Republican Candidates Trail Democrats by Just 3%; Bush Job Approval Climbs

[gully]

to 39%

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1172

Following an aggressive media blitz, the latest Zogby America poll finds the standing of President Bush and congressional Republicans climbing as the November elections rapidly approach.

The telephone survey was conducted Sept. 12-14, 2006, included 1,034 respondents, and carries a margin of error of +/– 3.1 percentage points.

The poll contains good news for congressional Republicans battling a strong Democratic push to retake the House and Senate. While Republican congressional candidates trailed their Democratic counterparts in the “generic ballot” question by a 39% to 31% margin a month ago, today they have whittled the Democrats’ lead to just three points, 37% to 34%.

Coming on the heels of a series of policy speeches culminating in a Sept. 11 address to the nation outlining the President’s vision for domestic anti-terror programs and the War in Iraq, the Zogby survey shows President Bush’s standing has increased five points since mid-August, when just 34% of voters rated him positively. Bush had previously risen to 37% in a Sept. 5 Zogby America poll.

Time for Dems to get aggressive on "terror?"

[Deja Q]

1. So why were the people angry again?

Never mind. They must miss being angry.

[Parisle]

2. It's Past Time

---- And "terror" isn't the only issue on which the democrats may want to get aggressive. Social Security would be a fantastic issue on which the democrats could pick up yardage,... but they have to be prepared to do something besides talk about it.

[villager]

3. Note Zogby is the only poll to have Repubbies this close...

Still, they need at least one as cover for election theft...

[skipos]

4. Zogby is a self-proclaimed Democrat

if you want to criticize his methods, that is fine. He is not part of some conspiracy though.

[rodeodance]

5. yes, Zogby, as a person is ok.

[zeemike]

7. So is Zell Miller

But I have no doubt that the polls will close the gap, and it will be a close election and the democrats will fail, by just a little, to claim the house and senate.

[gully]

11. NO comparison. However, national polls are not as important as

local polling.

[FrenchieCat]

13. Bingo!

Cause that's what counts in these district and state races!

For the senate a poll of the state would suffice....but in reference to districts, one cannot judge from general polls like these.

I, for one, I'm not getting comfortable.......cause the GOP knows how to set up for the win....they do have a track record on this. Shit!

[gully]

14. They lay on the ropes until the end and blitz us with propaganda.

Unfortunately the media dutifully regurgitates it.

[FrenchieCat]

15. That's the only reason it works....cause of the media's assistance....

It becomes pretty obvious to those paying attention.....

and it is amazing how some folks forget as soon as possible!

[jen4clark]

16. You got it, villager.

Read Mark Crispin Miller's prediction for the '06 election:

~ snip ~

ms in la: So what do you see happening with the polls—I know he had a little bit of a spike recently—but in general he’s running in the 30’s and so is the Republican Party and that’s an obvious... I mean, mandate schmandate, there’s really not people behind this group or their decisions—

Mark Crispin Miller: Right.

MS: Now as we lead up to November.... How on earth... we don’t have this rattling gay marriage issue or flag burning... how would they justify a win this time? What could they say?

MM: Well, OK. That’s a very good question. This is what I think the following is appropriate. First of all, the race will tighten up, because races always do. Let’s bear in mind, parenthetically; polling outfits routinely over sample Republicans, in the first place. This is one of the dirty little secrets of polling. The Republican Party is not quite as numerous as we think it is from reading polls. But it is always the case that races tighten up as Election Day approaches. ]b]And as we’ve seen, the press will often concoct a kind of tightening, even when there isn’t one. I mean, you may remember the 13 point bounce that Bush allegedly got from his Convention in 2004.
This was fantasy. I think he maybe jumped a point or two. But the press simply bought and broadcast Karl Rove’s spin on this.

And so we are sort of primed to expect races to tighten up. The Republicans will go all out to depict the Democrats as traitors, as terrorists and so on. It will be extremely ugly. That will unfortunately help make the race get tighter, or at least—will help make the seeming tightening of the race seem understandable. OK? Now, if it doesn’t tighten up enough... if it’s simply asking too much of people to believe they could win yet again...this is what I’m not just guessing will happen, this is what I know will happen—from conversations with people who’ve talked to Republican strategists.. If the Republicans should lose the Senate, or the House, they will seize on the closest races—as many of them as they need to make up the difference—and they will go HOG WILD on the issue of election fraud.

Cont.

Read the entire transcript of the interview at CCN (Clark Community Network). This part is near the end and he gets even more specific of how Repubs will work the "election fraud" angle to their advantage.

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/7997

[Tiggeroshii]

17. Last month Rasmussen had them this close.

This is essentially the second poll. OF course Rasmussen's latest and most other polls still show Democrats ahead by about 10 points. I won't be comfortable until we are ahead 20 points.

[Frosty1]

6. They didn't poll me!

I've been signed up with them for a couple of years. I haven't heard from them in months. How about the rest of you? When is the last time you heard from them?:shrug:

[calimary]

9. Nor have I. And the last one was a really stupid consumer-oriented

poll. Almost nothing about politics.

[rzemanfl]

8. 34 minus 3 is 31 where I went to school and 34 plus 3 is 37. This

means exactly fucking nothing.

[gully]

10. It's 37 - 3 which equals 34.

eom

[rzemanfl]

18. Huh? On edit, 34 now 31 a month ago (3). Missed the

"previously" on the other figure-so they're saying that since August * is up more than the margin of error and is now at 39?

[zbdent]

12. This is why, on the Ed Schultz show, Kerry was saying that

we cannot be confident of "victory" in November ... Rove isn't on the leash in the back yard of the White House ...

[Ignacio Upton]

19. Zogby is crap

While Zogby himself may be a Democrat, I trust Rasmussen's polling before I trust Zogby's, even if Scott Rasmussen himself is a Republican. Also, Bush's job approval is usually higher in his polls because the poll choices are "somewhat disapprove," "strongly disapprove," "somewhat approve," and "strongly approve." This allows for a chunk of voters who are dissatistified with Bush, and who would otherwise say they disapprove in a binary two-way poll, to say that they like him somewhat. Other pollster break it down into "approve or disapprove" while Rasmussen has some nuance.