Top 15 governorships likely to change parties

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," Chris Cillizza
The Line: Nev., Minn. Crack the Governors' Rankings

....Remember, the number one race on the list is the most likely to switch parties this fall....

***

4. Colorado: This race is slipping further and further away from Republicans. Former Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter (D) continues to collect massive amounts of cash (over $600,000 in August alone) and is successfully labeling Rep. Bob Beauprez (R) as just another Washington insider. Beauprez is a solid candidate, but he is struggling mightily against the pro-Democratic mood of the Colorado electorate. This state is a very difficult hold for Republicans. (Previous ranking: 6)

3. Massachusetts: We'll know a lot more about this race after Tuesday's Democratic primary between state Attorney General Tom Reilly, 2002 lieutenant governor candidate Chris Gabrieli, and former U.S. Deputy Attorney General Deval Patrick. Republicans acknowledge that if Gabrieli wins, the race is probably over. If Patrick or Reilly prevail, then Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey has a chance. But, with the erosion of Republican support in the Northeast generally, it's hard to believe that voters in the most Democratic state in the country would elect another GOPer as their chief executive. (Previous ranking: 4)

2. Ohio: Despite promises from Republican operatives that Secretary of State Ken Blackwell (R) would give Rep. Ted Strickland (D) a run for his money this fall, we still see no evidence that GOPers have any reason for optimism. A USA Today/Gallup survey showed Strickland with a 52 percent to 36 percent lead among those most likely to vote. The state is ready for a change after eight years of Gov. Bob Taft (R). This race represents a terrific pickup chance for Democrats. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. New York: Sigh. As a lover of competitive races, we have to admit some disappointment about just how easily state Attorney General Eliot Spitzer (D) is going to be elected governor. The only fun left in the race is to try and pinpoint Spitzer's percentages in his Sept. 12 primary against Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi and in the general election against the Republicans' sacrificial lamb, John Faso. We'll go with 68 percent in the primary, 63 percent in the general. (Previous ranking: 1)

(NOTE: The remainder of the races are Arkansas, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Rhode Island, Maine, Wisconsin, Alaska, Nevada, Illinois and Minnesota.)

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2006/09/the_line_nev_minn_crack_the_go.html#more

[JDPriestly]

1. What about California?

Don't tell me we are going to be stuck with Schwarzenegger and his Republican cronies for four years.

[napi21]

3. I'm not in Ca. but all I keep hearing is that Ahnauld's opponent is

apparently hiding somewhere! I had Ray Taleferro on early this AM and he wastalking about that too! If the Demdoesn't doing some loud, Hard campaigning, I'm afraid you WIll be stuck for4 more with Ahnauld!

[Le Taz Hot]

7. Phil Angelides

isn't hiding anywhere, it's just that there are too many bozos in this state willing to vote for the "Terminator." They don't give a damn about politics, nor about this state, but voting for the "Terminator" is cool. Y'know?:puke:

[terrya]

2. Illinois isn't going to change parties

Short of something really devastating, Blagojevich will be re-elected.

[Oceansaway]

4. i agree..........

as much as i cant stand Blago....i'd rather vote for him again than see
that God awful JBT get elected.....jmo

[skipos]

5. Granholm (D) has been going up in the MI polls, but it will still be close

nt

[mainegreen]

6. I cant imagine Woodcock(R) will win Maine.

He's a pyscho and everyone knows it.

[Lindacooks]

8. Oh please, oh PLEASE let that little weasel Pawlenty lose.

I'm a Minnesota native and I'm thoroughly sick and tired of repukes ruining my state.

[rodeodance]

9. Doyle is still ahead of Mark Green (R) in WI

[Awsi Dooger]

10. Hey, Nevada finally snuck onto that list

And legitimately so. That Titus/Gibbons race is much closer than many on that list. In fact, at least according to the polls it's considerably closer than Alaska, which is ranked one spot above it. Sarah Palin is leading Knowles by 14 and 17 points in two polls released this week. I'm not sure I trust that margin and I bet larissa and others will agree with me, but those are the current poll numbers, including 52-38 from Rasmussen today. Titus is probably 4-6 points behind right now, although there hasn't been a poll since the primary on August 15.