Gallup: Dem lead Narrows in Generic Ballot(47-45)

[Tiggeroshii]

Democratic Lead on Generic Ballot Narrows
But Democrats remain significantly more enthusiastic about the election


by Lydia Saad

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new USA Today/Gallup survey finds Republicans edging closer to the Democrats in voter preferences for this year's midterm congressional elections, mirroring the slight increase seen in President Bush's job approval rating on the same poll.

According to the August 18-20 poll, the Democrats now lead the Republicans by two points, 47% vs. 45%, as the party more registered voters say they will support in this fall's congressional elections. That is down from a 9-point lead earlier this month, and an average Democratic lead of 10 points in the previous three polls conducted in July and August. It also represents the Republicans' best performance in a single poll during this election cycle on this important measure of electoral strength.

.....

The latest poll included a question measuring voter enthusiasm for the election, asked each midterm election year since 1994. Close to half of Democrats (46%) compared with 36% of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year than usual. At the same time, 46% of Democrats say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual, while 43% say they are less enthusiastic. Republicans tilt negative on this question with only 36% saying they are more enthusiastic and 40% saying less enthusiastic.

...........

Today's 10-point Democratic advantage in the percentage saying they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual (46% vs. 36%) is slightly lower than their 12- to 15-point lead on this question earlier this year, but still substantially higher than their position on this question in any of the previous three midterm elections (1994, 1998, and 2002).

http://poll.gallup.com/content/?ci=24229

I honestly think there's just a bounce for the Repugs from recent events that will go away by october. They'll be back down to their 20 point deficit with Bush's 29% approval once the election rolls along.

[AndyA]

1. Temporary improvement for the GOP. Just wait until the next scandal

is announced. More trouble for the Republicans means more votes for the Democrats in November. We still have a couple of months, there's plenty of time for more GOP shit to hit the fan. And with every new revelation, they lose more of their base, which they depend on. It's been eroding for years, and now the erosion is faster than ever.

[Tiggeroshii]

4. Lately it's been happening on more local levels than national,re:" macaca"

And Burns's pretty crazy statements mixed with Bob Corker's developing tax scandal. Things have still been looking better for us.

President Bush has a 41% approval rating in Virginia. And a 39% approval rating in Tennessee. If we just equivocate those two Republicans with Bush, those states can be solidly ours before the election.

[ChiciB1]

2. Well... Sounding Like A Broken Record One More Time...

I will BELIEVE NOTHING until it's a "done deal!" Think E-Voting machines with NO PAPER trail, then think GERRYMANDERING!!

I live in Florida... the nightmare continues!!!

[liberal N proud]

3. Bringing the appearance of a close race to cover the stolen the election

Make the public believe that the republicans have the seats so they can do what ever is necessary to the numbers and no one will suspect anything but a fair election. After all, it was close all along.

[Mist]

8. That's the plan. I'll confess it worries me. Has to be JUST close enough

to Diebold without appearing suspicious. "Close all along". Right.

[bluestateguy]

5. This strikes me as false.

nt

[DeepModem Mom]

6. Very discouraging if true. I'd like to see another poll to confirm. nt

[derby378]

7. Karl Rove and his "UK terror plot" are to blame

Now that he's called Fitzgerald's bluff, he's back to scare Americans full-time.

[Kahuna]

9. Lieberman undermining the Dems with repuke talking points

have a hand in this too. Lieberman is calling the Democrats weak on terror because they don't agree with him on Iraq. Wouldn't you expect that if one of our *own* <sic>, is telling the world that we just don't get it, that would affect our polling?

[Awsi Dooger]

10. This is why the party favorability rating is so critical

Last generic poll I saw we were up 18 points but the approval rating of the Democratic party was only 47. I posted on another site I'd gladly give up at least 6 points off the generic edge if our approval number could be 50.

If you're viewed positively there is much less vulnerability to swings like this. Voters are already persuaded by the message and mostly unconcerned if the other side has a perceived uptick. However, we are relying on vote-against, remarkably flimsy and undependable. It's based on the calendar and luck. Subject to wild swings in loyalty.

I'd much rather be great than the other side considered terrible. For some reason, liberal blogs always have that reversed, rooting against the GOP and savoring their implosions.

[wisteria]

11. If the repubs think this scare tactic will gain them votes, they will

continue to manipulate the public by using them. We have a little more than two months until the election, I can't wait to see what the administration has cooked up for early November.
Dem's better beware and prepare and do something about Lieberman, also.

[tiptoe]

12. CNN/Gallup 42, CBS/NYT 36, Zogby 35, Harris 34, AP/Ipsos 33... * Approval

Historical Bush Approval Ratings: 2004-2006 Only - updated 8/23

Historical Bush Approval Ratings - updated 8/23

Gallup historically "inflated" for Bush (...Repubs)?