PA Senate: Casey (D) 48%, Santorum (R) 40%, Romanelli (G) 5% (Rasmussen)

[skipos]

August 25, 2006

After having lagged by as much as twenty-three percentage points this election season, Republican Senator Rick Santorum now trails Democrat Bob Casey, Jr. by only eight, 40% to 48% (see crosstabs).

Until now the incumbent has failed to pull within single digits of his opponent. Last month, Santorum suffered an eleven-point deficit in our poll, which he'd shaved from fifteen points in June. But Santorum had also been eleven points behind in March...a gap that in May more than doubled.

This poll has shifted Pennsylvania from “Democrat” to “Leans Democrat” in our Balance of Power summary.

http://rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/August%202006/PennsylvaniaSenate.htm

[Zynx]

1. Without that filthy bastard Romanelli, Casey would have a 12-13 pt lead.

[Eric J in MN]

5. The national Green Party is supporting the PA Greens

...decision to let the Republicans provide their funding and volunteers, saying that all parties get support from other parties.

However, when 99% of a Green Party candidate's money comes from Republicans, it's not the like a Democrat getting 10% of his donations from Republicans.

[Ignacio Upton]

14. Casey needs to get the word out on Romanelli

And how he is a fraud and a stooge for Santorum.

[MH1]

26. Do you have a link to that?

The PA state Green leader (I think) Mike Morrill, made statements on NPR back when this came out, that sounded like he was pretty unhappy with Romanelli's actions.

So it sounds like: county party will do anything to get their guy on the ballot; state party denounces those tactics; national party says those tactics are a-ok, thus undermining the state party.

Just trying to figure this out. :shrug:

[HootieMcBoob]

28. The Green Party Has Jumped The Shark

They can not be trusted to do what's in the best interest of their country. They will accept money and help from Republicans in order to help get Republicans elected to office at every turn. They've done it before and they will do it again. The Greep Party has done much more harm to the country and set back the issues that they supposedly stand for over and over.

[uberblonde]

2. I'm not worried.

Casey just started advertising in Philadelphia, and Santorum's spent a few million here on TV. Casey will lengthen that lead soon.

[tabasco]

4. Yep. Needless to say Santorum took the low road.

Lots of negative ads in the Pittsburgh area.

Haven't seen much from Casey on tv, although it should be good when it hits.

[globalvillage]

3. Santorum has twice the money

so he's been running ads for weeks. Casey ads are just starting to run now. And Rendell, who has a wide lead over Swann, will be doing a combined phone/canvassing campaign with Casey. That will help.
A couple weeks, and Casey's lead will be back in double digits.

[Radical Activist]

15. I was wondering what happened.

It sounds like the ads may explain it. I hope Casey gets the money for some decent TV time. You would think he could do a lot of national fundraising.

[Straight Shooter]

6. Rasmussen poll. They notoriously skew Republican.

I wonder what the other polls are showing.

[TheVirginian]

24. No, they don't. And other polls are showing the same 8-pt. lead.

[Straight Shooter]

27. Yes, they do. Rasmussen is a conservative to the marrow of his bones.

http://conwebwatch.tripod.com/stories/2003/wndpolls.html

WND (World Net Dailey) found a pollster who puts out the kind of polls it likes. Scott Rasmussen is a co-founder of the cable sports network ESPN turned pollster who (probably more important to folks like WND) is also author of a book called "The GOP Generation," which "explains underlying issues, trends, and other factors moving the nation to a lasting Republican majority." He has a deal with WND to promote his poll results there.

In addition to plugging his TV appearances, WND has written regularly about Rasmussen's surveys.

...

And then there's the obligatory fawning Jon Dougherty story on Rasmussen, noting that an "independent" review called Rasmussen's polling the most accurate.

Rasmussen also wrote columns for WND during and after the 2000 election -- and he said what WND readers wanted to hear. In an Nov. 1., 2000, piece he pondered why reporters called the 2000 presidential election too close to call when "all tracking polls show George Bush ahead by at least one point." One answer he came up with: "Many in the media seem to be in a state of denial. It could be that they expected Gore to win and just can't quite come to grips with data challenging their basic assessment." He also predicted that "The geography of this year's race is such that polls will close in most major "toss up" states by 8 p.m. (Eastern). ... By that point in time, it is likely that George W. Bush will have picked up the 39 electoral votes from toss-up states that he needs to win the presidency." (A poll Rasmussen took in the middle of the post-election turmoil claimed that "nearly half of Americans believe the Democratic Party is most responsible for voter fraud.")



Nothing quite like a probable push poll designed to show the Democratic Party is most responsible for voter fraud. Rasmussen didn't even use the correct term, "election fraud." That little poll was probably just a bit of insurance in case bush wasn't able to steal Florida, to plant the seed of doubt in people's minds. Rasmussen is a rabid skunk.

[femmocrat]

7. I seriously doubt that Romanelli has 5%.

No one ever heard of him; he is a fringe candidate. If he gets 1-2%, I will still be surprised.

[Mark E. Smith]

12. Agreed

Particularly as awareness of where his tainted funding came from starts to sink in.

[Hoosier Dem]

8. Could Casey's pro-life stance be hurting him??

I'm just wondering if Casey's pro-life stance could be keeping him from doing better. UI remember his Dad took a lot of heat from Dems about his stance, even being denied a prime-time slot at the 1992 Democratic Convention.

If Casey just hasn't hit the ariwaves heavily yet, I hope he does soon. Rick Santorum is the most vile creature in the US Senate today.

[skipos]

11. He has had that stance for years, that wouldn't explain the recent

tightening of the race. I believe Casey supports Plan B contraception and stem cell research, while Santorum doesn't. While many people won't vote for Casey because he is pro-life, he and Santorum aren't the same on the issue.

[rep the dems]

9. Weren't there polls a couple of weeks ago showing Santorum

trailing by single digits?

[saltpoint]

10. Santorum loses in November.

His own polls must be telling him that.

After weeks of accelerated nastiness against Casey, he's still 8 points behind. That's a comfortable margin for Casey, who hasn't even put any bullets in his pistol yet.

End of the road for icky Ricky.

[Ignacio Upton]

13. Santorum is blowing his wad (pun intended)

While I'm pissed that Casey isn't being more aggressive, I understand the practical need to time his ads since he doesn't have as much money as little Ricky. Casey, IMHO, also needs to start running ads about Santorum's vocal support for privatizing Social Security, since Pennsylvania has a high percentage of senior voters. He also needs to highlight his overall wingnuttery on social issues outside of abortion itself (like Santorum's opposition to contraception and woman's rights and stem cell research and the right to privacy.)

[saltpoint]

20. Yes. As the campaign makes the turn into fall, Casey's ads are going

to show the down side to re-electing Rick Santorum. And the down side is way, way down there.

Go, Democrats.:dem:

[zann725]

16. If this poll was taken by Rasmussen...no wonder.

n/t

[The Wolf]

17. Romanelli will be gone by mid-September.

That's my opinion on the matter, quietly observing it from afar. The decision made by the 3rd Circuit in PA yesterday is gonna be the first nail in his coffin, if his association with Republicans hasn't already alienated any of the good Greens still in that state. They'll appeal to the Supreme Court, they'll rule for the PA Dems', and Santorum will get his rightful asskicking and eventual jettison into the darkest parts of Hell with Hitler and Genghis Khan that his record in the U.S. Senate so rightfully is promised to him. And I'll raise the cold drink high in celebration with the sweet harmony of the Blues when it happens.

[Awsi Dooger]

18. This poll makes sense also

We'll win this one semi-comfortably. The demographics favor Casey and even while Santorum's been cutting the margin with the ad barrage, it's primarily been moving Casey supporters to the undecided column and not shifting them to Santorum's camp.

Some polls have this a 5 or 6 point gap so this one is an uptick, although down from previous Rasmussen findings.

As has already been posted here, the Green is unlikely to make the ballot since the sigs are bogus and the court cases to alter the reference number for necessary number of sigs have gone against them.

[hijinx87]

19. I understand that the rethugs will unleash a huge ad barrage

on or after labor day. nationwide.

this one worries me, but casey is a very strong candidate.

(I also worry with a four run lead in the ninth, though)

[RamboLiberal]

21. Finally saw on TV tonight Casey's hitback ad against Santorum

Good one! Starts Rick Santorum is attacking Bob Casey's record? Starts with Casey accomplishments. Hits back against Ricky by showing how many times he voted himself a raise while voting against raising the minimum wage. Finishes with Santorum votes with Bush 98% of the time (shows Ricky sitting next to Bush) even to privatize Social Security.

Hope Casey has the $$$$ to run this a lot.

You can see the ad here. http://www.bobcasey.com/feature/record/

[saltpoint]

22. Casey can hit back pretty hard. He knows the state at least as well as

Man-on-Dog.

You go get 'im, Bob. Let's show the incumbent the damn door.

[LostInAnomie]

23. Sometimes you have to wonder about the intelligence of the Greens.

It's obvious to everyone who doesn't have their head up their ass that their candidate was placed there by the Repukes to be a spoiler. How could they not see that a vote for Romanelli is a vote for Santorum?

I can appreciate wanting to have you issues addressed, and in most cases I agree with their positions, but save that shit for an election where you don't risk electing one of the most disgusting human beings on the face of the Earth for another 6 years.

[TheVirginian]

25. I think the point of being a Green

Is that they don't like the principles of the Democratic Party just like they don't like the principles of the Republican Party. Most people I know that vote third-party, whether its Green, Libertarian, et al., are equally disgusted with both parties.