NYT: For Democrats' Hopes, Less Promise in New York

[DeepModem Mom]

NYT: For Democrats’ Hopes, Less Promise in New York
By RAYMOND HERNANDEZ
Published: September 11, 2006

In a year when Democrats hope to take control of the House of Representatives, New York would appear to be fertile ground for toppling Republican incumbents....In fact, just a few months ago, Democrats envisioned significant gains in New York, perhaps picking up as many as four seats, possibly even five. But that goal now seems increasingly remote, and there is an emerging consensus among political analysts that the party’s best chance for capturing a Republican seat is the battle to succeed Representative Sherwood L. Boehlert, one of the most liberal Republicans in Congress, who is retiring.

At the same time, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee plans to spend roughly $50 million on advertisements for races around the country, according to Republican estimates. But none of that money has been set aside for New York races, except for Mr. Boehlert’s seat in the 24th District in the Utica area, according to Democrats involved in the races.

The shifting local fortunes for Democrats could have serious political implications beyond New York. The party needs 15 seats to take control of the House. Even one victory in New York would be an important step toward that goal, giving the Democrats a cushion if they lose elsewhere in the nation.

The situation in New York is particularly surprising given the state’s reputation as a Democratic bastion. National and state party officials have spent months trying to create buzz around those races. But Republican incumbents, in New York and elsewhere, have been trying to shift the focus of the races away from hostility toward the Bush administration to more local concerns, like the potential loss of federal aid to their districts if they lose veteran congressmen....

***

In addition — and perhaps most important — the incumbents in New York are benefiting from being in legislative districts drawn to keep the Republican incumbents in place....

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/11/nyregion/11house.html?ei=5094&en=47f0a9d78a31d3a5&hp=&ex=1158033600&partner=homepage&pagewanted=all

[Nite Owl]

1. I hope there will be a pleasant surpirse

come election day. Kirsten Gillibrand is only 8 pts behind now and Sweeney's favorables are under 50%. The poll that they quoted that had him so far ahead also had at least one third undecided. After 4 terms why would so many be undecided about someone that they know if they liked him?
We've been canvassing nearly every day for Kirsten and people are not happy with Sweeney, some see our buttons and say I'm voting for her without us saying anything.

http://www.gillibrand2006.com/
Take a look at her new ad, it's great.

[DeepModem Mom]

2. Thanks for an on-the-scene report, Nite Owl -- and good luck! nt

[snowbear]

3. Where is the "dimished hope around the country" in that article?

I didn't see them say that -- it's focused mainly on NY races and is the opinion of the author only.

So.. :shrug:

[DeepModem Mom]

6. I edited the subject line --

I was referencing this line: "The shifting local fortunes for Democrats could have serious political implications beyond New York."

But you're right, the implications don't imply diminished hopes in individual races outside of New York -- just implications that might affect the total of Congressional seats won by Democrats.

[gumby]

4. Oh, Look... the NYT is laying the groundwork.

The Democratic takeover is nonsense. Nothing to look at...the polls mean nothing.... move along.

[snowbear]

5. Thank you Deep Modem!

I edited my post too ;)

[DeepModem Mom]

7. See post #6. nt

[Moochy]

8. NYT 2006 Election Guide

http://www.nytimes.com/ref/washington/2006ELECTIONGUIDE.html?currentDataSet=senANALYSIS