*HOW* can they win a majority in Congress?

[underpants]

Is there a good breakdown seat by seat of what is up for grabs-the ones that are even closely contested?

I haven't seen anything to substantively support all the calls of the Dems taking back control of the House or the Senate.

Maybe I am gun shy but the whole thing smells like a set up to me especially since I have not seen any kind of analysis that supports any of the declarations of early victory and early demise. Sure W isn't popular but that doesn't necessarily mean that candidates will lose or pick up votes because of that. Usually a truly sad 95% of House races aren't really even in the offering.

Before you ask NO I have not volunteered for the Webb (Va.) campaign yet-demands of parenthood and careers take precedent right now- but we have contributed. I do plan on doing some sort of volunteering in the next two months though.

[Sherman A1]

1. Agreed

I don't see either house changing hands. The exception might be the generic Democrat that shows up in the polls, but then we don't vote for generic candidates do we?

[underpants]

2. I'm not saying it can't or won't happen

I just haven't seen any kind of analysis that shows HOW it is supposed to happen or HOW it is possible. I am just fishing for a link I guess.

[AndyA]

3. I've seen several articles about this, but couldn't tell you where I saw

them. I know it seems we are up against overwhelming odds, but most Americans want change, which is good for us. They are not prepared to continue forward with the status quo, because that just means more war, more money going overseas, more troops dying, more lies. And they know that.

I think Americans are going to vote for change in November. Of course, we do have those electronic voting machines to worry about. If the Dems don't win back at least the House in November, we can likely chalk it up to another election stolen.

America is going to have to take action to get these goons out of office, especially since there is a lot of evidence showing they shouldn't be there in the first place!

[underpants]

5. 8%

Here in Va. at least I would put it at 8%--the margin Webb has to win by to get a win against Allen. Virginia is clearly a vote inflater for the Republicans, who knew there were THAT MANY people out in the valley?

Fixed elections aren't the only reason though-it is really tough to beat an incumbent ($$$) and I don't see/hear a huge amount of interest in the elections I hope I am wrong and maybe post Labor Day things will get into full gear .....we'll see.

[AndyA]

6. I think interest in the elections will ramp up after Labor Day.

Right now, people are getting the kids ready for back to school, and planning for Labor Day, which closes out the summer. Then they start to look toward fall, and the elections will have more interest.

Incumbents normally are tough to beat, but if you look at some of the races, the incumbents don't have those big leads in the polls like you would expect them to have. With high utility bills arriving each month, high gas prices, a growing number of dead soldiers in Iraq, the motivation is to vote for change.

Give it a few weeks, I think you'll see more interest in the November elections once we get past Labor Day.

[radwriter0555]

4. Got Diebold? Why is everyone not factoring in the corruptability of the US

vote these days?

Don't discount the power of diebold and corruption. It's been working GREAT for the GOP for the past 6 years.

[1932]

7. The Dem Party can't write off the south the way we did in 2004 if we

want to win Congress.

[CrispyQ]

8. Maybe this will be helpful.

http://www.electionprojection.com/

[underpants]

10. THAT is exactly what I was looking for

Thank you very much

[Stinky The Clown]

9. In the Senate, almost all polls show us with pickups in

Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.

If we win all those and hold what we have (likely) we still come up one short of a majority. Most early polls felt that was where it would end up.

However, it doesn't end there. Tennessee and Virginia are now both seen as possible pickups for us. In Tennessee, Harold Ford Jr is running a near-perfect campaign against former Chattanooga mayor, Bob Corker. Ford seems to strike *exactly* the right balance with Tennessee's voters while Corker just had some big scandal break over some swamp land (literally) he sold to WalMart. Seems the land, whch he owned, was protected as wetlands by city fiat. He changed the city law and sold the land to WalMart for huge personal gain. Current polling shows a close race, with at least one poll having Ford ahead. There is no evidence, yet, that this poll was an outlier. Most handicappers are putting this one in the 'toss up' category.

In Virginia, Webb was seen as a long shot, at best. He hasn't raised a lot of money, and had little state-wide name recognition. And yet he keeps climbing in the polls, with Allen dropping and also seeing sub-50 favorables. So Senator Macaca seems to have changed all the early calculus. The Dems are now paying more attention to the race. Indications - not actual results yet - are that the money may soon start flowing to his campaign. Further, the horserace handicappers are all moving this from 'solid republican' down to 'leans republican', with a few moving it to 'toss-up'

In a Louis Armstrong 'Wonderful World' scenario, we pick up all the predicted pick-ups and we get these two close seats.

Too many House races to go into here .......

[underpants]

11. Thanks

see the link on post #8 too.

:hi: