Maybe B*sh gets set up for a fall here -

[Joe for Clark]

This is from Excerpts from BillCara.com

...I think we are a month or less away from our own Little Bighorn or D-Day.

“D” stands for “Designated” because that is the day we, in the future, will remember as being the beginning of the end to this great 2002-2006 Bull market.

Maybe the tide will turn after an accumulation of negative earnings surprises. More likely, the end will come like a flash out of the darkness, with little warning, and even less understanding.

But, like October 19, 1987, we will all know it when we see it.

Circle your calendar for October 17-18 this year because that is a 24-hour period when the U.S. Industrial Production, Housing Starts, National Association of Home Builders housing market index, International Capital inflow-outflow data, PPI, CPI, and Crude oil inventory data is reported. Canada’s version of the FOMC report is also issued at that time.

So it strikes me that perhaps this coalition of economic forces hitting the market from all angles on October 17-18 may terminate the stock market cycle. And, reverse the trend from Bull to Bear.

Now- the thing that gets me is from the end on July -

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- Legendary oil trader T. Boone Pickens said Monday he is betting that U.S. crude oil futures will top $80 a barrel by year's end, though he is less optimistic that prices will hit the triple-digit mark.

"I think you'll see $80 before the first of the year," the 78-year-old Texan told Reuters in a telephone interview. "I think oil's going up."

The full interview is on cnnmoney.com

Now here is the thing - Pickens knew damn well what was coming down in the futures market at the time - the guy is a genuis. He is - his little Mesa Petroleum company took down Gulf oil once - my dad was a director of operations at Gulf at the time - certainly, no love lost between them - but damn, the guy is a force.

Look, I am not saying that prices can't be manipulated - they CAN. But I am saying they may not be being manipulate as it appears.

I do think - we may well be seeing big capital selling this administration down the "big river" here. Don't be too surprised - I won't be. You really think B*sh means something to the Rockefellar family - for gods sake, look at Jay -

You know, the best thing I think about the seven sisters running oil - they were a family operated situation.

Prior to 2000 B*sh would not be allowed to park cars for these guys - and I am pretty sure he won't be after 2008, either.

Joe

[aquart]

1. We're in a bull market?

He's kidding, right?

[Jackpine Radical]

2. Certainly we're in a bull market.

Where did you think all that bullshit was coming from, anyway?

[Joe for Clark]

4. We are bull until confirmed otherwise -

They measure from the 2001 lows, you know.

Not that it should be.

It is the way it is looked at though.

Hasn't taken out the "Clinton highs" yet, by a long shot.

Safe bet it won't, either.

Joe

[Imagevision]

10. Absolutely, we're in a bullsh*t market courtesy of 11/7 elections

[leveymg]

3. Oil is dropping because traders don't believe the Iran war scare.

Existing housing data came in today - 1.7% drop. Bubble is deflating, but not a crash - not yet, anyway.

Global oil inventories are at near capacity. Everyone had expected a big crisis to break out, but it hasn't.

Bush is going to manage a retail gas station in Tulsa, and quickly burn the place down. See, http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/4/29/102911/319

[Joe for Clark]

5. Well, I don't believe in the easter bunny, either.

Here is a story - many years ago, I was in my third year at school. It was 1979 - there was an "embargo" on oil at the time. Gas kept going up and up. It was reported widely that gas was going to 2.00 a gallon at the time. I was scared. That would have meant more than half of my paycheck.

You know what Dad said to me - It can't happen. We can turn to synthetics for less than that price. I know he knew what that meant now - he bombed Zeitz and those plants way back when - so I KNOW what we can do if pushed. Damn, they knew how many years that would last - more than a thousand years at then current consumption levels.

I worked for Dad. The Mellons owned Gulf at the time. In all those years I think I got to meet some of the Mellon family once, as a tag a long to Dad. And I will tell you SQUARE IN THE FACE - they wouldn't consider B*sh as an equal - they shouldn't. HE IS NOT.

Now Dad got in cause he was high level "hired help" - I suppose. But my memory of it was that that family did have - ethics. You know??

I think they were good, just.

And they knew BS when they say it, too.

All these years later, I think something is going on - but I'll tell you - I doubt it is what it appears to be.

Joe

[leveymg]

6. The Rockefellers, Morgans didn't consider this man their equal either, but

they put their money behind him, anyway:

[Joe for Clark]

7. I guess we will find out soon. But imo - I don't think they are

gonna back B*sh here.

Not to be too cynical, but if they were, wouldn't the Dow be putting in its high at the end of October? Sure looks to me like its doing it right now.

Who am I really - just an accountant from the Valley. But I saw some things growing up - perceptions that stick with me.

I don't know that much about the Morgans. I do know some things about the Mellons and I think the Rockefellars - I think. They are gonna back family first - I am pretty sure.

I listen when Jay says things - very closely.

Joe

[KoKo]

8. What you say is very interesting and I hope is true...but

Jay Rockefeller seems to have been the family "outcast." He put his letter about questions on the NSA Spying program in a vault (like a coward would do) rather than speaking out. He disagreed with Robert's "9/11 Intelligence Report" and I saw him visibly distressed at a joint press conference where he said he wished the "Minority Report" was able to be made available. All that anquish on his face and yet he behaved like a coward again by not coming out and attacking Roberts. (and he doesn't seemed to have leaked it).

He was the one who broke with his family and ran as a Dem way back. I wonder if the Rockefeller's have any power left given that they've had to sell off so many family assets like Rockefeller Center.

Hasn't the Oil Game changed with all the buyouts and mergers? I don't think families run the business anymore. Any info you can add that would give more insight would be appreciated...because I've been hoping that at some point "BIG BUSINESS" would turn on Bush...but they've been making so much money off the Repugs loosening all restrictions that were put in place by FDR that I think they are hoping the big "Party" for the Hedgefunds and the rest continues on forever ...or until it collapses in the Biggest Crime Scandal (aside from Iraq Invasion) of the 21st Century.

[Joe for Clark]

11. He was pretty back door - but he comes out more and more

now. Like he's morphing. It is facinating to me to watch - telling.

I knew the situations in 1983 - very, very well. They are similar now. I had worked for Dad - had my accounting degree and had gone back to school (I really liked school). So it was interesting to me - you know, where does school end and real life begin - those kind of questions.

Look, dad was a director of the company at the time - he was a force in Califorina politics even - but clearly even he was a little pissant in the scheme of things.

I know enough to know - the complexity of these things are far beyond anything that will ever be public. In 1983 Pickens group took on the Mellons. I have read the accounts of it, it was a big story in school even, at the time. Trust me, what was really going on has never been reported. I know. I got to live through it. And I know - they weigh family interests a lot more than you might think. That is the only reason the fight over City ever happened.

I watch Jay, I watch him change over time. I watch Goldman dumping funds to the dems. SO I do have a reasonable hope that larger interests and we are on the same page here.

They were when FDR was president, too, I think - in a very good way.

Joe

[Imagevision]

9. Regardless of who wins big on 11/7 - Gas prices will rocket back up

that is a given. -- Anyone pissed or disappointed live in a dream world...!

[Joe for Clark]

12. I doubt the low prices last til November - I think we

saw the low already.

Even if you believed that big oil was pushing oil prices to support the gop - well, nobody stays behind a losing cause for too long.

You do understand the people hurt by low prices ARE the oil companies? They are.

I think someone screwed with the pricing - but they are SO on the wrong side of history.

If it is gop backers, they sure blew their load too quick.

Either way -

We win.

Game set match.

Joe