Sep 26, 2006 (AP)— First came word that the running mate picked
by GOP gubernatorial candidate Bob Beauprez had compared same-sex marriage
to bestiality. Then Beauprez apologized for overstating the abortion rate
among blacks.

Since late August, it has been one problem after another for Beauprez,
a congressman from the Denver suburbs who was once considered the
front-runner in the race to succeed outgoing Republican Gov. Bill Owens.

Instead, he is in a dogfight with Democrat Bill Ritter, a former Denver
district attorney who has tried to shed his big-city image by visiting every
one of Colorado's 64 counties.

Some Republicans are getting jittery about the race, and some worry that the
problems dogging Beauprez are indications of a deeper rift in the Republican
Party stemming from a battle last year over tax breaks.

-snip-

Full article: http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=2493295

[rockymountaindem]

1. What a load of bull!

Ritter is leading by 17 percent in the latest poll, and coloradopols.com, the leading state political blog, has his odds at 3-1 compared to Beauprez' 10-1. The last time Beauprez was considered the frontrunner was in March, maybe. Since then he's been in slow-mo self destruct mode, and Ritter has been trouncing him all around. No way Beauprez wins, and it probably won't even be close.

[eleny]

3. I read an article posted here that BB might even drop out

Can't recall the source. It asserted how far down in the polls Beauprez was that he might consider it so they could get someone else. Sounds far fetched but 17% does have to make one wonder about his candidacy. Living in his district I have had angst over being represented by someone who didn't seem to have an original thought in 4 years.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. The odds on Coloradopols.com are ludicrous

He simply has no idea what he is doing in terms of odds. And that's being kind.

Let's put it this way, if I could bet into his odds I wouldn't have to do anything else. How can Ritter be 3/1 and Beauprez at 10/1? Utterly ignorant. That means you could bet on both candidates and guarantee a profit regardless of who wins. Bet 10 to win 30 and bet 10 to win 100. So I put up $20 and the worst I can do is end up with $40. Not bad. Damn shame that guy isn't the chief oddsmaker here in Las Vegas.

I guess he's trying to establish a relationship between the two, that Ritter has more than 3 times the chance Beauprez does, but assigning the odds in that fashion makes him look like a fool. In a 2-man race you should have someone less than even money and the other one correspondingly above even money. That would be true odds, minus any bookmaker juice, or take.

In this case, let's look at Tradesports. Ritter is trading at 90, which means he theoretically has a 90% chance to win. Beauprez is at 10. So the odds on this race should be Ritter at 1/9 and Beauprez at 9/1.

[Democrats_win]

2. Fricken ABC: headline is a complete lie!!!! Not a tossup!

[tridim]

4. The name Beauprez is almost as vomit inducing as Bush.

He's terrible, even for a Repuke. Colorado will not vote for this man. Maybe Colorado Springs (AKA Fundie Land) will, but not Colorado.

[skipos]

5. Look at these polls! It IS a toss up!

:eyes:
Rasmussen: Ritter 56%, Beauprez 34% - 09/26/06
Rocky Mountain News: Ritter 50%, Beauprez 33% - 09/18/06
SurveyUSA: Ritter 50%, Beauprez 40% - 08/18/06

[rockymountaindem]

6. I just came back here to post the Rassmussen poll

Who is ABC trying to fool? Space aliens? People whose first language is Etruscan? Anybody can see that if this race is a toss-up, it can only be so because the Republicans are tossing it to the Democrats, and it's only a matter of time before it lands in the blue column.

How dumb do they think we are? Oh, I just answered my own question...

[Hawkeye-X]

7. Last I checked, Ritter is ahead by 17

And we just forced the SoS to do some true security checking on the vaporware or go to paper balloting.