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fooj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 02:12 PM
Original message
Time to call them on their bullshit.
GOP primary turnout was lowest in more than 30 years
By MARC HUMBERT
AP Political Writer

September 17, 2006

ALBANY, N.Y. -- Voter turnout for last week's Republican primary to choose a GOP challenger to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's re-election bid was just 5.6 percent, the lowest level in more than 30 years, according to state election officials.

The primary pitted little-known former Yonkers Mayor John Spencer against the even less well-known Kathleen Troia "KT" McFarland, a Reagan-era Pentagon official and political novice. Spencer won 61 percent of the GOP vote to 39 percent for McFarland.

Unofficial returns showed fewer than 180,000 of the state's more than 3.1 million Republicans bothered to vote.

Lee Daghlian, a spokesman for the state Board of Elections, said the GOP turnout was the lowest since 1975, when the state board began keeping primary turnout figures.
<snip>

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newyork/ny-bc-ny...


Rasmussen now has shrub disapproval back up to pre-9/11/06 levels.

It was a dead cat bounce, apparently.


"The latest Bush bounce is over. Today, 41% of American adults approve of the way that President Bush is performing his job and 57% disapprove. That’s exactly where the numbers were before the President’s 9/11 speech.
Overall, 21% of Americans Strongly Approve and 42% Strongly Disapprove."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Bush_Job_Approval.htm

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The latest bullshit poll...

Bush approval rating rebounds in new poll (44% approval - Gallup)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/20...

Bush approval rating rebounds in new poll

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President George W. Bush's approval rating has rebounded to 44 percent, the highest level in a year, in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, the newspaper reported on Tuesday.

Bush's approval rating jumped five points from 39 percent in the previous poll conducted earlier this month.

The bounce comes with seven weeks before elections to deicide control of Congress amid falling gas prices and a renewed campaign by Bush to boost support for the Iraq war and to portray Republicans as more competent than Democrats on security, the newspaper said.

Bush's approval rating edged up largely on the strength of Republicans coming back to the fold with 86 percent saying they support him now, compared to 70 percent in May, USA Today said.


Something about the Gallup poll...

apparent statistical anomaly:


"Bush's approval rating edged up largely on the strength of Republicans coming back to the fold with 86 percent saying they support him now, compared to 70 percent in May"

Alone among major polling methodologies, Gallup's allows party biases from screening for likely voters to infect key results. (See http://gking.harvard.edu/files/preelection.pdf for a somewhat dated but still likely accurate survey.)

The world is falling apart and this rat bastard soars up in the polls? His party is fractured, he goes apoplectic in the Rose Garden, he wants to screw with the Geneva Conventions to cover for his war crimes, retired and active military are revolting against him, Powell speaks out, Ney pleads guilty and accuses the WH of pressuring him into breaking the law, FCC report on media consolidation was hidden from public, he holds military lawyers for over 5 hours to "bully" them into submission, Taliban back in full force in Afghanistan, over 150 dead, tortured bodies recovered in Iraq over the weekend, Graham says there are 3 branches of govt./NOT ONE in NYT, Editorials coming out across the country against this admin. and its policies...the list goes on and on! Sure. Little Lord Pissypants has his highest rating in a year. ON WHAT PLANET?

One of the biggest Unions in CT has crossed over in favor of Lamont, Webb cleans Allen's clock on MTP...

Sure. It's a dead heat. Like I said previously...ON WHAT PLANET?

ASK THE MSM why they have decided to tote this BS poll out in front of the American people instead of the other polls that have come out in the past few days. Ask them about Gallup allowing party biases. Let them know that we are NOT SHEEP. We are watching them CLOSELY and we expect them to stop committing all of their journalistic crimes by propelling this newest piece of propaganda.


WE need to media blitz these treasonous, rat bastards and let them know we WILL HOLD THEM ACCOUNTABLE for their failure to uphold their direct responsibilities to the citizens of this country as per the US Constitution. Period. It is time to call them on their bullshit. NOW!
:patriot:
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flyarm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 02:13 PM
Response to Original message
1. thank you k&r..and i am onnit..writing MSNBC right now!! n/t
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flyarm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 02:14 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. here are some articles to include in letters to MSNBC!!
Congress Considering Strip Searching Students: Safety Act (HR 5295)

Mon Sep-18-06 04:11 PM

Congress Considering Strip Searching Students
September 18, 2006


Imagine an America in which school officials could strip search every student in their school based on the unsubstantiated tip that one of them might have a joint. Congress is voting on a bill Tuesday or Wednesday that could make these police state tactics more common.

We can stop Congress in its tracks, though. Call your representative RIGHT NOW and tell them to vote against this dangerous bill.

If you don't know who your House representative is, simply call the Capitol Switchboard at (202) 224-3121 and give them your address. They'll connect you directly with your representative's office. When you get a staffer on the phone, politely say something like:
"My name is and I live in . I'm calling to urge to vote against the Student and Teacher Safety Act (HR 5295) when it comes to the floor this week. This bill would allow schools and police to invasively search large groups of innocent students based on the mere suspicion that just one of them has drugs. It strips Americans of their 4th Amendment rights. Please let me know how votes."

MORE INFORMATION

The Student Teacher Safety Act of 2006 (HR 5295) is a sloppily written bill that would require any school receiving federal funding (essentially every public school) to adopt policies allowing teachers and school officials to conduct random, warrantless searches of every student, at any time, for essentially any reason they want. All they would have to do is say they suspect one of their students might be carrying drugs, and then they could conduct a wide scale search of every student in the building. These searches could be pat-downs, bag searches, or strip searches depending on how far school administrators wanted to go. Although courts would have the power to overturn policies that went "too far", it could take years - possibly decades - to safeguard the rights of students in every school.

http://www.drugpolicy.org/news/091806stripsearch.cfm


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flyarm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 02:15 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. WP editorial: Bush prison "program" signature of 3rd World dictatorships
WP editorial: Bush prison "program" signature of 3rd World dictatorships
A License to Abuse

Mr. Bush says he has "one question" for Congress. The right answer to it is "no."
Sunday, September 17, 2006; Page B06

PRESIDENT BUSH made crystal clear Friday that he has one overriding concern about the legislation on foreign detainees before Congress. His "one test," he said, was whether Congress would authorize what he repeatedly called "the program" -- that is, the CIA's network of secret prisons and its brutal treatment of the people in them. "Congress has got a decision to make," Mr. Bush declared during a news conference. "Do you want the program to go forward or not?"

That is indeed the most important question before Congress and the nation. So allow us to elaborate, again, exactly what Mr. Bush means by "the program." He's talking about the practice of sequestering terrorist suspects indefinitely and without charge in secret foreign locations and holding them incommunicado even from the International Red Cross. Until recently, such "disappearances" were the signature of Third World dictatorships. U.S. adoption of them has roiled relations with our closest European allies and impeded collaboration with foreign police and intelligence services.

Mr. Bush also wants the CIA to be able to treat its detainees to such practices as "cold cell," or induced hypothermia, in which detainees are held naked in near-freezing temperatures and repeatedly doused with water; "long standing," in which prisoners are handcuffed in an uncomfortable standing position and forced to remain there for up to 40 hours; and prolonged sleep deprivation.

Throughout the world and for decades, such practices have been called torture. That's what the United States called them when they were used by the Soviet KGB. As the president himself tacitly acknowledges, they violate Geneva and other international conventions as well as current U.S. law. News that the United States has used these techniques -- as well as waterboarding, an ancient torture technique that simulates drowning -- has gravely damaged U.S. standing in the world and the fight against terrorism. It increases the danger that captured U.S. servicemen will be exposed to similar treatment by nations that might otherwise feel obliged to respect the Geneva standards....Rather than admit that he wants to legalize disappearances and torture, Mr. Bush ominously warns that "the program" won't continue unless Congress passes his bill. He says "time's running out," even though it's not. There are no detainees in the CIA prisons at the moment, according to the president, and the only clock running out is that measuring the midterm election campaign....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/20...
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flyarm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 02:16 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. NY GOP primary turnout was lowest in more than 30 years
GOP primary turnout was lowest in more than 30 years

GOP primary turnout was lowest in more than 30 years
By MARC HUMBERT
AP Political Writer

September 17, 2006

ALBANY, N.Y. -- Voter turnout for last week's Republican primary to choose a GOP challenger to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's re-election bid was just 5.6 percent, the lowest level in more than 30 years, according to state election officials.

The primary pitted little-known former Yonkers Mayor John Spencer against the even less well-known Kathleen Troia "KT" McFarland, a Reagan-era Pentagon official and political novice. Spencer won 61 percent of the GOP vote to 39 percent for McFarland.

Unofficial returns showed fewer than 180,000 of the state's more than 3.1 million Republicans bothered to vote.

Lee Daghlian, a spokesman for the state Board of Elections, said the GOP turnout was the lowest since 1975, when the state board began keeping primary turnout figures.
(snip/...)

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newyork/ny-bc-ny...


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flyarm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 02:17 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. 9 Former Judges Plead With Congress-DON'T Indiscriminately Imprison People
9 Former Judges Plead With Congress-DON'T Indiscriminately Imprison People

Last Thursday nine former federal judges sent a letter to Congress http://jurist.law.pitt.edu/pdf/retiredjudgesletter.pdf detailing their opposition to the proposed McCain, Graham, Warner Military Commissions Act of 2006 which would strip US prisoners held outside the United States from their right to habeas corpus.


We applaud Congress for taking action establishing procedures to try individuals for war crimes and, in particular, Senator Warner, Senator Graham, and others for ensuring that those procedures prohibit the use of secret evidence and evidence gained by coercion. Revoking habeas corpus, however, creates the perverse incentive of allowing individuals to be detained indefinitely on that very basis by stripping the federal courts of their historic inquiry into the lawfulness of a prisoner's confinement.


Why is this important? What is habeas corpus? And, why should we care?

Simply, habeas corpus, known as the Great Writ, is vital to a free society because it is the principle means by which government is restrained from indiscriminately and indefinitely imprisoning people. Habeas corpus "is a legal proceeding in which an individual held in custody can challenge the propriety of that custody under the law."

As the nine Judges conclude:


For two hundred years, the federal judiciary has maintained Chief Justice Marshall's solemn admonition that ours is a government of laws, and not men. The proposed legislation imperils this proud history by abandoning the Great Writ to the siren call of military necessity. We urge you to remove the provision stripping habeas jurisdiction from the proposed Military Commissions Act of 2006 and to reject any legislation that deprives the federal courts of habeas jurisdiction over pending Guantanamo detainee cases.


http://jurist.law.pitt.edu/pdf/retiredjudgesletter.pdf
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/9/18/154635/318
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flyarm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 02:17 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. Ford's layoffs of 90,000 mean entire auto sector could pass last year's in
http://news.monstersandcritics.com/business/article_1201888.php/Ford_layoffs_push_U.S._total_to_record

Ford's layoffs of 90,000 mean entire auto sector could pass last year's in job loss 9/18

CHICAGO, IL, United States (UPI) -- The U.S. car business has announced nearly 90,000 job cuts this year, an industry group said Friday.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement consulting firm, said Ford Motor Co.`s announcement that it was laying off 10,000 salaried workers raises the possibility that the sector as a whole will surpass last year`s

'Suppliers may be the next source for major workforce reductions as they adjust to the new reality of smaller American automakers,' CGC said in a statement. 'Plant closings by Ford and General Motors will also ripple through the economy, possibly resulting in job cuts throughout a variety of industries, as communities struggle with higher unemployment.'

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calimary Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 02:19 PM
Response to Reply #3
8. Well, the way he got into power was pure banana republic.
Why not be consistent?

Yes, we've lost the moral high ground. What the fuck is it that we're fighting for, again?
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flyarm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 02:19 PM
Response to Reply #2
9. so someone at MSNBC and Gallup tell me what gave * a bounce??
its all bullshit!!

total bullshit for the GOp to steal another election folks..and we ned to hold the fucking MSM accountable!
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John Gauger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 02:17 PM
Response to Original message
6. BULLSHIT!!!
Am I doing it right?
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flyarm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 02:20 PM
Response to Reply #6
10. yep..now write an email to MSNBC!!..thanks!! n/t
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babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 02:21 PM
Response to Original message
11. Good post, fooj! And you're right, we can dispute poll numbers
until kingdom come, but the majority of the media are whores doing the bidding of the wh, so we won't get the straight skinny.

I fear we won't get the truth no matter what we do; witness that b.s. movie ABC just aired despite the uproar.
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fooj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 02:23 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. I guess what I'm asking is does this "new poll" cancel out all the others
that have come out in the past few days? How can one poll DEVIATE so far from the others? It's ridiculous.
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flyarm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 02:27 PM
Response to Reply #11
14. J. KERRY WAS ON WITH NORA WHORA A BIT AGO AND HE CALLED HER ON IT
he said pissy pants can come on and do 5-6 speeches and gets all kinds of coverage..and yet a rebuttal is never heard..

we need to let them hear from us and enmass!!

fly
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flyarm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 02:25 PM
Response to Original message
13. Ties to GOP trumped skill on Iraq team-- Washinton Post
ahhhhemmmm ..O'Beirne is husband of gop /rnc talking media head Kate O'Beirne!!

Ties to GOP trumped skill on Iraq team-- Washinton Post

sounds familiar?? you're doing a great job Brownie..can you still hear it?? while people drowned....

Sun Sep-17-06 01:53 AM
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14868608 /

Long article

(Snip)

After the fall of Saddam Hussein's government in April 2003, the opportunity to participate in the U.S.-led effort to reconstruct Iraq attracted all manner of Americans -- restless professionals, Arabic-speaking academics, development specialists and war-zone adventurers. But before they could go to Baghdad, they had to get past Jim O'Beirne's office in the Pentagon.

To pass muster with O'Beirne, a political appointee who screens prospective political appointees for Defense Department posts, applicants didn't need to be experts in the Middle East or in post-conflict reconstruction. What seemed most important was loyalty to the Bush administration.

O'Beirne's staff posed blunt questions to some candidates about domestic politics: Did you vote for George W. Bush in 2000? Do you support the way the president is fighting the war on terror? Two people who sought jobs with the U.S. occupation authority said they were even asked their views on Roe v. Wade.

Many of those chosen by O'Beirne's office to work for the Coalition Provisional Authority, which ran Iraq's government from April 2003 to June 2004, lacked vital skills and experience. A 24-year-old who had never worked in finance -- but had applied for a White House job -- was sent to reopen Baghdad's stock exchange. The daughter of a prominent neoconservative commentator and a recent graduate from an evangelical university for home-schooled children were tapped to manage Iraq's $13 billion budget, even though they didn't have a background in accounting.

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electropop Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 02:44 PM
Response to Reply #13
20. Had they at least stayed at a Holiday Inn Express?
Perhaps they teach Creative Accounting at evangelical universities. That seems to have been the way it was executed.
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Leopolds Ghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-20-06 04:21 AM
Response to Reply #20
34. Give our gov't more credit. They stayed at a Courtyard by Mariott.
Edited on Wed Sep-20-06 04:25 AM by Leopolds Ghost
It features Internet and fax lobby, 24-hour groceries, all the tools needed for the modern executive to do well in the business world. What more do you need? ;-)

ON EDIT: A relative of mine used to work for civil service. You don't want to know the percentage quota of presidential appointees that have been set aside for graduates of evangelical law colleges, specifically Regent University, Pat Robertson's college. It is high, very high. Pat Robertson's stated purpose? To train gov't officials to prepare for the "regency of our Lord"
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electropop Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-20-06 10:01 AM
Response to Reply #34
35. Yikes. Evangelical law = Sharia?
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fooj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 02:33 PM
Response to Original message
15. Citing EXTREMISM, more GOPers are joining Dems.
Really sounds like they are "returning to the fold", eh?

http://www.inthesetimes.com/site/main/article/2823/

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flyarm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 02:38 PM
Response to Original message
16. Generals' revolt, part 2

Generals' revolt, part 2
CNN's Barbara Starr looks at rising numbers of ex-generals criticizing the Bush administration. (September 18)

http://www.cnn.com/video/player/player.html?url=/video/us/2006/09/18/starr.generals.divide.cnn
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flyarm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 02:39 PM
Response to Original message
17. Housing Slump in U.S. May Lead to First Drop Since Depression
Housing Slump in U.S. May Lead to First Drop Since Depression


Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Nancy and Brian Christopherson are asking $389,900 for their eight-room Colonial Revival home in Westford, Massachusetts, featuring a new kitchen with maple cabinets. Even at that price, they'll lose $14,100.

Monthly price reductions since they listed it in May for $429,900 have lured no offers for the house, bought for $369,000 in 2004. ``It's getting scary,'' says Nancy Christopherson.

The sharpest slowdown in U.S. home-price growth in three decades is trapping owners with mortgages they can't afford, pushing unsold homes to a record 4.42 million and gutting profits for builders such as Lennar Corp. and Toll Brothers Inc. The U.S. median home price next year may fall for the first time since the Great Depression, says Gabriel Stein, chief international economist with Lombard Street Research in London.

Economists such as Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz warn that the reduced sales may push the world's largest economy into recession, and concern is mounting over economic growth in Europe and Canada. The Federal Reserve will reduce its U.S. benchmark lending rate, says Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Last month, the central bank ended a two-year streak of 17 increases that pushed the rate to 5.25 percent, citing cooling home sales.

``The housing slowdown will be a large drag on economic activity,'' Hatzius says. ``The Fed will cut rates to 4 percent next year as the housing downturn starts to push up the unemployment rate.''

more...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a4N...
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flyarm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 02:40 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. ok so i join you Fooj in screaming ..bullshit Gallup and MSNBC!! n/t
Edited on Tue Sep-19-06 02:41 PM by flyarm
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fooj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 02:42 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. We can't let this stand. It's complete and utter bullshit.
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fooj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 02:45 PM
Response to Original message
21. Apparently, Rasmussen didn't get the memo.
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fooj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 02:50 PM
Response to Original message
22. US has held over 14,000 detainees in secret prisons.
NOT ONE HAS BEEN CHARGED!!!!!!

Sure. Watch those poll numbers rise.:grr:
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flyarm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 02:58 PM
Response to Original message
23. New rule on spying goes to Congress
so i guess people in Gallups polls are thrilled with this right????????

New rule on spying goes to Congress
Compromise measure would give government more leeway to listen in


http://fairuse.100webcustomers.com/fuj/baltsun8.htm
Click here to find out more!


By Siobhan Gorman
sun reporter

September 18, 2006

WASHINGTON -- Under the pressure of a hotly contested national election, Congress is on the verge of approving the most sweeping changes to government spying powers in a generation.

Five years after President Bush launched the National Security Agency's warrantless surveillance program, Congress is expected to take up a measure this week that would strengthen the president's authority to conduct domestic espionage. Bush increased the pressure on lawmakers Friday, saying that the measure, designed to remove a legal cloud over the NSA program, is "essential to winning the war on terror."

Like two other major post-Sept. 11 changes -- the creation of a huge Department of Homeland Security and a new national spymaster's office -- the administration initially fought the legislation involving the NSA program.

Critics in both parties say the earlier reforms have not lived up to their promise and, in some cases, created as many problems as they solved. They warn that the NSA legislation might also fail to resolve questions surrounding that program and could have the effect of expanding the president's spying powers beyond what the bill's sponsors have acknowledged.

It could also leave intelligence officers in the dark about when they can and can't spy inside the country because it eliminates the old rules without creating new ones, critics say.

More...
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flyarm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 03:05 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. yeah sure Gallup...D.C. corruption eruption
Edited on Tue Sep-19-06 03:05 PM by flyarm
http://www.nydailynews.com/front/story/453860p-381809c.html

D.C. corruption eruption

FBI forced to triple fraud probe squads to keep up


BY JAMES GORDON MEEK
DAILY NEWS WASHINGTON BUREAU

WASHINGTON - There is so much political corruption on Capitol Hill that the FBI has had to triple the number of squads investigating lobbyists, lawmakers and influence peddlers, the Daily News has learned.

snip:

But in recent years, the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal and other abuses of power and privilege have prompted the FBI to assign 37 agents full-time to three new squads in an office near Capitol Hill.

FBI Assistant Director Chip Burrus told The News yesterday that he wants to detail even more agents to the Washington field office for a fourth corruption squad because so much wrongdoing is being uncovered.



snip:

Plus, the electronic and legislative paper trail that winds up as evidence is in Washington, as Rep. Bob Ney (R-Ohio) and ex-Rep. Randy (Duke) Cunningham (R-Calif.) can attest.

Ney has agreed to plead guilty to corruption charges. Cunningham was sentenced to eight years in the slammer for taking bribes.

snip:

A recent FBI search of the Alaska Statehouse was a first of its kind.

snip:

Burrus wouldn't speculate about why there is so much graft, but said, "We have to pull the whole weed up or it's just going to grow back again."

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fooj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 03:53 PM
Response to Original message
25. Bush WH LIES to 9-11 responders regarding air quality.
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fooj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 03:56 PM
Response to Original message
26. As of TODAY 9-19-06 Rasmussen shows Bush #'s STILL dropping!
http://americablog.blogspot.com/

Someone has some 'splaining to do.
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rainy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 04:43 PM
Response to Original message
27. It's all about the Republicans giving the owners of media more
power to consolidate. They have to know what they are doing.
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fooj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 05:30 PM
Response to Original message
28. From the AZ Republic...
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Contrary1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 06:03 PM
Response to Original message
29. Here's how Newsmax puts it:
Bush Approval Rating Up Sharply

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
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fooj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 07:41 PM
Response to Reply #29
32. Up whose ass?
:toast:
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ProgressiveEconomist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 07:26 PM
Response to Original message
30. Hey, those words sound familiar: "apparent statistical anomaly ....
... somewhat dated but still accurate survey" (from http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2518318&mesg_id=2519284 ).

When I posted those same exact words an hour and a half before you just did, I made a slight mistake, which you apparently copied word for word.

Here's what I should have said:

A sentence from the Washington Post article (at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/19/AR2006091900067.html ) may be the key to understanding these apparent statistical anomalies:

"Bush's approval rating edged up largely on the strength of Republicans coming back to the fold with 86 percent saying they support him now, compared to 70 percent in May".

Alone among major polling methodologies, Gallup's allows party biases from screening for the voting age civilian noninstitutional population and for likely voters to infect key results. (See http://gking.harvard.edu/files/preelection.pdf for a somewhat dated but still likely accurate survey. ).

Remember, there are skip patterns in Gallup surveys. In the polling process, random landline phone numbers (excluding cell-phone numbers) are called until target numbers of interviews in target populations have been recorded. Before getting to key questions about whether they approve or disapprove of or intend to vote for X, respondents are asked series of questions to determine their demographics and (if applicable) whether or not they are likely to vote. Some organizations ask whether respondents are REGISTERED Republicans, while other organizations ask respondents whether they IDENTIFY THEMSELVES as Republicans.

One plausible explanation for the anomalous results may be that, since May, people have become a bit less likely to self-identify as Republicans, and those who have been enthusiastic Republican voters in the past now are a bit less likely to tell pollsters they definitely plan to vote in November.

If that hypothesis were true, then self-identified Republicans interviewed yesterday would tend to be more hard-core in their suppport for Bush than self-identified Rs interviewed in May. Hence the jump in measured support for Dubya among "Republicans" from 70 percent to 86 percent. That is HUGE and IMO unlikely to be accurate.

Another key question is, who's more likely to use a cell phone as a primary phone, rather than a land line? If calling land lines is more likely to get Republicans to answer than Democrats, then Republicans may be more likely to get into telephone samples than Democrats. All other major polling firms correct for that potential bias; Gallup alone does not.
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fooj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 07:40 PM
Response to Reply #30
31. Thanks for adding this info to the thread...
Edited on Tue Sep-19-06 07:40 PM by fooj
Many apologies for using your exact words. It was an honest error. A friend e-mailed it to me.

Again...sorry about that.:blush:
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ProgressiveEconomist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-19-06 07:46 PM
Response to Reply #31
33. No problem. "Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery", anyway!
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