More Updates on Hot Senate Races

[Bob Geiger]

We took a brief look yesterday at some of this year's most hotly-contested U.S. Senate races and today we'll examine a bunch more.

New Jersey: Robert Menendez (D), Tom Kean Jr. (R)

Latest Polls:

• Quinnipiac September 20, 2006: Menendez 45% Kean 48%

• Strategic Vision September 14, 2006: Menendez 40% Kean 44%

• Zogby Interactive September 11, 2006: Menendez 40.4% Kean 40.2%

Pollster.com average of last five polls: Menendez 41% Tom Kean Jr. 44%

Comments: This is getting way too close for comfort, despite my thinking that whatever slim lead Kean has is based solely on confusion among dumb Republican voters who think the elder, well-known Kean is running and not his vacuous son. The Menendez camp needs to make some major strides in the next few weeks, as the national GOP is seeing this as their best chance to snatch a Democratic seat and it's only a matter of time before the big swift-boat money starts coming into play in the Garden State. Menendez has $5 million more than Kean in his campaign warchest and he needs to start using it now, not in late October.

* * * * *Maryland: Ben Cardin (D), Michael Steele (R)

Latest Polls:

• SurveyUSA September 20, 2006: Cardin 47% Steele 48%

• Rasmussen September 13, 2006: Cardin 50% Steele 43%

• Zogby/WSJ September 5, 2006: Cardin 49% Steele 40%

Pollster.com average of last five polls: Cardin 48% Steele 42%

Comments: There's been a debate in the Progressive blog world over how good Steele's quirky television ads are and I'm one of the people who thinks they are not only effective, but they're partially responsible for his surge in the polls. This may not end up being as close as it looks right now -- this is true-blue Maryland, after all -- but Democratic nominee Ben Cardin needs to get his primary foe Kweisi Mfume into a back room and beg for some very visible support in the black community. Maryland's voter base is almost one-quarter African-American and the charismatic and respected Mfume may be just what Cardin needs to keep Steele from being this competitive.

* * * * *Missouri: Claire McCaskill (D), Jim Talent (R)

Latest Polls:

• Rasmussen September 15, 2006: McCaskill 45% Talent 42%

• SurveyUSA September 14, 2006: McCaskill 48% Talent 47%

• Zogby/WSJ September 11, 2006: McCaskill 45% Talent 48.9%

Pollster.com average of last five polls: McCaskill 46% Talent 47%

Comments: This is going to be one of the down-to-the-wire races and could go either way at this point. Talent is your standard-issue, rubber-stamping Republican, but hasn’t managed to do anything overt to anger Missouri voters -- except side with Bush on the stem-cell research veto, while the majority of voters support that science. Missouri also has a stem-cell initiative on the ballot this fall, which should help McCaskill. This race is totally deadlocked but Talent has a ton more money than McCaskill, which means the Democratic nominee could be in trouble when they crank up the television slime machine.

Continued... Please go to BobGeiger.com to read more.

[Blutodog]

1. NJ

Kean will win because Corzine isn't really doing anything to help Menendez and Menendez is a lousy corrupt hack that feels he has some right to be Senator. Kean Jr. is part of the NJ aristocracy a nobody with a famous ex-Gov./9/11 Commissioner daddy who bankrupted NJ in the 80's but was a Reagan guy so he was popular anyway. The son will win for no good reason except the D's will throw this seat away. In a yr. when just about any Demo. should be able to win the Demos. in Nj are doing a lousy job of helping their own. If we lose the Senate this yr. it will ironically because of Gov.Corzine.

[wiley]

20. Pissed at Corzine are you?

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/21/nyregion

By JONATHAN MILLER
Published: September 21, 2006

The Internet postings came from people calling themselves “cleanupnj,” “usedtobeblue” and “AmadeusNJ.” They said they were concerned Democrats, “lifelong liberals,” and they were troubled by the United States senator from New Jersey, Robert Menendez.

Mr. Menendez, they said, was up to no good. For instance, did you notice that a Congressional lawyer who Mr. Menendez said cleared him of ethics issues regarding a controversial real estate deal died last year? Wasn’t there something fishy about that?

But the liberal Democratic hosts of BlueJersey.com, the Web log where such comments were posted, smelled something fishy about the postings, and said they traced them to a computer inside the campaign headquarters of Mr. Menendez’s Republican opponent, Thomas H. Kean Jr.

They suspect the person behind the postings, which have appeared on the site regularly since July, is Mr. Kean’s campaign spokeswoman, Jill Hazelbaker. Ms. Hazelbaker called the accusations “nonsense,” and said neither she nor anyone else she knows of in the office had anything to do with the postings. “I’ve never e-mailed them nor posted on the Web site,” she said on Wednesday. “It’s a blog. You can’t believe what’s posted on blogs.” She declined to make Mr. Kean available to discuss the matter.

The Kean campaign’s technical adviser said that the Internet protocol, or I.P., address that linked the posts to the Kean headquarters was an old one, “from over a month ago.” But an e-mail message Ms. Hazelbaker sent to a reporter on Wednesday shares the same I.P. address......

[NJmaverick]

2. Menendez is a victim of a Star Ledger smear compaign

along with the Republican control of the Justice department. Creating a scandal where none exists. The Star-Ledger is a totally corrupt right wing controlled Newspaper.

[Pab Sungenis]

3. It's not the Kean name, it's the Menendez corruption.

Menendez is a corrupt poltician from a corrupt machine in a corrupt county, and now it's coming back to haunt us all.

We need a major purge of the bosses here in NJ. Problem is they're so well entrenched, we stand little chance of that, and it's going to keep biting us in the ass.

[The Wizard]

7. Tommy Boy

Tommy boy is the Paris Hilton of New Jersey politics, having lived off a trust fund and family name without accomplishing anything noteworthy. Tommy boy is another junior that we do not need in Washington to rubber stamp more of Bush's failed polices. Kindly furnish any information you have regarding corruption and Bob Menendez. It's not that Tommy boy has voted for legislation putting money in the pockets of people who made a "campaign contribution" a few minutes prior to his vote. We call it pay-to-play.
Tommy boy has taken substantial money from Ku Klux Karl and Dick Cheney who came here for major fund raisers. Tommy boy refuses to be seen with Rove or Cheney. He should follow in his father's footsteps and edit TV movies for ABC. Cheney, Rove and Tommy boy, perfect together.

[brentspeak]

8. I wouldn't call Menendez corrupt, but you are correct that

the Hudson Cty Democratic machine is a mess of corruption. A cesspool of corruption, is probably the better way of putting it.

Menendez has been a party "boss" type for years, and has made all kinds of backroom handshake deals, as well as throwing his weight around once too many times. Nothing illegal, but unethical. His votes in Congress have been excellent, but Corzine was a numbskull to not realize Menendez' hometown, past reputation would be an effective GOP issue to hammer over Menendez' head. Either Rothman or Andrews would have been much better picks.

[The Wizard]

11. There were several candidates

Corzine could have picked. Menendez was in a safe seat in a very blue district. His ethnic background will play well in the cities. Corzine carried the state by 200,000, with 80,000 plurality coming from Essex. The road to state wide office goes through the population centers. Giving people a reason to vote is the hard part.

[wiley]

21. Sounds fishy, babe. What's Up?

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/21/nyregion

By JONATHAN MILLER
Published: September 21, 2006

The Internet postings came from people calling themselves “cleanupnj,” “usedtobeblue” and “AmadeusNJ.” They said they were concerned Democrats, “lifelong liberals,” and they were troubled by the United States senator from New Jersey, Robert Menendez.

Mr. Menendez, they said, was up to no good. For instance, did you notice that a Congressional lawyer who Mr. Menendez said cleared him of ethics issues regarding a controversial real estate deal died last year? Wasn’t there something fishy about that?

But the liberal Democratic hosts of BlueJersey.com, the Web log where such comments were posted, smelled something fishy about the postings, and said they traced them to a computer inside the campaign headquarters of Mr. Menendez’s Republican opponent, Thomas H. Kean Jr.

They suspect the person behind the postings, which have appeared on the site regularly since July, is Mr. Kean’s campaign spokeswoman, Jill Hazelbaker. Ms. Hazelbaker called the accusations “nonsense,” and said neither she nor anyone else she knows of in the office had anything to do with the postings. “I’ve never e-mailed them nor posted on the Web site,” she said on Wednesday. “It’s a blog. You can’t believe what’s posted on blogs.” She declined to make Mr. Kean available to discuss the matter.

The Kean campaign’s technical adviser said that the Internet protocol, or I.P., address that linked the posts to the Kean headquarters was an old one, “from over a month ago.” But an e-mail message Ms. Hazelbaker sent to a reporter on Wednesday shares the same I.P. address......

[bigdarryl]

12. I live hear in NJ and I'm afraid Melendez is going to lose this..

race the dem's should have picked Congressmen Rob Andrews as the Senator for the remaining of Corzines term.Andrews is a good guy and is liked by New Jersians he would have had a better chance to win this seat but the problem is the democratic machine and the powers that be that control the party don't care that much for him.

[LocalGuy]

16. Corzine should have picked Andrews

Rob is a intelligent, hard-working, honest public official. He probably doesn't always play nice with the machine, but that's why most people like him and keep electing him.
We can't lose this seat however

[Pab Sungenis]

19. I'm not telling people not to vote for Menendez.

But if he loses, we have to put the blame where it really belongs.

[wiley]

22. Comments on this?

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/21/nyregion

By JONATHAN MILLER
Published: September 21, 2006

The Internet postings came from people calling themselves “cleanupnj,” “usedtobeblue” and “AmadeusNJ.” They said they were concerned Democrats, “lifelong liberals,” and they were troubled by the United States senator from New Jersey, Robert Menendez.

Mr. Menendez, they said, was up to no good. For instance, did you notice that a Congressional lawyer who Mr. Menendez said cleared him of ethics issues regarding a controversial real estate deal died last year? Wasn’t there something fishy about that?

But the liberal Democratic hosts of BlueJersey.com, the Web log where such comments were posted, smelled something fishy about the postings, and said they traced them to a computer inside the campaign headquarters of Mr. Menendez’s Republican opponent, Thomas H. Kean Jr.

They suspect the person behind the postings, which have appeared on the site regularly since July, is Mr. Kean’s campaign spokeswoman, Jill Hazelbaker. Ms. Hazelbaker called the accusations “nonsense,” and said neither she nor anyone else she knows of in the office had anything to do with the postings. “I’ve never e-mailed them nor posted on the Web site,” she said on Wednesday. “It’s a blog. You can’t believe what’s posted on blogs.” She declined to make Mr. Kean available to discuss the matter.

The Kean campaign’s technical adviser said that the Internet protocol, or I.P., address that linked the posts to the Kean headquarters was an old one, “from over a month ago.” But an e-mail message Ms. Hazelbaker sent to a reporter on Wednesday shares the same I.P. address......

[Pab Sungenis]

26. I'm not a Republican troll.

I'm a long time Democrat, and Secretary of the county Democratic Committee.

Yes, Kean has been sending out trolls. We know he has, and we have evidence.

Once again, I'm voting for Menendez because he's better than the alternative and the race is too close to lodge a protest vote. But we can, and should have, done better, and if we lose, we'll only have the North Jersey machines' corruption to blame.

Do you deny that we need to root the bad apples out of our party once this election is over?

[wiley]

27. Let's talk in December.

I just wanted your response. The others did not respond.

Jersey is lucky to have you.

[wiley]

23. Local Guy? Come on.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/21/nyregion

By JONATHAN MILLER
Published: September 21, 2006

The Internet postings came from people calling themselves “cleanupnj,” “usedtobeblue” and “AmadeusNJ.” They said they were concerned Democrats, “lifelong liberals,” and they were troubled by the United States senator from New Jersey, Robert Menendez.

Mr. Menendez, they said, was up to no good. For instance, did you notice that a Congressional lawyer who Mr. Menendez said cleared him of ethics issues regarding a controversial real estate deal died last year? Wasn’t there something fishy about that?

But the liberal Democratic hosts of BlueJersey.com, the Web log where such comments were posted, smelled something fishy about the postings, and said they traced them to a computer inside the campaign headquarters of Mr. Menendez’s Republican opponent, Thomas H. Kean Jr.

They suspect the person behind the postings, which have appeared on the site regularly since July, is Mr. Kean’s campaign spokeswoman, Jill Hazelbaker. Ms. Hazelbaker called the accusations “nonsense,” and said neither she nor anyone else she knows of in the office had anything to do with the postings. “I’ve never e-mailed them nor posted on the Web site,” she said on Wednesday. “It’s a blog. You can’t believe what’s posted on blogs.” She declined to make Mr. Kean available to discuss the matter.

The Kean campaign’s technical adviser said that the Internet protocol, or I.P., address that linked the posts to the Kean headquarters was an old one, “from over a month ago.” But an e-mail message Ms. Hazelbaker sent to a reporter on Wednesday shares the same I.P. address......

[speedoo]

4. Saw an effective Menendez ad about 2 hors ago.

He's using LaMont's strategy of tying his ooponent to Bush. Has pictures of Kean, Jr. to show it's the kid, not the father, and repeats "Kean and Bush have no plan to exit Iraq... I do. I voy=ted against Bush's war... Kean supports it."

It should help a lot.

[Cassandra]

14. I saw that one too.

Straightforward and to the point.

[Eric J in MN]

5. Donate this weekend to one of them.

Robert Menendez of New Jersey:
http://www.menendez2006.com

Claire McCaskill of Missouri:
http://www.claireonline.com

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[President Kerry]

10. i'm afraid he wouldn't have support from the right or the left.

This country is too polarized for him. His saving grace is that he's from Nebraska.

[Ignacio Upton]

9. Please don't use Zogby polls

They're full of crap. Also, I'm not sure if we can say that the MD Senate race has Steele in the lead, because that SUSA poll is the only one to say so, while Rasmussen shows Cardin up by seven. I'm waiting for a third independent pollster to come out with results.

[Hawaii Hiker]

17. I thought the Rasmussen polls

was the one that was biased towards the right & that Zogby was more independent?...

In any event, democrats are in a good postion to pick up some senate seats regardless of what poll is being utilized..

[TheVirginian]

29. There are two types of Zogby polls

Zogby International have sound methodology and should be trusted. Zogby Interactive polls are absolute turds. Rasmussen has sound methology, though it isn't as sound as most independent pollsters (Strategic Vision, Mason Dixon, Quinnipiac, etc.)

[usregimechange]

13. Claire is going to do it with your help

[Awsi Dooger]

15. Agreed, Steele's ads are very effective

Cardin will win but that race will be closer than it should be, largely due to the creative Steele commercials.

And that should be a lesson to us. Democrats right now are caught up in the idiocy that only negative attack spots are worthwhile or effective. That is rank ignorance. People want to vote for someone, not against, and a unique approach like Steele's is a great way to get the non-political types interested. See Wellstone '90 and Ventura '98.

We lost in 2002 and 2004 due to 9/11. White women shifted in small but critical percentage to the GOP. It was the only voting block that moved in noticeable percentage and it was fatal to our hopes. Those women detoured not due to negativity but because they believed Republicans were stronger on national security. It was hardly an anti-Democratic shift but one in favor of the other side, a false belief Republicans were superior on foreign affairs and therefore security/terrorism/Iraq, you name it. Somehow we concluded the GOP won because of attack ads and now that's all we want to feature. It's another example of the lousy handicapping I'm always talking about. If our candidates in the tight races included offbeat and memorable positive spots along with the accountability ads regarding their opponent, I guarantee we would win more of the tossups.

[nickshepDEM]

18. Your analysis of MD is dead on.

The race is almost a tossup.

It goes much further than Steele's ads, too. The African American community is very upset w/ the way Mfume was treated early on in the primary. Currently Steele is pulling 33% of the AA vote. If he holds this lead or expands on it, he may very well win on November 7th.

[wiley]

24. Your post is being seriously attacked

Jersey Dems know exactly what gutter Republicans are going to crawl out from. Curently, they are campaigning in mainly Democratic areas, often handing out Menendez fliers in Spanish. Sleazy, yes, but they are well known for appealing to frustrated property owners and moms worried that their kids won't get the best education they can - because of all those Mexicans that are taking over the state, you know?

Once again, Jersey has a very active Klan and white supremacist movement that is feeding off suburban sprawl and property tax issues and making "Mexicans" the root cause. As if a puppy named Kean could resolve any issue.

Wake up Dems. That Kean senior thing with Disney/ABC was no mistake. You're waiting for them to develop ethics or play nice?

[Clark2008]

25. Overheard at the coffee shop:

"That Harold Ford Jr. is holding is own..."

"Yeah, he might win..."

"I dunno, what do the polls say?"

Here's what they say, dang it:

Tennessee: Harold Ford Jr. (D), Bob Corker (R)

Latest Polls:

* SurveyUSA September 11, 2006: Ford 48% Corker 45%

* Zogby/WSJ September 11, 2006 : Ford 42.6% Corker 45.3%

* Rasmussen September 5, 2006 : Ford 44% Corker 45%

Pollster.com average of last five polls: Ford 45% Corker 45%

Comments: With the closeness of some of the other races and with Menendez struggling in New Jersey, this has become a critical race for Democrats as they attempt to take the seat being vacated by the retiring Bill Frist. While Ford's television ads are way too conservative for my tastes, they are very well done and Ford is an undeniably engaging presence on TV and in person. It's also important for we Northeast liberals to remember that it's not us Ford is appealing to, but people in a deep-red state and he is clearly doing the right thing, based on how, according to Pollster.com's five-poll average, this race is now deadlocked at 45% to 45%.

On edit: Tennessee is not a "deep red" state. It's purple at best: we have a Dem state house and a Dem governor and we voted for Clinton/Gore in both races.'

Just a clarification.

[McCamy Taylor]

28. Suggestion: attack Tom Kean Sr.: Path to 9/11, United Health Link

If Tom Kean Sr is a big asset to Jr, then make him a liability. Tom Kean Sr. trashed Clinton by putting the seal of approval on a pack of lies. Few people know that Sr. gets a cool half a million dollars a year from a big health insurance company that would rather die than see Democrats control Congress and Hillary in the White House because that would mean

SINGLE PAYER HEALTH CARE IN THE US


or bankruptcy for UNITED HEALTH, Tom Kean Sr's boss. When he ok'd the miniseries, he was almost certainly motivated by financial gain. His bosses needed the Dems and the Clintons slimed.

Amyway, attack Sr. like a pack of pit bulls. United Health is up to its neck in corporate scandal right now.