Thursday Poll Dancing: Senate Updates

[Bob Geiger]

Let's take a brief look at where we stand with some of the most hotly-contested U.S. Senate races this year:

Michigan: Debbie Stabenow (D), Michael Bouchard (R)

Latest Polls:

• Strategic Vision Sept 20, 2006: Stabenow 51% Bouchard 44%
• Survey USA Sept 18, 2006: Stabenow 54% Bouchard 41%
• EPIC-MRA Sept 14, 2006: Stabenow 54% Bouchard 34%

Pollster.com average of last five polls: Stabenow 52% Bouchard 41%

Comments: With less than seven weeks to go before the November 7 election, these are too much like every poll has looked in the last six months for Bouchard to make up enough ground to win.

* * * * *
Washington: Maria Cantwell (D), Mike McGavick (R)

Latest Polls:

• Rasmussen September 12, 2006: Cantwell 52% McGavick 35%
• Zogby/WSJ September 11, 2006: Cantwell 50.2% McGavick 42%
• Strategic Vision August 29, 2006: Cantwell 48% McGavick 43%

Pollster.com average of last five polls: Cantwell 52% McGavick 39%

Comments: This race is not as close as the occasional poll, like the Strategic Vision results of August 29, might suggest. Cantwell may not excite Washington Progressives, but she hasn't had the outright blunder -- think Joe Lieberman -- to lose to McGavick.

* * * * *
Connecticut: Ned Lamont (D), Joe Lieberman (I), Alan Schlesinger (R)

Latest Polls:

• ARG September 19, 2006: Lamont 45% Lieberman 47% Schlesinger 3%
• Rasmussen September 19, 2006: Lamont 43% Lieberman 45% Schlesinger 5%
• SurveyUSA September 12, 2006: Lamont 38% Lieberman 51% Schlesinger 7%

Pollster.com average of last five polls: Lamont (D) 41%, Lieberman (I) 48%, Schlesinger (R) 4%

Comments: Of course, this is the race everyone is watching and one that sets a dangerous precedent in a guy like Lieberman thinking he can simply turn the primary election, and his party's rightful choice, into a complete mockery. Lamont is closing the gap every day and, with the timely revelations that Lieberman's support for the Iraq war now includes tacitly endorsing war profiteers who are cheating both the troops and American taxpayers, Lamont will win -- and that's even if my prediction of Lieberman dropping out by November 7 doesn’t come true.

* * * * *
Arizona: Jim Pederson (D), Jon Kyl (R)

Latest Polls:

• Rasmussen September 20, 2006: Pederson 39% Kyl 50%
• SurveyUSA September 19, 2006: Pederson 43% Kyl 48%
• Zogby/WSJ September 11, 2006: Pederson 43.5% Kyl 50.2%

Pollster.com average of last five polls: Pederson 41% Kyl 48%

Comments: Pederson took good advice from somebody and, in the last month, has been hammering on Kyl about his opposition to a minimum wage increase and his close ties to the big-money pharmaceutical industry. And recent polls show Pederson drawing closer to it being a statistical dead heat. If the image of the national Republican party continues to be tarnished even more -- is that possible at this point? -- Pederson may be able to pull off a major surprise.

* * * * *
Virginia: Jim Webb (D), George Felix Allen (R)

Latest Polls:

• Rasmussen September 15, 2006: Webb 43% Allen 50%
• SurveyUSA September 13, 2006: Webb 45% Allen 48%
• Mason-Dixon September 10, 2006: Webb 42% Allen 46%

Pollster.com average of last five polls: Webb 46% Allen 47%

Comments: One year ago, nobody in the GOP power elite would have guessed in their wildest nightmares that Allen would be fighting for his political life in this election. This one is a pure dead heat and, while Allen still has the edge, who knows what Macaca Man will say or do to hurt himself in the next seven weeks?

* * * * *
Pennsylvania: Bob Casey (D), Rick Santorum (R)

Latest Polls:

• Rasmussen September 21, 2006: Casey 49% Santorum 39%
• Franklin & Marshall College September 21, 2006: Casey 45% Santorum 38%
• Zogby September 11, 2006: Casey 47.0% Santorum 42.9%

Pollster.com average of last five polls: Casey 51% Santorum 40%

Comments: Santorum is toast. Even if the Santorum team Photoshops a picture of Casey marrying a gay couple, while performing an abortion, with a burning flag in the background -- and I think we know, with Republicans, that's not out of the question -- this seat goes to the Democrats on November 7.

We'll take a look at the other hot races tomorrow.

You can read more from Bob at BobGeiger.com.

[fooj]

1. BWAHAHAHA!

Thanks. I needed the comic relief. Great news!

Santorum is toast. Even if the Santorum team Photoshops a picture of Casey marrying a gay couple, while performing an abortion, with a burning flag in the background...

[AX10]

2. K & R!

I agree that Santorum is toast!

[ddeclue]

3. You mean like this?

[samsingh]

4. kick

[joefree1]

5. Really really enjoying watching Santorum go down in flames

He reminds me of the holyer then thou, rich daddy, couldn't make the football team, pompous, ra-ra, high school kid running for class President everyone secretly wanted to beat up. Call me low class but I'm going to enjoy his defeat.

[LynneSin]

6. That guy is the dirtiest fighter - it ain't over until (hopefully) all the

votes have been counted

:cry:

[hvn_nbr_2]

7. What's up in Michigan?

That looks like a sharp negative trend over the course of a week. Did something happen there or is it just the different pollsters or a statistical fluke?

[lonehalf]

8. I hope these polls are right. By the way...

...My poll last night shows Ford gaining dramatically over Corker in TN.

[Auntie Bush]

9. I hate to mention it but Stebanow is still in danger...Bouchard

went up 10 points in one week. That's a little disconcerting.

[wallwriter]

10. Two words: Voting machines.