Weird to see my old slightly different user name before Skinner allowed us a brief window to change it, plus the posts from jiacinto.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/cgi-bin/duforum/duboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=5453&forum=DCForumID22And here's the updated version to include 2004:
'88: George Bush Sr. 53.37%, Michael Dukakis 45.65% = Republican by 7.72%
'92: Bill Clinton 43.01%, George Bush Sr. 37.45% = Democratic by 5.56%
'96: Bill Clinton 49.24%, Bob Dole 40.71% = Democratic by 8.53%
'00: Al Gore 48.38%, George W. Bush 47.87% = Democratic by 0.51%
'04: George Bush 50.73%, John Kerry 48.27% = Republican by 2.46%
Example: Clinton, with an 8.53 national margin in '96, wins Florida by 48.02 to 42.32, or 5.70%. The net margin, therefore, is actually + 2.83% Republican, since Clinton did not manage his 8.53 number.
Alabama:
'88: Bush (59.17 - 39.86) = + 11.59% Republican
'92: Bush (47.65 - 40.88) = + 12.33% Republican
'96: Dole (50.12 - 43.16) = + 15.49% Republican
'00: Bush (56.47 - 41.59) = + 15.39% Republican
'04: Bush (62.46 - 36.84) = + 23.16% Republican
Alaska:
'88: Bush (59.59 - 36.27) = + 15.60% Republican
'92: Bush (39.46 - 30.29) = + 14.73% Republican
'96: Dole (50.80 - 33.27) = + 26.06% Republican
'00: Bush (58.62 - 27.67) = + 31.46% Republican
'04: Bush (61.07 - 35.52) = + 23.09% Republican
Arizona:
'88: Bush (59.95 - 38.74) = + 13.49% Republican
'92: Bush (38.47 - 36.52) = + 7.51% Republican
'96: Clinton (46.52 - 44.29) = + 6.30% Republican
'00: Bush (51.02 - 44.73) = + 6.80% Republican
'04: Bush (54.87 - 44.40) = + 8.01% Republican
Arkansas:
'88: Bush (56.37 - 42.19) = + 6.46% Republican
'92: Clinton (53.21 - 35.48) = + 12.17% Democratic
'96: Clinton (53.74 - 36.80) = + 8.41% Democratic
'00: Bush (51.31 - 45.86) = + 5.76% Republican
'04: Bush (54.31 - 44.55) = + 7.30% Republican
(note: '92 and '96 are obviously more reflective of a massive favorite son swing than political tendencies of the state. notice the extremely similar non-Clinton net margins of '88, '00 and '04)
California:
'88: Bush (51.13 - 47.56) = + 4.15% Democratic
'92: Clinton (46.01 - 32.61) = + 7.84% Democratic
'96: Clinton (51.10 - 38.21) = + 4.36% Democratic
'00: Gore (53.45 - 41.65) = + 11.29% Democratic
'04: Kerry (54.31 - 44.36) = + 12.41% Democratic
Colorado:
'88: Bush (53.06 - 45.28) = + 0.06% Republican
'92: Clinton (40.13 - 35.87) = + 1.30% Republican
'96: Dole (45.80 - 44.43) = + 9.90% Republican
'00: Bush (50.75 - 42.39) = + 8.87% Republican
'04: Bush (51.69 - 47.02) = + 2.21% Republican
Connecticut:
'88: Bush (51.98 - 46.87) = + 2.61% Democratic
'92: Clinton (42.21 - 35.78) = + 0.87% Democratic
'96: Clinton (52.83 - 34.69) = + 9.61% Democratic
'00: Gore (55.91 - 38.44) = + 16.96% Democratic
'04: Kerry (54.31 - 43.95) = + 12.82% Democratic
(note: again, note the obvious Lieberman influence from 2000, worth the standard 3 to 4 points for a VP nominee if the state has not been represented on the ticket recently)
Delaware:
'88: Bush (55.88 - 43.48) = + 4.68% Republican
'92: Clinton (43.51 - 35.31) = + 2.64% Democratic
'96: Clinton (51.82 - 36.58) = + 6.71% Democratic
'00: Gore (54.96 - 41.90) = + 12.55% Democratic
'04: Kerry (53.35 - 45.75) = + 10.06% Democratic
District of Columbia:
'88: Dukakis (83.70 - 14.49) = + 76.93% Democratic
'92: Clinton (84.64 - 9.10) = + 69.98% Democratic
'96: Clinton (85.19 - 9.34) = + 67.32% Democratic
'00: Gore (85.16 - 8.95) = + 75.70% Democratic
'04: Kerry (89.18 - 9.34) = + 82.30% Democratic
Florida:
'88: Bush (60.87 - 38.51) = + 14.64% Republican
'92: Bush (40.89 - 39.00) = + 7.45% Republican
'96: Clinton (48.02 - 42.32) = + 2.83% Republican
'00: Bush* (48.85 - 48.84) = + 0.52% Republican
* (my estimated adjustment, after elongated analysis and plenty of admitted guesswork, was Gore 49.18 - Bush 48.53 = + 0.14% Democratic)
'04: Bush (52.10 - 47.09) = + 2.55% Republican
Georgia:
'88: Bush (59.75 - 39.50) = + 12.53% Republican
'92: Clinton (43.47 - 42.88) = + 4.97% Republican
'96: Dole (47.01 - 45.84) = + 9.70% Republican
'00: Bush (54.67 - 42.98) = + 12.20% Republican
'04: Bush (57.97 - 41.37) = + 14.14% Republican
Hawaii:
'88: Dukakis (54.27 - 44.75) = + 17.24% Democratic
'92: Clinton (48.09 - 36.70) = + 5.83% Democratic
'96: Clinton (56.93 - 31.64) = + 16.76% Democratic
'00: Gore (55.79 - 37.46) = + 17.82% Democratic
'04: Kerry (54.01 - 45.26) = +11.21% Democratic
Idaho:
'88: Bush (62.08 - 36.01) = + 18.35% Republican
'92: Bush (42.03 - 28.42) = + 19.17% Republican
'96: Dole (52.18 - 33.65) = + 27.06% Republican
'00: Bush (67.17 - 27.64) = + 40.04% Republican
'04: Bush (68.38 - 30.26) = + 35.66% Republican
Illinois:
'88: Bush (50.69 - 48.60) = + 5.63% Democratic
'92: Clinton (48.58 - 34.34) = + 8.68% Democratic
'96: Clinton (54.31 - 36.81) = + 8.97% Democratic
'00: Gore (54.60 - 42.58) = + 11.51% Democratic
'04: Kerry (54.82 - 44.48) = + 12.80% Democratic
Indiana:
'88: Bush (59.84 - 39.69) = + 12.43% Republican
'92: Bush (42.91 - 36.79) = + 11.68% Republican
'96: Dole (47.13 - 41.55) = + 14.11% Republican
'00: Bush (56.65 - 41.01) = + 16.15% Republican
'04: Bush (59.94 - 39.26) = + 18.22% Republican
Iowa:
'88: Dukakis (54.71 - 44.50) = + 17.93% Democratic
'92: Clinton (43.29 - 37.27) = + 0.46% Democratic
'96: Clinton (50.26 - 39.92) = + 1.81% Democratic
'00: Gore (48.54 - 48.22) = + 0.19% Republican
'04: Bush (49.90 - 49.23) = + 1.79% Democratic
Kansas:
'88: Bush (55.79 - 42.56) = + 5.51% Republican
'92: Bush (38.88 - 33.74) = + 10.70% Republican
'96: Dole (54.29 - 36.08) = + 26.74% Republican
'00: Bush (58.04 - 37.24) = + 21.31% Republican
'04: Bush (62.00 - 36.62) = + 22.92% Republican
Kentucky:
'88: Bush (55.52 - 43.88) = + 3.92% Republican
'92: Clinton (44.55 - 41.34) = + 2.35% Republican
'96: Clinton (45.84 - 44.88) = + 7.57% Republican
'00: Bush (56.50 - 41.37) = + 15.64% Republican
'04: Bush (59.55 - 39.69) = + 17.40% Republican
Louisiana:
'88: Bush (54.27 - 44.06) = + 2.49% Republican
'92: Clinton (45.58 - 40.97) = + 0.95% Republican
'96: Clinton (52.01 - 39.94) = + 3.54% Democratic
'00: Bush (52.55 - 44.88) = + 8.18% Republican
'04: Bush (56.72 - 42.22) = + 12.04% Republican
Maine:
'88: Bush (55.34 - 43.88) = + 3.66% Republican
'92: Clinton (38.77 - 30.44) = + 2.77% Democratic
'96: Clinton (51.62 - 30.76) = + 12.33% Democratic
'00: Gore (49.09 - 43.97) = + 4.61% Democratic
'04: Kerry (53.57 - 44.58) = + 11.45% Democratic
Maryland:
'88: Bush (51.11 - 48.20) = + 4.81% Democratic
'92: Clinton (49.80 - 35.62) = + 8.62% Democratic
'96: Clinton (54.25 - 38.27) = + 7.45% Democratic
'00: Gore (56.57 - 40.18) = + 15.88% Democratic
'04: Kerry (55.91 - 42.93) = + 15.44% Democratic
Massachusetts:
'88: Dukakis (53.23 - 45.37) = + 15.58% Democratic
'92: Clinton (47.54 - 29.02) = + 12.96% Democratic
'96: Clinton (61.47 - 28.08) = + 24.86% Democratic
'00: Gore (59.80 - 32.50) = + 26.79% Democratic
'04: Kerry (61.94 - 36.78) = + 27.62% Democratic
Michigan:
'88: Bush (53.57 - 45.67) = + 0.18% Republican
'92: Clinton (43.77 - 36.38) = + 1.83% Democratic
'96: Clinton (51.69 - 38.48) = + 4.68% Democratic
'00: Gore (51.28 - 46.14) = + 4.63% Democratic
'04: Kerry (51.23 - 47.81) = + 5.88% Democratic
Minnesota:
'88: Dukakis (52.91 - 45.90) = + 14.73% Democratic
'92: Clinton (43.48 - 31.85) = + 6.07% Democratic
'96: Clinton (51.10 - 34.96) = + 7.61% Democratic
'00: Gore (47.91 - 45.50) = + 1.90% Democratic
'04: Kerry (51.09 - 47.61) = + 5.94% Democratic
Mississippi:
'88: Bush (59.89 - 39.07) = + 13.10% Republican
'92: Bush (49.68 - 40.77) = + 14.47% Republican
'96: Dole (49.21 - 44.08) = + 13.66% Republican
'00: Bush (57.62 - 40.70) = + 17.43% Republican
'04: Bush (59.45 - 39.73) = + 17.26% Republican
Missouri:
'88: Bush (51.82 - 47.84) = + 3.74% Democratic
'92: Clinton (44.07 - 33.92) = + 4.59% Democrat
'96: Clinton (47.54 - 41.24) = + 2.23% Republican
'00: Bush (50.42 - 47.08) = + 3.85% Republican
'04: Bush (53.30 - 46.10) = + 4.74% Republican
Montana:
'88: Bush (52.07 - 46.20) = + 1.85% Democratic
'92: Clinton (37.63 - 35.12) = + 3.05% Republican
'96: Dole (44.11 - 41.23) = + 11.41% Republican
'00: Bush (58.44 - 33.36) = + 25.59% Republican
'04: Bush (59.07 - 38.56) = + 18.05% Republican
Nebraska:
'88: Bush (60.15 - 39.20) = + 13.23% Republican
'92: Bush (46.58 - 29.40) = + 22.74% Republican
'96: Dole (53.66 - 34.95) = + 27.24% Republican
'00: Bush (62.25 - 33.25) = + 29.51% Republican
'04: Bush (65.90 - 32.68) = + 30.76% Republican
Nevada:
'88: Bush (58.86 - 37.92) = + 13.22% Republican
'92: Clinton (37.36 - 34.73) = + 2.93% Republican
'96: Clinton (43.93 - 42.91) = + 7.51% Republican
'00: Bush (49.52 - 45.98) = + 4.05% Republican
'04: Bush (50.47 - 47.88) = + 0.13% Republican
New Hampshire:
'88: Bush (62.41 - 36.29) = + 18.40% Republican
'92: Clinton (38.86 - 37.64) = + 4.34% Republican
'96: Clinton (49.32 - 39.37) = + 1.42% Democratic
'00: Bush (48.07 - 46.80) = + 1.78% Republican
'04: Kerry (50.24 - 48.87) = + 3.83% Democratic
New Jersey:
'88: Bush (56.24 - 42.60) = + 5.92% Republican
'92: Clinton (42.95 - 40.58) = + 3.19% Republican
'96: Clinton (53.72 - 35.86) = + 9.33% Democratic
'00: Gore (56.13 - 40.29) = + 15.33% Democratic
'04: Kerry (52.92 - 46.24) = + 9.14% Democratic
New Mexico:
'88: Bush (51.86 - 46.90) = + 2.76 Democratic
'92: Clinton (45.90 - 37.34) = + 3.00% Democratic
'96: Clinton (49.18 - 41.86) = + 1.21% Republican
'00: Gore (47.91 - 47.85) = + 0.45% Republican
'04: Bush (49.84 - 49.05) = + 1.67% Democratic
New York:
'88: Dukakis (51.62 - 47.52) = + 11.82% Democratic
'92: Clinton (49.73 - 33.88) = + 10.29% Democratic
'96: Clinton (59.47 - 30.61) = + 20.33% Democratic
'00: Gore (60.21 - 35.23) = + 24.47% Democratic
'04: Kerry (58.37 - 40.08) = + 20.75% Democratic
North Carolina:
'88: Bush (57.97 - 41.71) = + 8.54% Republican
'92: Bush (43.44 - 42.65) = + 6.35% Republican
'96: Dole (48.73 - 44.04) = + 13.22% Republican
'00: Bush (56.03 - 43.20) = + 13.34% Republican
'04: Bush (56.02 - 43.58) = + 9.98% Republican
(note: based on the near-identical partisan numbers from 1996 and 2000, John Edwards provided precisely the typical 3-4 point VP boost in his home state)
North Dakota:
'88: Bush (56.03 - 42.97) = + 5.34% Republican
'92: Bush (44.22 - 32.18) = + 17.60% Republican
'96: Dole (46.94 - 40.13) = + 15.34% Republican
'00: Bush (60.66 - 33.06) = + 28.11% Republican
'04: Bush (62.86 - 35.50) = + 24.90% Republican
Ohio:
'88: Bush (55.00 - 44.15) = + 3.13% Republican
'92: Clinton (40.18 - 38.35) = + 3.73% Republican
'96: Clinton (47.38 - 41.02) = + 2.17% Republican
'00: Bush (49.97 - 46.46) = + 4.02% Republican
'04: Bush (50.81 - 48.71) = + 0.36% Democratic
(note: I would be hesitant to expect Ohio to remain a dead-even or slightly Democratic state compared to the national vote. It suffered a much worse than average state economy from 2000 to 2004 and may revert to the typical 2-4 point GOP edge if that balances out)
Oklahoma:
'88: Bush (57.93 - 41.28) = + 8.93% Republican
'92: Bush (42.65 - 34.02) = + 14.19% Republican
'96: Dole (48.26 - 40.45) = + 16.34% Republican
'00: Bush (60.31 - 38.43) = + 22.39% Republican
'04: Bush (65.57 - 34.43) = + 28.68% Republican
Oregon:
'88: Dukakis (51.28 - 46.61) = + 12.39% Democratic
'92: Clinton (42.48 - 32.53) = + 4.39% Democratic
'96: Clinton (47.15 - 39.06) = + 0.44% Republican
'00: Gore (46.96 - 46.52) = + 0.07% Republican
'04: Kerry (51.35 - 47.19) = + 6.62% Democratic
Pennsylvania:
'88: Bush (50.70 - 48.39) = + 5.41% Democratic
'92: Clinton (45.15 - 36.13) = + 3.46% Democratic
'96: Clinton (49.17 - 39.97) = + 0.67% Democratic
'00: Gore (50.60 - 46.43) = + 3.66% Democratic
'04: Kerry (50.92 - 48.42) = + 4.96% Democratic
Rhode Island:
'88: Dukakis (55.64 - 43.93) = + 19.43% Democratic
'92: Clinton (47.04 - 29.02) = + 12.46% Democratic
'96: Clinton (59.71 - 26.82) = + 24.36% Democratic
'00: Gore (60.99 - 31.91) = + 28.57% Democratic
'04: Kerry (59.42 - 38.67) = + 23.21% Democratic
South Carolina:
'88: Bush (61.50 - 37.58) = + 16.20% Republican
'92: Bush (48.02 - 39.88) = + 13.70% Republican
'96: Dole (49.79 - 43.96) = + 14.36% Republican
'00: Bush (56.84 - 40.90) = + 16.45% Republican
'04: Bush (57.98 - 40.90) = + 14.62% Republican
South Dakota:
'88: Bush (52.85 - 46.51) = + 1.38% Democratic
'92: Bush (40.66 - 37.14) = + 9.08% Republican
'96: Dole (46.49 - 43.03) = + 11.99% Republican
'00: Bush (60.30 - 37.56) = + 23.25% Republican
'04: Bush (59.91 - 38.44) = + 19.01% Republican
Tennessee:
'88: Bush (57.89 - 41.55) = + 8.62% Republican
'92: Clinton (47.08 - 42.43) = + 0.91% Republican
'96: Clinton (48.00 - 45.59) = + 6.12% Republican
'00: Bush (51.15 - 47.28) = + 4.38% Republican
'04: Bush (56.80 - 42.53) = + 11.81% Republican
(note: notice the obvious impact Gore had in '92, '96 and 2000 while on the ticket. He gets a bad rap for not carrying his home state. Based on the numbers from 1988 and 2004 without Gore on the ticket, Tennessee obviously defaults to basically 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole. Probably slightly less than that, since we did not campaign in Tennessee during 2004, skewing the number high)
Texas:
'88: Bush (55.95 - 43.35) = + 4.88% Republican
'92: Bush (40.56 - 37.08) = + 9.04% Republican
'96: Dole (48.76 - 43.83) = + 13.46% Republican
'00: Bush (59.30 - 37.98) = + 21.83% Republican
'04: Bush (61.09 - 38.22) = + 20.41% Republican
(note: like Arkansas in '92 and '96, Texas '00 and '04 is certainly candidate-driven to some degree and inflated several points from the actual partisanship of the state)
Utah:
'88: Bush (66.22 - 32.05) = + 26.45% Republican
'92: Bush (43.36 - 24.65) = + 24.27% Republican
'96: Dole (54.37 - 33.30) = + 29.60% Republican
'00 Bush (66.83 - 26.34) = + 41.00% Republican
'04: Bush (71.54 - 26.00) = + 43.08% Republican
Vermont:
'88: Bush (51.10 - 47.58) = + 4.20% Democratic
'92: Clinton (46.11 - 30.42) = + 10.13% Democratic
'96: Clinton (53.35 - 31.09) = + 13.73% Democratic
'00: Gore (50.63 - 40.70) = + 9.42% Democratic
'04: Kerry (58.94 - 38.80) = + 22.60% Democratic
Virginia:
'88: Bush (59.74 - 39.23) = + 12.79% Republican
'92: Bush (44.97 - 40.59) = + 9.94% Republican
'96: Dole (47.10 - 45.15) = + 10.48% Republican
'00: Bush (52.47 - 44.44) = + 8.54% Republican
'04: Bush (53.68 - 45.48) = + 5.74% Republican
Washington:
'88: Dukakis (50.05 - 48.46) = + 9.31% Democratic
'92: Clinton (43.40 - 31.96) = + 5.88% Democratic
'96: Clinton (49.84 - 37.30) = + 4.01% Democratic
'00: Gore (50.16 - 44.58) = + 5.07% Democratic
'04: Kerry (52.82 - 45.64) = + 9.64% Democratic
West Virginia:
'88: Dukakis (52.20 - 47.46) = + 12.46% Democratic
'92: Clinton (48.41 - 35.39) = + 7.46% Democratic
'96: Clinton (51.50 - 36.76) = + 6.21% Democratic
'00: Bush (51.92 - 45.59) = + 6.84% Republican
'04: Bush (56.06 - 43.20) = + 10.40% Republican
Wisconsin:
'88: Dukakis (51.41 - 47.80) = + 11.33% Democratic
'92: Clinton (41.13 - 36.78) = + 1.21% Republican
'96: Clinton (48.81 - 38.48) = + 1.80% Democratic
'00: Gore (47.83 - 47.61) = + 0.29% Republican
'04: Kerry (49.70 - 49.32) = + 2.84% Democratic
Wyoming:
'88: Bush (60.53 - 38.01) = + 14.80% Republican
'92: Bush (39.56 - 33.98) = + 11.14% Republican
'96: Dole (49.81 - 36.84) = + 21.50% Republican
'00: Bush (67.76 - 27.70) = + 40.57% Republican
'04: Bush (68.86 - 29.07) = + 37.33% Republican
(note: overlooked and irrelevant, but Cheney has apparently made a substantial impact here, predictably to somewhat lesser degree the second cycle on the ticket. Tiny amount of votes in Wyoming so a favorite son swing of thousands of votes has a much greater impact than typical in regard to percentages)