Carter within 4 points of Ensign?

[Tiggeroshii]

According to the latest Zogby, Carter and Ford are within 4 percentage points of their Republican opponents, with Webb inching a lead on George Allen. I think if another poll can verify Carter's gains in the Nevada Senate race, it would be a very good sign -especially considering he has trailed for a while by double digits.

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash05a.html?project=elections06-ft&h=495&w=778&hasAd=1&mod=blogs

[longship]

1. I still think seven or eight new Dem Senators in November.

I think we are *beyond* 1994 territory this year. Things haven't been this screwed up for incumbents for a long, long time. Furthermore, the anger is aimed not just at incumbents, but at incumbent Repukes. They've messed things up far, far greater than the Dems in 1994. The electorate's mood is very foul right now.

The only two things we have to do is first, get the voters to the polls and second, beat the drum relentlessly for our agenda (which must include electoral integrity).

[Clark2008]

2. You sound a lot more hopeful than I do

I think the American electorate IS angry, but I'm still not sure they'll go out of their way to do anything about it.

[longship]

6. It's all about turn-out and electoral integrity.

But Dems *must* get the message out in a big way.

[saltpoint]

3. Agree. Voters are not happy, and they're blaming the Thugs in

increasing numbers.

Zogby can be breath-takingly accurate and my hunch is these polls in Nevada, Virginia, and Tennessee are pretty darn close.

We need more Dems to volunteer and make a strong push this fall, but I like our chances more and more.

[ComerPerro]

4. No, people are pissed at Incumbent Dems

I heard an ad for a Republican running against my Congressman, accusing him of "not getting anything done".

Well, duh. He is a member of the minority party, and is silenced by the Republicans whenever he or anyone on his side tries to do anything.

But, the Republicans, who have a clear majority, haven't done anything to help regular Americans.

So how on earth would electing another Republican't change things?


Problem is, we can't get that message out.

I fear much of the "throw them all out" mentality will only hurt Dems.

[longship]

5. You are correct. This all about message.

The Dems need to be relentless about getting their message out, just like the Repukes did in 1994.

Bear in mind, the "Contract on Murica" was announced to the world a mere six weeks prior to the 1994 election. Dems have the time to get this thing on the hump. I only hope that they have the inclination to do it.

[ComerPerro]

8. And, just like the GOP's contract, we shouldn't be afraid to lie

and lie big.

[longship]

10. We don't have to.

All we have to do is say, "Replace the rubberstamp Congressional Repukes."

[ComerPerro]

11. I'm starting to think that the American voting public

wants to be lied to, and lied big.

Almost to a point where the lies are so grand that they are insulting to the intelligence.

[yellowcanine]

13. "All politics is local" except when it isn't.

[Tiggeroshii]

7. 1994 included a total revamping of district maps in several southern state

s. This outsed several Democratic incumbents simply through gerrymandering in a process meant to elect more minority legislatures. This may or may not have been a noble cause, but I think it's mostly the reason behind a Republican takeover. One reason that doesn't seem to be brought up by anybody these days.

We don't have that kind of advantage, Democrats' fate depends solely on voter turnout in Republican held districts.

[longship]

9. I understand this.

But if you look at the poll numbers (trends, not specific, actual numbers) you can see how things are shaping up. E.G., In PA Senate race, the polls are narrowing, but Sanitorium's approval numbers haven't budged up. In other words, when one looks at the whole picture Sanitorium should not take comfort in a tightning race because that's not likely the way things are going to go for him.

Another very telling set of statistics is that there is not a single Democrat-held seat in serious jeopardy. There are some close ones, as their inevitably will be. But not one Dem seat is being projected as a take-over. The Repukes desparately wish that wasn't so.

This is a nationwide trend. I'm not sure, but this might be a situation that violates "O'Neill's Law" -- all politics is local. If I were running for Congress I would certainly basically running with a strong anti-rubberstamp Congress platform.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. My estimate is Carter trails by 12-15

While Dina Titus in the gov race is down 4-6.

Simply my instincts but I've lived here since the '80s and generally have a good feel for the political climate.