Kos predicts Republicans will keep House and Senate.

[Eric J in MN]

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/8/28/184621/559

"I still don't think we'll win back either chamber. I've seen the GOP close the deal too many times before for me to get complacent and cocky. Nah. I think we'll win 7-14 seats in the House, 3-5 in the Senate.

Yeah, I know such pessimism is tough when the numbers, data, and current events give so much cause for optimism, but I was burned two cycles in a row. I'm not getting my hopes up.

And in any case, I'm fully prepared (and eager, this time) to be completely wrong a third election cycle in a row."

[Der Blaue Engel]

1. Who needs enemas? n/t

[HereSince1628]

19. I can't tell my friends from my anemones.

Ok, so let's not get complacent.

We need to make sure we've got valid registered voters backing up all the popular sentiment, and we need to help them have a chance to make their marks. Denying people the franchise is just as big a deal as black box voting.

[Der Blaue Engel]

45. Oh, I know

I just can't stand to hear the pessimism, and Kos has never impressed me. I think it's better to speak of hope. I don't have much left of my own, and I don't trust the voting process as far as I can throw Dick Cheney, but I'm not ready to throw in the towell yet.

[librechik]

61. * * * fronds * * *

[NewJeffCT]

2. I agree with him

The Republic media machine is just too good & too focused for our side to make significant changes in an election cycle.

[MissWaverly]

8. Baloney

I heard that one of the Republican heavy hitters working out in the field was actually
being chased down the street by disgruntled voters. No, people vote on what they see, Iraq
is a mess, the country is a mess, FACT. People are willing to believe ownership and the Dems
are worms mantra in good times, when the country is on an even keel. We have had a total 360
degree turnaround since Clinton left. Only a numbskull could have turned it around like this
and the people know it. No amount of spin is going to erase Katrina and Iraq.

[krkaufman]

56. Ummm.... 360 degree turn ....

... means we're right where Clinton left us. (Though I'd argue the exact degree, you're looking for "180 degree turnaround")

Yours pedantically...
:)

[MissWaverly]

80. No, I think we should go back to the Clinton policy &

style of governing as apposed to the Nuke em now, our own little White House of Cowboy Diplomacy, 360 degrees would be back where we started and it seems like the only way out
of this maze.

[alfredo]

90. I agree. We better get to work.

[Beelzebud]

3. We can not assume victory by default, we have to earn it.

It's smart for Kos to take that stance. If we get lazy and assume we've already won, then they WILL keep their majority.

[AX10]

5. I agree that we must work towards our victories.

They will not just come to us. I hope that all of us do NOT take this coming election for granted. I am working for a Democratic majority this fall!

[AX10]

4. If the Dems do not get win this fall, we will know that there

is a severe problem with this country. When 65% of the people believe the nation is on the wrong track, there must be a political upheaval.

[LittleClarkie]

6. Think about the little train that could, Kos

I think we can... I think we can... I think we can...

Say it with me boys and girls.

I do hope he's going to fight the good fight anyway, despite the futility of it all.

[Rose Siding]

7. Don't all campaigns opt to lower expectations?

It helps motivate, is the CW I believe.

[Name removed]

9. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Gato Moteado]

22. you're delusional

even the worst dem is better than the best repuke.

hmmm.....lemme go take a look at your other 4 posts.

on edit: my bad....i thought you said you were voting for hillary's challenger in the general election.

[GregNewYork]

27. it's cool, but it's a shame you didn't know who Tasini was to begin with.

Hey all I can say is I have been coming to Democratic Underground for a couple of years now, it is a great place to get the scoop on current events.

But I am a New Yorker, and I can't think of one thing Hillary has done for us here in New York.

My Medical Insurance doubled since her election.

My Taxes have gone up.

The cost of Beef has doubled.

The cost of Chicken has doubled.

The cost of vegatables has nearly doubled.

Gasoline, more than doubled.

And Hillary is going from 'One Wealthy White Community' to another Collecting enormous amounts of Cash, while the communities she passes on the way are filled with people who are getting more and more deeper in debt just trying to maintain a sub level middle class status.

Chuck Schumer is another phoney, a super phoney.

I am a new Democrat, I supported the Kerry / Dem Ticket in 04.

Prior to that I was a major supporter of Ross Perot in both 92 and 96.

Ralph Nader was my choice in 2000 because I thought both Gore and Bush made the perfect pair of testicles.

Now, I have joined the Democratic Party, along with thousands of others. Hopefully we will be able to improve the party so it can win and start taking care of everyday Americans.

First things first, get rid of obstacles = Hillary is an Obstacle in my opinion, if she wins the NY Senate race again, its only a spring board for the Presidential Election, which will be a distraction from the real issues and if she did win the Presidential Primary, she will LOOSE in my opinion on the national level.

And what will that equate to... 4 more years of what we have now.. and I can't accept that.

Sincerly,
GregNewYork

[fuzzyball]

40. Good Post and Welcome to DU....

:toast:

[Vidar]

48. Welcome to DU

[CrushTheDLC]

50. Is Tasini a lifelong New York resident?

Or did he at least live there BEFORE he decided to run for office?

If so, he's already more qualified to represent the State of New York than somebody's wife from Arkansas.

[rinsd]

66. Last poll has Tasini up 2 pts, now its 80-15 for Hillary. (nt)

[TayTay]

10. I neither agree nor disagree, it's too early

What you do is show up and try. Each race in question will have it's own peculiar dynamics as well as tinges of what is upper most in people's minds nationally.

We have a shot. I suggest we take it and build on it. That's all you can do. That's all you really need to do.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

11. I Hope He's Right.....

Seriously, I think it's going to take a real and Complete COLLAPSE before this country WAKES THE FUCK UP. Anything short of that is not good enough.

I don't believe people get it yet. They still see things as black and white. It's going to take Reality, and not Reality TV to get people to understand the repubs for what they are.

I don't think the repubs are going to let the Dems take control of things just yet.

[lisainmilo]

30. I agree, but I hope I am wrong!

I will not give up though!

[bdamomma]

59. I am not giving up either

if we do that we are just playing into their hands. They are just playing mind games with us, and I am tired of being pissed on by them.

[Gloria]

12. MyDD isn't really thrilled with Rahm Emanuel and the way many

of the Dem. Congressional candidates are running their campaigns. They're not really going after Bush and Iraq enough, apparently.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Dems come up short because of lackluster campaigns and the inevitable vote stealing.

[Robbien]

23. Yes. Voters still see Dems as the wimp party. Dems need to stand

up and declare their position on every issue, not just wait for the voters to get fed up with GOPers and vote Dem.

I agree with dKos. The Dem Leadership (except perhaps Dean) are all sitting on their hands hoping everyone with vote 'not GOP'.

[proud2BlibKansan]

13. Mickey Mouse could get elected this November

Kos is wrong, way wrong.

[Cha]

I don't want to jinx it and it sounds

like kos doesn't either. I'm willing to be estatically surprised like with Lamont!

[gasperc]

60. it sure would be dumb to predict we'll win

only to watch it slowly slip away in the coming weeks. It does us no good to relax or to feel certain of winning or bitter if we aren't doing better. We need to just keep doing what we are doing, do more if we can and celebrate our achievements after the polls close and not a second sooner.

[Cha]

63. Teach It, Brotha or

Sistha!

[gasperc]

72. If we each haven't worn out two pairs of shoes

we've haven't done enough, let's keep pushing the envelope!!!!!!!!!!!

[Cha]

76. Oh my Goodness!

[zulchzulu]

14. I'm all for making the Repugs feeling overconfident...but...

...if anyone is not partipating in some way toward a candidate this election cycle, the least they can do is get out the vote and bring a friend...

[Evergreen Emerald]

15. diebold

we have no free elections. They will keep power as long as we let them.

[stillcool]

26. just like Vegas......

where the house always wins. I have more faith in my ability to win the lottery than I do in our elections.

[bluestateguy]

16. His prediction is reasonable (but he could be wrong)

I too, remember how all of the fundamentals pointed to the Democrats winning the House in 1996, or both houses in 2000.

The problem for Democrats is that elections are held in November. If elections were held in August, they'd win a lot more often.

[Awsi Dooger]

41. It is reasonable but Kos gives it a pessimistic feel

I mean, come on, we need +15 House seats and his estimate is 7-14. What is that? I guarantee if we needed 16 he would cut it off at 15.

The senate at 3-5 is much more sensible since that is a commonly predicted range.

I'm hoping for +4 in the senate and to barely take control in the House. That's actually quite optimistic, but I know it won't seem that way around here.

Everyone seems to be falling into the mode of assuming the coin flips in our direction. Like Chris Bowers at MyDD. He's got 7 House races listed as Lean Democratic and gives us every one. Then he's got 16 House races as tossups and estimates we'll win 8-12. I've done enough Excel over the past decade to realize he's probably 2-4 seats high among those groups, if his classification is legit. But he did admit he was worried he was tilting toward overly optimistic.

[ChiciB1]

17. I Designated HOPE As A Four-Letter Word A Long time Ago!

I now truly think I understand what a cynic is! And I are one!

If I'm wrong then it will FINALLY be the day I get to break out the little bottle of liqueur I've been saving since 2000 to make my husband and I that "Golden Margarita!" I kid you not, I had this stuff you're supposed to mix with the Triple Sec & Tequila to make a "golden" margarita!

Until then, it sits and waits!

[AtomicKitten]

18. It ain't over til the fat lady sings.

Keeping in mind that redistricting and election fraud put a damper on elections as it is, it can't hurt to hope (as pointless as it seems sometimes to some). RFK, Jr assures us that once the gag order is lifted on his litigation regarding election fraud, we may see results in time for the upcoming election. That would give a much needed boost the funk Kos and others are in.

[ChiciB1]

28. We Just Got Knocked Down Here In Sarasota County... No Paper

ballots referendum on the upcoming election. Just the same old machines,. Seems there was something wrong with the "wording" of the petitions we had people sign.... sooooooooo now it's in litigation!

Went to a meeting of Democrats last Saturday and one of the County Commissioners was there, Jon Thaxton (R) we don't have any Dems, and he said even though he thought we SHOULD have paper ballots he couldn't vote to put it on the ballot because there was something illegal in the wording. He also went on to say that he had never seen so many signatures gathered in such a short time, still it a NO GO!!

WHY they didn't tell us in the FIRST place there was something wrong with the wording is beyond me! But I can use my imagination. Sarasota is one of only 12 counties in Fl with NO PAPER BALLOTS! But then voting in Florida is risky ANYWAY!

Half the time I wonder whether they're trying to spook us into NOT voting because of fraud, thus they win when we don't vote. But then when we do vote, we don't know if our vote got counted anyway!

IT SUCKS!!

[AtomicKitten]

29. I applaud your efforts.

As frustrating as it is and as disheartening, I admire your perseverance. My thanks to you from the rest of America.

[ChiciB1]

36. I'm Still At It... But This Is Repuke Country For The Most Part...

I stay frustrated most of the time. We have made some headway, more people at the meetings, but as long as I've lived in this county I don't think I've ever heard of a Democratic Commissioner!

The past several years have been especially bad because we actually "out-registered" the Repukes during 2004. And I don't actually think Cruella really won. She isn't very well liked and wasn't back the either. I vividly recall standing on corners with our signs and getting "honks" for our side, which was a BIG surprise to me. Plus someone tried to run the witch over too!

Most of us who keep sticking it out feel like we just like the "punishment" or something. I don't even want to vote for Bill Nelson, but Cruella is the only other choice and I can't go there! I've often said I've lived under the "Trifecta Rule" for 6 years. The Idiot in the WH, The Menace in The Governor's Mansions, and The Witch in her office in Sarasota!!

I don't even know who I'm going to vote for in the Democratic Governor's Primary on 9-5!! And I'm voting for Jan Schneider, who I really think won last time out, but it seems this time most Dems want Christine Jennings! What a loser I am!!

[Vinnie From Indy]

20. LOL! Of course they will!

Until Democrats and the American public really start to question the reliability and honesty of our elections and fight for fair, verifiable elections, things won't change. The second absolutely essential issue Democrats and all Americans must address if they truly want change is the gargantuan corporate media megaphone working 24/7 for the GOP. AM hate radio alone is pumping thousands of hours of propaganda each week in the service of the GOP while print, broadcast and cable media empires are all acting as cheerleaders and distractors for BushCo. Until these two things change, nothing will change.

[xultar]

21. I agree. I don't think we will either. It is the reailty...too many

murkins belive in that war on terror shit. too many pretty smart murkins.

[razors edge]

24. what if the dlc

decides it better in their interests (america's be damned) to avoid the problems that come with having the ability to oust bush and cheney, and decide they would rather concentrate on hillary in 08, without all that devise nastiness?

[AlinPA]

25. Judging by the PA senate race, it looks that way. Casey has just about

disappeared and Santorum is everywhere in the media and blasting away with ads. He has closed the gap from about 16 points to around 5.

[mitchtv]

31. Same in Calif

I think we have a candidate for Gov. He is non existent compared to Groper

[Ignacio Upton]

34. Isn't Casey starting to run ads?

I thought he got an ad buy recently? But you are right about Casey not being visible enough. I can understand the point in limiting his ad buys considering he has less cash than Santorum, but he should do public events and campaign more to keep himself visible. Good local publicity could offset some of the dip in his support due to the Santorum barrage.

[snowbear]

42. Pennsylvanians aren't idiots --- Screw the polls!

Do you seriously think your fello' Pennsylvanians want that ASSHAT for another 6 years????

I don't know one friend or family member, regardless of their political affiliation, that would vote for Rick the prick.




How do you know what Casey has up his sleeve? Have some FAITH !!!

[Clark2008]

32. We have to get out the vote to beat blackbox voting.

Period.

[Ignacio Upton]

33. Well, considering the Right-Wing Smear Machine

I wouldn't be surprised. If we are doing as well as we are now in...say...Mid-October, then I'll start being more optimistic. I think as of now we'll gain seats in the House but come short of a majority. As for the Senate, I wouldn't be surprised if we LOSE seats. NJ, MD, MN, and WA are all vulernable, and MI has the potential to be. I would also watch WV because of Byrd's age, and VT because of Tarrant's money. I also wouldn't be surprised if Bill and Ben Nelson are vulnerable (in the case of Bill, if the GOP can get rid of Katherine Harris and get a stronger candidate in after the primary, then we will have another tight race.) I'm also concerned about CT if you consider whether or not Lieberman will actually caucus with us. I do think the Senate could go close to our way, but I'm pessimistic after 2002 and 2004, when so many races looked to be trending towards the Democrats, but in the end we kept getting heart-broken. I'm willing to think the worst so I can be pleasantly surprised.

[Eric J in MN]

37. I think we're going to win the Senate races in MN, MD, and VT.

NT

[Ignacio Upton]

47. Out of those three, VT and MN look the best

But I'm concerned about MD, especially if Mfume is the nominee, as he will have an enormous deficit in cash, and will rely on the DSCC and other donors to help him. Money from these groups, especially from Beltway donors, that could otherwise be spent on Jim Webb.

[chat_noir]

78. NY Times maps - agree??

Senate: http://www.nytimes.com/ref/washington/2006ELECTIONGUIDE.html?currentDataSet=senANALYSIS

House: http://www.nytimes.com/ref/washington/2006ELECTIONGUIDE.html?currentDataSet=senANALYSIS


*************************





……….


www.awolbush.com




DESERTER: THE STORY OF GEORGE W. BUSH AFTER HE QUIT THE TEXAS AIR NATIONAL GUARD http://www.glcq.com/bush_at_arpc1.htm















$10,000 reward was never collected




Cheerleader action doll hahahaha

[lojasmo]

91. I think Walz is going to win in MN 1st CD

Call it a hunch. ;)

[MercutioATC]

35. The bunion on my right heel predicts an alien invasion.

Kos' opinion is just that...an opinion.

It's no more valid than any of our opinions.




(BTW, my bunion makes the following statement: "I think the aliens will win both chambers. I've seen the humans close the deal too many times before for me to get complacent and cocky. Nah. I think the humans will wind up eith 7-14 seats in the House, 3-5 in the Senate.")

[alcibiades_mystery]

38. I've been saying that for months...nobody dedicated a thread to me!

:shrug:

[fuzzyball]

39. It will depend on UNemployment % and Stock Market on November 7th

Because people vote their pocket books. If unemployment spikes
up from current low levels or if the stock market takes a dive,
then republicans are toast.

[Disturbed]

43. Micky Mouse is a Repug

Dems should not take anything for granted.

[The Wielding Truth]

44. FRIENDS DON"T LET FRIENDS VOTE REPUBLICAN

Stop these idiots!

[wiley]

46. Democrats will be too busy preening and swooning over 08

Presidential politics. That's what the media tells them to do, and they do it.

[SoCalDemGrrl]

49. It all comes down to WHO COUNTS THE VOTES and they do...case closed

The Dems (and I mean all of us) can't do a damn thing about ES&S and Diebold.

I turn on the television pundits and even the most liberal refuse to

talk about it.. but until we make it the primary issue... NOT

all the other bullshit I see thrown out here like are Dems too weak, or that the

DLC is not the way to go, etc etc.


Sorry but it's all PISSING IN THE WIND until we get a handle on HOW THE VOTES ARE COUNTED!!!!


We've been screwed TWICE now and Howard Dean, James Carville, et al better start screaming about

the VOTING MACHINES or it's lights out on Democracy as we know it.

[truedelphi]

75. I agree But

I tried a week ago to ask the folks here at DU to phone Pelosi's office
(House Minority Leader) and
demand that she start making a stink about the voting and election situation.

A total of EIGHT people responded... More important to discuss Jon Mark Karr
and JonBenet - over a hundred people interested in that

This needs to be in the mainstream media. But the mainstream media is already
falling under the spell of "American people not happy -but they sure hate gay
marriage" "American people nothappy but they sure don't want the cowardly
cut and run"

[SoCalDemGrrl]

81. You hit the nail on the head, distract America with fluff while you steal

elections.. and subvert democracy...

[orleans]

51. is kos going "conspiracy theory" on us?

maybe because he knows the elections were stolen the last three times around and he suspects they'll steal this one too?

(hey--i thought he didn't like :tinfoilhat: )

[City Lights]

54. (I thought so too.)

Didn't he do a mass :tinfoilhat: purge after the last election?

[Master of Disaster]

52. He's wrong about the House--right about the Senate.

Gridlock is your friend.

[Peace Patriot]

53. What we needed to do, right after Nov. 2, 2004, was to move fast and

get loud in exposing the Tom Delay/Bob Ney designed election system, that had been fast-tracked during the 2002-2004 period with a nearly $4 billion electronic voting boondoggle, resulting in Bushite corporations gaining control of vote tabulation, nationwide, using TRADE SECRET, PROPRIETARY programming code, with virtually no audit/recount controls.

Kos impeded that effort by placing an "Iron Curtain" over the subject of election fraud, as did the entire Democratic Party leadership. Why these people took the course of MIND-BOGGLING SILENCE in the face of EGREGIOUSLY NON-TRANSPARENT vote counting and the BLATANT AND ASTONISHING corruption of our election system, we may never know. But that's what they did. For Kos to come on now, all depressed about our prospects, is just a little hard to take. We have lost all sorts of elections, including the big one, to Diebold and ES&S, over the last four years. And we are going to lose again--or make only modest gains--in the face of the THE most criminal and THE most despised regime in our country's history. There are no parallels to this junta's criminality in our history. You have to reach across the waters and back in time to Hitler's Germany to find anything comparable. And there are no parallels to the American peoples' disapproval of this regime and its heinous war, and its lack of effect on the regime. When disapproval of LBJ and the Vietnam War reached these levels, he effectively resigned (didn't run for reelection). 56% of the American disapproved of this war way back in Feb. '03, before the invasion. 63% oppose torture "under any circumstances" (May '04), despite 24/7 fearmongering and propaganda. EIGHTY-FOUR PERCENT disapprove of any U.S. participation in a widened Mideast war (a recent poll posted here at DU). And when you look back over all approval and issue polls over the last several years, you find that Americans strongly disapprove of every Bush policy, foreign and domestic.*

If you want to conduct a horribly unjust and illegal war, in a democracy, and if you want, in addition, to loot the public treasury, lard the super-rich, and burn the Constitution, with impunity, you must rig the vote. That's what they did. THAT was the coup.

They did it deliberately and with malice aforethought. They went about deliberately creating a NON-TRANSPARENT, UNVERIFIABLE, UNRECOUNTABLE, UNAUDITABLE voting system, with extremely insecure and insider hackable voting machines, precisely TO rig the election results, so that they can conduct criminal activities that the great majority of Americans would never approve of.

The two main beneficiaries of this nearly $4 billion electronic voting boondoggle are as follows:

DIEBOLD: Until recently, headed by Wally O'Dell, a Bush-Cheney campaign chair and major fundraiser (a Bush "Pioneer," right up there with Ken Lay), who promised in writing to "deliver Ohio's electoral votes to Bush-Cheney in 2004"; and

ES&S: A spinoff of Diebold (similar computer architecture), initially funded by rightwing billionaire Howard Ahmanson, who also gave one million dollars to the extremist 'christian' Chalcedon Foundation (which touts the death penalty for homosexuals, among other things). Diebold and ES&S have an incestuous relationship; they are run by two brothers, Bob and Todd Urosevich.

These are the people who "counted" 80% of the nation's votes in 2004, under a veil of corporate secrecy.

This was not incompetence. This was not a mistake. This was not INADVERTENT. They did it on purpose.

And, so, yes, we are going to lose--or, if they're smart, they'll throw us a few sops this November, to preserve this fraudulent election SYSTEM for '08--but it won't be even close to reflecting the anti-war, anti-Bush MAJORITY of the American people, which has been apparent since early 2003 in all polls--approval polls, issue polls, exit polls, corporate or independent, and in all other indicators--EXCEPT FOR the non-transparent, unverifiable results of Diebold/ES&S's secret formulae!

But it doesn't help at all to get all gloomy and depressed, and start hedging your bets. ('Gee, maybe we'll lose.')

It's time to face this reality square in the face and do something about it--NOW.

We have to RESTORE transparent elections!

How to do that?

---------------------------

THE ABSENT BALLOT PROTEST

Election reform activists have many activities for people to join--vigilant monitoring of the election results this fall, documentation of voting and other election day events, statistical analysis, challenges of suspicious results, election lawsuits, public education, lobbying, challenges to election officials purchase of these election theft machines, etc. I will provide a list of resources below.

But the best idea that has come along for immediate and massive impact is the ABSENTEE BALLOT PROTEST. The idea is massive voter BOYCOTT of the electronic voting machines this fall. FLOOD election officials with MOUNTAINS of paper AB votes, and create sufficient panic and crisis in the election theft industry to FORCE reform NOW--and thus save the '08 primaries and general election from NON-TRANSPARENT, BUSHITE corporate vote counting.

AB votes are not particularly "safe"**--and will NOT insure accurate vote counts this fall (that is impossible)--but, if enough people vote AB (and many are--it's up to 50% in Los Angeles), we CAN generate a huge citizen "vote of no confidence" in secret, unverifiable voting counting. Reform is still feasible at the state/local level. This will jump-start reform.

AB voting is easy. Everybody can do it. (Most states have some form of AB voting.) It will also HELP turnout. To those who say "it's all rigged" and don't want to vote, we can say: But this is a PROTEST, aimed at UN-rigging the system. No excuse not to vote. Further, it turns voting into an active PROTEST, rather than a passive act of despair and hoping against hope for a good outcome. It is a a CITIZEN REBELLION!

The machines can be beaten by big turnout, in some cases. This is the key to turnout: Give people hope! Give them a way to express their discontent. Encourage this revolt--and if it's big enough, we can beat the machines right into "Boston Harbor" where they belong. No more secret vote counting!

Bust the Machines--Vote by Absentee Ballot this November!

----------------------------

*(About these two poll stats that people keep descrying--that about 50% of Americans believe that Saddam had WMDs and/or that Saddam had something to do with 9/11. Has it not occurred to these posters that the American people, while many may have these items of disinformation rattling around in their heads, STILL DESPISE BUSH AND HIS WAR? So what do these stats mean in combination with all other stats showing overwhelming and persistent disapproval of Bush and his war? They mean that these Americans don't approve of Bush's INTERPRETATION of these two items, and don't approve of his METHODS of dealing with them. Saddam may have had WMDs, but war was not the solution! Saddam may have had "something" to do with 9/11, but it was probably minor, and bombing innocent people and destroying their country isn't the solution to that either. Do you see the thinking and the discrimination that these Americans are showing? I think it's marvelous! We are the most heavily propagandized people on earth, outside of Uzbekistan and North Korea. And some Americans have succumbed to BITS AND PIECES of the propaganda, but have retained their common sense, and native distrust of Bush ANYWAY. 'Yeah, Saddam had some WMDs--so what?' --is the overall picture. If you take those two bits of disinformation in isolation, these Americans seem stupid. But if you look at the whole picture--huge disapproval of Bush's actions DESPITE many believing in the WMDs or the 9/11 connection--you realize that these Americans are not stupid; they are ETHICAL, they are maintaining a standard of ethical and lawful behavior in the face of fear and threat. Stats like the 63% opposed to torture ("under any circumstances"!) confirm this. So stop with the "sheeple" talk, and start showing some admiration for your fellow Americans, disinformed though they may be.)

**(Fill your Absentee Ballot out carefully so it can't be disqualified. Photocopy your Absentee Ballot after you fill it out, keep a copy, and hand-deliver the Ballot, or send it registered mail/return receipt requested, or Fed Ex. Additional measures: Send a separate letter to election officials demanding vote counting that all can SEE and understand. Tell them you want a paper ballot, hand-counted at the precinct level, with results posted before any electronics are involved. Also insist on publicly observable counting of AB votes, and counting those votes first not last. If possible, on election day, monitor AB voting counting at the registrar's office. AB votes are no more secure than optiscan votes if all they do is scan them into the electronic (secret vote counting) system. The difference is that, if you vote AB, YOU ARE REFUSING TO COOPERATE WITH THE RIGGED ELECTRONIC SYSTEM. You will not vote on the machines. You will not touch them. You want them to be sent to the landfill. And if enough people do this--refuse to touch these diabolical machines--we have American Revolution II.)

[LynneSin]

55. I've been down this path before and I have to agree with him

The republicans will dazzle us with lies and corruption in order to keep control.

But that doesn't mean I won't go battling til the end

[bdamomma]

57. WE ALL NEED TO GET OUT THERE AND VOTE

no matter what.

[gasperc]

58. wink and nod

managing expectations, let's keep going full speed ahead fighting like we are 10 points down and the expected "surprise" is just around the corner. I want us to win, I think we can win, I expect us to win but we won't win unless we work our asses off and tell our family and friends to help out. and just keep going, re-doubling our efforts and never believing the spin.

[lindisfarne]

62. Just what makes his opinion worth anything? n/t

[kentuck]

64. I think that is the sensible position to take...

Don't count your chickens before they hatch and all that crap...

[WA98296]

65. Kind of depends on WHO is COUNTING the votes, and how.

[SteppingRazor]

67. I think he could easily be right...

I'd narrow it down further to about 10-15 seats in the House. I don't think we'll get as little as 7. But 3-5 in the senate is certainly a good estimate. We'll probably get Montana and Pennsylvania. Rhode Island and Ohio are a little shakier. Tennessee and Virginia are shakier still -- I will say, though, that I didn't even consider VA a possibility until Allen opened his idiot mouth with the macaca statement, so that much is good.

Still, I don't think Kos is necessarily wrong here. It may be a conservative estimate, but it's still quite realistic

[rhett o rick]

68. If we learned anything from the 2000 and 2004 elections, it is the Repugs

will do literally anything to win. Lie, cheat, steal and probably kill. This 2006 HOR election is one of the most important elections ever for them. They desperately need to keep the HOR. They will almost assuredly keep the Senate, but if they loose the HOR, there will be investigations. They can not afford that at ANY cost. Standby for Karl Rove at his finest. Nothing would surprise me except if the Democrats win the HOR.

[grasswire]

69. STFU, Kos

Talk like this drives down turnout.

[JNelson6563]

70. He's hardly a positive thinker

I recently heard him on NPR. He spent a lot of time assuring the listeners of all the things the Dems just absolutely cannot do.

He can sit in his own poop and cry if he wants but I'm working it to win. I believe in that whole "whether you say you can or you can't you're probably right" thing.

Julie

[oc2002]

71. As long as Lamont beats LIEberman, and Webb beats Allen..all is well.

Because those two are thorns that need to be taken out of the Senate.

The rest is fine when it happens. The dems will win control sooner or later, it even may be beneficial to have the Republofacists in control for another two years to take the blame for the house of cards collapsing, economy, environment, terror,....

they will be blamed.

[sampsonblk]

73. Another '04 ? I sure hope not

After the 2004 cycle, I vowed to never get my hopes up again. Bush was toast. Iraq was screwed up. No WMDs. All kinds of other problems. And yet the GOP used national security, of all things, to pummel us at the polls. It could happen again. The same formula is in place.

But I sure hope our side wakes up and addresses the national security issues directly. That is the number one issue, whenever the president wills it. And you can best believe that in the last days of the election, that's ALL the GOP and Bush will talk about. Will our side be prepared this time? Or will we be talking about job growth, education and the environment again?

[Tiggeroshii]

74. I'm with him.

02 and 04 were pretty painful...

[Peace Patriot]

77. SOME RESOURCES FOR AMERICAN REVOLUTION II: Election Reform

Hopeful signs - latest news:

California voters sue the state over Diebold:
www.VoterAction.org is suing the state of California and 18 Calif county registrars on behalf of 25 California voter/plaintiffs, on the illegal Diebold "certification" by Schwarzenegger appointee Bruce McPherson.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2180496

San Diego voters sue the state over Diebold (CA-50, Bushby/Bilbray) :patriot: In court TODAY! :patriot:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=1995831&mesg_id=1995831

Maryland rejects Diebold:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x418263

Florida - anti-trust accusations against Diebold, ES&S and Sequoia, re: heroic Florida election official Ion Sancho:
(FLA AG subpoenas the companies)
http://www.computerworld.com/governmenttopics/government/legalissues/story/0,10801,110192,00.html
http://www.tbo.com/news/politics/MGBKSY8W8LE.html
(info & discussion)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2183630

Utah county clerk fights back!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x419226

-----

More resources for American Revolution II:

www.votersunite.org (MythBreakers - easy primer on electronic voting--one of the myths is that HAVA requires electronic voting; it does not.)
www.UScountvotes.org (statistical monitoring of '06 and '08 elections--they need donations)


(Activist sites with links to state activist groups or info)
www.votetrustusa.org (news of this great movement from around the country)
www.votersunited.org (good general info, and state links)
www.verifiedvoting.org (great activist site)
www.solarbus.org/election/index.shtml (fab compendium of all election info)

www.freepress.org (devoted to election reform)
www.bradblog.com (also great, and devoted to election reform)
www.TruthIsAll.net (analysis of the 2004 election) :patriot: :applause: :patriot:
www.votepa.us (well-organized local group of citizen activists in Pennsylvania, where important legal issues are at stake, including state's rights over election systems)
Provisions of the PA lawsuit:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x423739

The Voter Confidence Resolution
http://tinyurl.com/rlnr2 (“We Do Not Consent”)
http://guvwurld.blogspot.com (GuvWurld blog main page)
http://tinyurl.com/amryg (Voter Confidence Resolution

www.debrabowen.com (Calif Senator running for Sec of State to reform election system)
www.johnbonifaz.com (running for Massachusetts Sec of State on strong election reform and antiwar platform)

Congressional bills: (NOTE-don't count on the people who gave you the Iraq war to give you back your right to vote! Think nationally--act locally!)

Russ Holt's HR 550 requires a real paper ballot, bans secret software in "voting machines", and has more than 170 co-sponsors, but the audit required is too weak, it promotes electronic voting and centralized power, and the secret software might be permitted to continue in the central tabulators (the bill is not clear). To sign the HR 550 petition: http://www.rushholt.com/petition.html
At lot of discussion at DU of the loopholes/pitfalls in HR 550:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x422926
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x421136
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=422967&mesg_id=422967
(Note: Senate Bill-SB 330 and House-HR704 simply require a "voter verified paper audit trail" (VVPAT), which may be best for the moment.)


Also of interest:

Michael Collins (Autorank)'s searing election reform article for New Zealand's Scoop.com
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x971363

Bob Koehler (-- four recent election reform initiatives in Ohio, predicted to win by 60/40 votes, flipped over, on election day, into 60/40 LOSSES!--the biggest flipover we've seen yet; the election theft machines and their masters are now dictating election policy!)
http://commonwonders.com/archives/col321.htm

Bob Koehler's latest: "Take this box and stuff it" (3/16/06)
http://commonwonders.com/archives/col337.htm

Amaryllis (Diebold, ES&S, Sequoia lavish lobbying of election officials - Beverly Hilton, Aug. '05)
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x380340

------------------------------------------------

Throw Diebold, ES&S and ALL election theft machines into 'Boston Harbor' NOW!

:think: :patriot: :woohoo: :patriot: :think:

-----------

"That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it." --Thomas Jefferson, The Declaration of Independence

[ClassWarrior]

79. That's entirely plausible - ESPECIALLY...

...if we sit on our fat duffs and don't VOLUNTEER!! Find someone, some thing, to support... a candidate, a referendum, a party organization. Find SOMETHING to support this election season, and support it like your life depends on it!!!

Because it probably does.

Never Give Up.

[fujiyama]

82. I don't see this year being as bad as the last two cycles

but people are putting themselves up for some disappointment again.

The repukes still have the basic edge with the media in their pocket and fear as a winning tactic with millions of people scared shitless that brown people will come and kill them...or steal their jobs, or whatever else. Regardless, it's about evil and scary brown people.

The repukes will win using the race and fear card. And they still have more money because corporations know that they've never had better friends in power than they do now.

Considering that and the pretty poor campaign strategy of various candidates not learning from '04 (especially with Casey blowing the lead he had by letting Santorum define him through ads while he sits back), we can't expect to win either house. If we're lucky, there will be gains though.

It's not a lost cause though, but I've seen too many damn polls showing a Dem candidate in the lead or very close, only to lose it by a significant margin on election day. In a few cases, there was probable fraud, but in many, dems simply didn't show up to vote...

[Phoonzang]

83. He's right, and its not completely because of election fraud.

The Republican spin machine and the sheep-like nature of the American public should never be underestimated. Whenever there's a terror alert they go running back into the arms of Daddy Bush, not realizing that he's the one who put them in this situation in the first place. And of course "dem Democrats won't git rid of teh Mexicans!!"

As much progress as we have made, I still think it's all very fragile.

[Ninja Jordan]

84. If Dems fail to take the House or Senate, is Dean out?

nm

[sampsonblk]

87. If we fail, we need more Deans-nt

nt

[Brian Stevens]

85. If the Repugs win,

we riot.

[mmonk]

86. We need the House if this country is to return

to the constitution and checks and balances. It's just that plain serious. The hour glass is close to running out.

[johnnyrocket]

88. There's a certain 'plus' to the GOP holding on to power...

And I agree with Kos' assessment, ALL voting predictions the last 6 years HAVE BEEN SORELY WRONG, with a 5-10 point built in advantage for the GOP, no matter what the polls say.

First of all, from mydd.com a while back, I found out to my astonishment that most people still don't know the Republicans control congress, is it going to take a few more years for the public to finally 'get it'?! Probably.

Also, there will be ABSOLUTELY NO scapegoats in '08, the debt, the war, the chaos, the corruption, the incompetence will be overwhelming in '08 and the Grand Old Party will be in the crosshairs...finally.

Just like the 'Security Moms' and the 'NASCAR Dads' switching over politically lately ( better to call them 'slow learners' ) the general public will be so fed up, it will be a political tidal wave in 08.

[mmonk]

92. Once you take down a political system like

what has been going on here, the more you set bad precedents that people will have to deal with for decades. An election WILL NOT BE AN OVERNIGHT FIX, especially if it is even further down the road. The problem is systemic and must be overturned with haste.

[Stardust]

89. That's not the tune he was singing on Real Time last Friday.//