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http://www.humanevents.com/evansnovak.php?id=16792#2If The Election Were Held Today: To date, we have discussed this election in terms of what the final outcome will look like in November. We have also mentioned Republican fears that, as one House committee chairman has said privately, Republicans will lose 25 seats -- or as we were told that national internal polls suggested, they could lose as many as 26 seats.
From here in, now that primary season has approached its end, we will resist such broad prognostication, particularly since we have not yet seen evidence that such huge losses are imminent when looking at the races as we always have in past cycles -- on a district-by-district basis. As we noted last week, "it is still at least challenging to construct a scenario of a 15-seat Democratic gain without positing some improbable upsets."
Today we begin a new, seat-by-seat look at this year's competitive House races, based solely on how each would turn out if the election were held today. As promised, we take a look this week at Democrat-held seats in the U.S. House and Democrats' chances of a takeover, and compare them to the Republican-held seats they will be targeting.
The first word that comes to mind with this chart is "pitiful." Most striking is the small space it takes up on the page and the emptiness of the category to the right -- "Likely Republican Takeover" -- and the near emptiness of "Leans GOP." There is not one easy takeover target for the Republicans this year. Republicans have failed to expand the playing field on the Democrats' side.
There are several reasons for this, including failure to recruit good candidates.