WTF!!!! Bush goes from 40% to 47% in a month??

[SPCAworks]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Bush_Job_Approval.htm

huh??

WTF?

from RR:
"The spike is fueled largely by a resurgence of support among the President’s base. Eighty-five percent (85%) of Republicans now offer their approval. At its low point earlier in the year, just 66% of the GOP faithful approved of his job performance."

Disasterous Iraq war, embroiled in controversy...

His disapproval is down to a mere 50%... just 2% more than the votes garnered by Kerry.

Shit, it's begun. Prepare for the worst, 50 something days til election 06.

Don't relax, don't take ANYTHING for granted. FIGHT for every seat in every race.

[MADem]

1. They've "fixed" about seven percent of the Diebold machines NT

[grytpype]

2. Gas prices.

Gas prices down, approval goes up.

[Cosmocat]

20. Yep ... AND ...

The boarder security thing has died down AND he gets a 9-11 bump ...

We have at least one more "big" issue that is going to light up the country that might break things one way or another ...

[fuzzyball]

34. Gas will soon be at $1.99/gal

You can't tell me the SAudi's are not trying to help shrub...

[funflower]

3. The republicans hate him, but they hate us more.

Basic partisanship becomes stronger during election season.

[ChipsAhoy]

19. funflower - Bingo!

I think you are exactly correct. I'd like to find out why they have such hatred for us. After all, they believe they won the last two elections, so why the hatred? Makes no sense.

[Catchawave]

25. Yes, the same hate that drives

their "moral majority".

[movonne]

4. By election time it will be up to 65%, thinks he is God's right hand..

[Pharaoh]

5. It's all manipulated!

Nothing is true or what it seems anymore............

[snowbear]

6. WHO READS RASSMUSSEN ?????

Stop it!

[kstewart33]

7. Pew Poll released today - he's at 37 (no change). eom

[Clarkie1]

24. Took place September 6-10. There is some good news in that one. nt

[Up2Late]

8. Totally Bogus poll results, they add "somewhat or strongly approve"...

...together to get the 47%, here's the real results "...Overall, 24% of Americans Strongly Approve and 38% Strongly Disapprove...." (same link as in OP)

[tech3149]

9. "His disapproval is down to a mere 50%... "

If half the people who met me didn't like me, I'd consider myself a complete loser!

[eppur_se_muova]

14. Oh, half the people in the country. Big deal.

What shameless spin.

[Lexingtonian]

10. Don't get carried away, will ya?

Out of six fundamental polling categories, Bush and his Party don't rate any better than 35% support nationally in five of them. That's the basis of the certainty that they have nothing left.

The sixth is 'fighting terrorism', in which they have 48-49% approval/ 51-52% disapproval. But it's a wierd category that has is all about magical thinking and unresolved xenophobias and bigotries.

And, guess what? During the past few days the Bush crew have managed to get people to tune out the other 5 categories and focus on that one.

No, gasoline prices have nothing much to do with absolute levels. That's magical thinking that polling doesn't actually bear out. No one's actually changing their minds because of them, they just intensify the existing levels of content or discontent.

The Republican problem is that they can spike up things this way, but it doesn't really help them. 'Fighting terrorism' works politically only for the executive branch. It has no direct relationship to the legislative branch (i.e. Congress) or local political/managerial stuff (state offices). For authoritarian follower Republicans there is transference of intensified allegiance from Bush to his Congress, but not for the other sorts of Republicans. There's not enough effect so they can win the elections; they're simply hoping to sustain a "firewall" that keeps them just enough Senate seats.

The trouble is also that this selfpity and paranoia based spike-up is insustainable. And an actual effective attack by Al Qaeda on the U.S. or a close ally creates a very short hard spikeup, then a nearly immediate collapse of the 'fighting terrorism' rating to ~15% lower.

[elperromagico]

11. Wait for more polls.

If other polls match this one, Bush is having a bounce. If they don't, this poll is an anomaly.

I would also point out that this is pretty traditional for Bush. He sinks low in the polls, has a bounce, and then sinks even further. It's been happening ever since 9-11, but now that his numbers are so low, the bounces don't mean much at all.

If this is a bounce, he'll start sinking again very soon.

[SPCAworks]

15. I'm not

looking at this poll alone. I'm looking at the trend extending over a 10 or 15 month period. And Bush has climbed "consistently".

The truth will be in the next 10-15 days... I think he'll be back down to 40-41% by the end of the month. If not... it may extend to high RW turnout in Nov.

[elperromagico]

17. I've seen him polling in the high 30s/low 40s for several months.

http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm

[SPCAworks]

18. but look

at the "trends"

even Gallup has him up 6% in the last 4 or 5 months...

I THINK I know why.

As opponents of the president become more VOCAL and angry...

The RW'ers become more protective and agressive in their own right. The more talk of "impeachment" and "war crimes" the more stirred up the RW'ers become. So it's gonna' come down to a contest of the deep and committed left vs. the fundies basically.

Bottom line... anyone who thought that a 31% Bush approval rating meant that 69% of people were ready to go blue is a fool. This is STILL a divided nation, nearly straight down the middle. Everything will come down to:


MESSAGE (repugs keep beatin' terra' drum daily and they never waiver as irritating as that is.)

(Dems need a message with real solutions and plans)

TURNOUT (an unpopular repug party won't make people (Rep's) bolt out the door on Election morning.)

(Dems need to put their emotions into turning out every possible soul)

This is important in 2006, but will be even more important in 2008. By 2008 I bet you will see massive withdrawal from Iraq and more "mission accomplished" flag waving. Expect the PM of Iraq to dedicate the US monument in Baghdad (will be blown up a week later lol) and possibly a US interview, maybe 60 minutes. And maybe $1M payments to gold star families...

The BS will be THICK in 2008.

[CarlVK]

12. If it's even accurate, its the Sept 11th bounce

Which is some sick ass shit in itself - as if the commemoration of Sept 11th is only to show pity and support for reichwing rethugs.

[Hippo_Tron]

13. Rasmussen always gives ridiculous figures for Shrub approval

Look at any of the other polls and I doubt that he will be over 40%.

I read Rasmussen because he is good about keeping up with Senate races, but take everything I read there with a grain of salt. He was on Sean Hannity's show a few days ago, I believe.

[MattP]

16. Just a little off

That pew poll is from a month ago, he is at 40% to 42% in all the polls but that one poll so I see it as a little off.

[leesa]

21. Well, San Diego area...Bush stickers are all over the place again.

Really stupid people around here. I suspect early next year is when many of them will lose their homes to foreclosure, so until then they are GOP all the way.

[tinfoilinfor2005]

22. Not in the Florida Keys. But I keep seeing the "don't reelect anyone"

stickers.

[ChipsAhoy]

28. Yes, the Bush and W'04 stickers are STILL around here.

They never left. I rarely see any Kerry stickers. Depressing!

[MattP]

23. Tweety

You got Tweety gushing about how at this rate Shrub will be gaining 2% every 2 weeks and be at 50% by the elections and the cons will take the house and senate because of it, what a load of crap.

[jenmito]

26. Don't worry....

He's back down to 41% and yesterday Rassmussen proclaimed "The Bush bounce is over."

[truebrit71]

27. Rasmussen is full of shit. Don' worry.

.

[maseman]

29. Look

You have to look at averages. Think about it. The five last national polls were conducted over Sept. 11th weekend.

Fox/Opinion 40 approve 49 disapprove
AP/Ipsos 39 approve 60 disapprove
NBC/WSJ 42 approve 53 disapprove
Gallup 39 approve 56 disapprove
Pew 37 approve 53 disapprove

Average 39.4 approve and 54.2 disapprove

Last 20 polls condcuted before that takes us back to the beginning of August. The approval rating for those 20 are 38.5 and disapprove is 56.7.

Not too much has changed overall. I think Sept. 11th stuff helps Bush because many people are not as into politics as we are. Many people simply would like a president whom they can trust and like (like they did the morning of Sept. 11) and that translates into a higher approval rating.

I see it going back down. Gasoline? Not a factor unless they get it into the $1 range. You start seeing $1.89 then we might be fucked.

[Tiggeroshii]

30. um dude. Rasmussen's giving him a 41% approval right now. 58% disapprove.

Do you mean that it was probably not possible for them to be able to measure 47% approval when they did(last week)?

[Imagevision]

31. Bush 47%? - nah I read he's at 57%... hahahahahahaha......!

[leesa]

32. They will make the polls as close to 50% as possible or else they cannot

make Republican election thefts plausible. The pollsters are corporate enterprises too.

[Imagevision]

33. In order to control Iraq & flow of oil, repugs need November win as badly

as Bush 04 election fraud had to be used. I believe Diebold will prevail.

[formernaderite]

35. I hate these sort of posts...call me cynical

but why is it always people with less than 300 posts who enjoy posting Bush's rising numbers? You know I've been here for a little over two years, and am still not sure if i've earned the right to post a thread...yet newbies with no ulterior motive continue to post these threads....call me cynical as to their real motive and identity.

[NotGivingUp]

36. Lies, lies and more lies.

[Contrary1]

37. He's at 40% today.

Looks like he dropping a percentage point per day. Let the free fall begin.