Top 20 US House seats most likely to change parties: if holds, we have HR

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
9/1/2006
The Friday Line: U.S. House Races

....Remember the #1 ranked race is the most likely to switch parties....

***

4. Arizona's 8th District: The math in this southern Arizona district is simple. If conservative ex-state Rep. Randy Graf wins the Republican primary on Sept. 12, Democrats will almost certainly win this seat. If moderate state Rep. Steve Huffman is the GOP nominee, the road to victory for Democrats is much bumpier. Graf has to be considered the favorite in the primary (he remains the best known candidate due to his primary challenge to Rep. Jim Kolbe (R) in 2004), so this seat keeps its high ranking on the Line. Former state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords is the likely Democratic nominee. (Previous ranking: 3)

3. Texas' 22nd District: Former Rep. Tom DeLay (R) isn't as smart as we thought he was. Although DeLay resigned from office and moved his official residence to Virginia, the courts refused to allow him to be replaced on the November ballot -- meaning that Republicans must run a write-in campaign. Their chosen nominee? Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs. Not exactly the easiest name for a voter to remember and write-in. Former Rep. Nick Lampson (D) is sitting on $2.2 million and, despite the strong Republican lean of the district, he should be considered a favorite this fall. (Previous ranking: N/A)

2. Iowa's 1st District: Neither attorney Bruce Braley (D) nor businessman Mike Whalen (R) will bowl voters over with their candidate skills, but both national parties are already engaged in this race and their spending is sure to overwhelm that of the candidates. This eastern Iowa district clearly favors Democrats (Kerry carried it by seven points in 2004) and may be ready to return to type after supporting Rep. Jim Nussle (R) for the past 16 years. Whalen has a chance, but it is a slim one. (Previous ranking: 1)

1. Colorado's 7th District: Former state Sen. Ed Perlmutter's victory in the Democratic primary earlier this month makes Republican nominee Rick O'Donnell's strategy even more complicated. Republicans were privately hoping former state Rep. Peggy Lamm would be the Democratic nominee because she was to Perlmutter's ideological left and would have given O'Donnell a chance to co-opt moderate voters. Perlmutter is not easily stereotyped as a liberal, and this suburban Denver district grows more Democratic by the day. (Previous ranking: 1)...

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/

[SteppingRazor]

1. Out of these 20, 19 are switches from GOP to Dem...

If everything else stays the same, we rule the House in November.

[durrrty libby]

2. Yesss Finally a step forward out of the dank. moldy air! n/t

[Raster]

3. Bring on the subpoenas!!!

Shine the light of day on this illegal, immoral mis-administration!

[DeepModem Mom]

5. Thanks, SR -- I edited subject line to reflect this. nt

[shrub chipper]

4. Best news for me is #5

5. Indiana's 8th District: We've been hesitant to write off Rep. John Hostettler (R) because he has shown a past ability to run and win without raising much money or hiring professional political consultants. However, not many Republican insiders hold out hope for Hostettler this time around. Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth is a good ideological fit for this conservative district and polling shows him with a comfortable lead. Is that the fat lady we hear singing? (Previous ranking: 10)



I hope my Neanderthal Congressman actually bites the dust this time.

He is a disgrace even by Hoosier standards.

[Supersedeas]

6. Make sure everyone that you know in those Districts knows how important

the election cycle really is.

[WA98296]

7. Wishful. But "polls" will suddendly "change" then Diebold will put in fix.

And everyone will accept it, because we were all told it was so "close".
Same bullshit, different election cycle.