Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Well, that explains why the exit polls haven't been working

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
 
auburngrad82 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 09:27 AM
Original message
Well, that explains why the exit polls haven't been working
From the new Moveon.org e-mail I received yesterday:

"Republicans have also pioneered the use of early voting and absentee ballots to "bank" votes before Election Day.

"In some states, voting starts in October. Republicans have figured out how to get a big chunk of their supporters to vote early.

"On Election Day, they can focus all their energy on the small group of people who haven't voted yet. In some cases, they've got the election sewn up weeks early."

Exit polls don't mean shit if the GOP has their votes in the box before election day. I always take advantage of early voting here in NC but it never crossed my mind that the GOP made a concerted effort to get everyone to the polls before election day.



Liberal bumper stickers
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
Not Me Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 09:30 AM
Response to Original message
1. I hadn't thought of that (here in FL)...I assumed both parties
lobbied hard for early voting and the turnout was consistent with election day. Perhaps it's not.

One thing I always wondered is when the early votes are tabulated. And who knows how the early voting is trending.
I am sure the Secretary of State wouldn't disclose that information.

Our county (Orange, FL) is using touchscreen boxes for the first time, and has had an increase in the number of people requesting (paper) absentee ballots. What a surprise.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
SharonAnn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 12:24 PM
Response to Reply #1
25. Here in Tennessee, Dems do GOTV efforts to get theirs to vote early
We just did one for our August election.

General turnout in the county was 30%. Our targeted Democrats turned out at 51% (and 60% of them voted early). Now that we have the statistics to show it, we know to work even harder for early voting.

We did it in three phases.
1. Big card to all targeted households with Early Voting dates, times and locations. List of Democratic candidates. Reminder of HOW IMPORTANT it was and WHAT A DIFFERENCE their vote would make.
2. Phone Bank to all targeted households with Early Voting reminder.
3. List of all targeted voters who had not voted by end of Early Voting and we canvassed their households. Even with that, we could only get to 75% of them.

We're glad we got 51%, but it's a shame that with all that work we didn't get more. Of course, we had long lines on Election Day all over the county, often between 1-2 hours, because of the lengthy ballot and the new voting machines which people were learning how to use.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
LA lady Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 09:30 AM
Response to Original message
2. You are correct
I am an election commissioner. In Louisiana they don't call it absentee voting anymore; it's advanced voting and the republicans take great advantage of it for exactly the reason you quoted. They are free to get the stragglers to the polls on election day.

I never really fell for the exit poll theory for that reason, there are more Democrats actually voting on that day!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
auburngrad82 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 09:37 AM
Response to Reply #2
7. This is the biggest advantage for a political party
As you stated, "They are free to get the stragglers to the polls on election day."



Liberal bumper stickers
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
displacedtexan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 09:31 AM
Response to Original message
3. It's so much easier to cheat that way.
Repuke Motto: Fix the vote early and often!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
pooja Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 09:32 AM
Response to Original message
4. Well, absentee ballot is being encouraged by both parties.
Along with sending it certified. There won't be many left to go to the polls anymore except for the late voters. They might as well kill the machines, and let the people vote by paper again.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
napi21 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 09:41 AM
Response to Reply #4
9. MY problem with voting absentee here in Ga. is that the people
from the election office enter your vote in to the same touch screen machine that you would use if you voted in person. The ONLY way this would give you a paper trail is if EVERYBODY voted absentee, and that's just not going to happen.

I feel, at least if I enter my OWN info, I've eliminated thepossibility of a clerical error (or intentional wrong vote) by the elections clerk!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
lonehalf Donating Member (273 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 11:48 AM
Response to Reply #9
24. Not so in my county
I entered my vote myself.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
pazuzu Donating Member (97 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 09:33 AM
Response to Original message
5. The breakdown of the early votes in FL (52% Bush/ 47% Kerry)
was close (if not the smae) to the final results.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
neoblues Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 10:28 AM
Response to Reply #5
22. Strikes me as suspicious...
because there were so few machines setup to take the early voting that every single day that it was open prior to the day of the General Election, there were massive long lines and long waiting times--which generated significant complaints. The curious/suspicious part was that the Democrats were making a massive effort to take advantage of the early voting--in the hopes of avoiding the disenfranchisement tricks (being redirected to the wrong polling places, challenging/harrassing people based on looks (ie. color), too few machines in key Democratic areas resulting in impossibly long lines/waits, etc). While it seemed the Republicans took little, if any, organized notice of the early voting (based on the local reporting frequently making mention of Democrats voting early, as well as Democrats facing the long lines and complaining, etc., with nary a word about or from Republicans at the same time). I never did hear a breakdown of the early vote, yet you say it resembled the final outcome on Election Day... so, to me, seems a little strange (it make sense though, if you assume a 'fixed' election...).

It's all the more suspicious considering that after the Election, it was shown how in many Democratic precincts, the lines were extending out of the building and well beyond--forcing the polls to be kept open extra hours (and you just know that untold numbers of Democrats came to the polling place around late afternoon, saw the line wrapping around the outside of the building, and just gave up and went home. I find it tiresome and confusing, not having access to quality data (if anyone was allowed access to "quality" data--as in, IF it was even possible to obtain such), and not having a Doctorate in Mathematics, to go into the whole issue of the identified, statistically impossible patterns/outcomes involving the Bush vote counts analyzed by voting machine/counting machine types across Florida. My educated guess virtually concluded beyond much doubt that Bush once again managed to "steal" the election in Florida by both obvious and electronic fraud and manipulation. And my suspicion was that the Election Day totals, but for the irregularities, should have favored Kerry (or at the very worst, an actual tie).

Of course, it being known that the race in Florida would be close, it's probably that they would therefore decide on a modest vote margin for their win--therefore, it's no surprise after all that the pre-election voting statistics were approximately the same as the reported results for the election day (they wouild simply have fixed them both at the same margin of victory). For that matter, if they were fraudulently manipulating the totals, consider how much easier it must've been to manipulate the pre-election vote tallies... of course they weren't being reported, and naturally, where there were touch-screen machines, there was no paper-trail and no way before or after the election to produce adequate proof of fraud to force a recount even if a recount had been possible. If they were in control of the tallies, the only way a recount--even if it were possible--could be called for is if they deliberately decided to set the numbers to a virtual tie, and that would be self-defeating. The only other way would be to have proof of fraud, and with things done behind closed doors and within computers/electronic equipment, unless the person performing the fraud decided to risk their lives and confess in front of as many officials, law enforcement people, judges and numerous major members of the Press, we'd never know. Even if they did, the argument would be "it's an isolated case" and a seemingly impossible "hush" would fall over the whole proceedings. Indeed, I'd be surprised if a "whistle blower" of major electronic electoral fraud could even succeed in exposing the cheating--the media are easily enough told what not to report, and we have Republicans in high places in Florida (and obviously, we have Republicans in high places throughout the Federal Government, including the Justice Department...).

Whether they did or didn't blatantly defraud the vote, I suppose we'll never really know (until someone on their death-bed decides to tell all or some such admission--because we'll never catch them, and if we catch them, we'd never succeed in proving it to anyone (no matter how damning the evidence--the truth just doesn't seem to matter anymore)). It's also too late to fix the electoral procedures in the thousands of boards of election before November (2006)--and it's been only partially secured in a few places across the country... So, we need to start working on requiring the U.S. to revert to simple "paper" ballots and hand-counting before 2008. I am afraid we'll see Democrats fail to win in many races in which it "looked like" they might really win; and we'll all be shocked and dismayed once again. If it turns out that way, I will wonder to myself "won't we ever learn".
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
napi21 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 09:34 AM
Response to Original message
6. We usually take advantage of early voting here in Ga. too.
It usually starts about 2 weeks before the Nov. election. I don't know that any party makes a specific effort to push THEIR voters to vote early, but it makes sense to do so.

WHY don't we Dems push for the same thing?

The one advantage we found was, even in the Prez. election, you could swing by the voting place, and if the lines were really long, you knew you could come back tomorrow.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
pooja Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 09:47 AM
Response to Reply #6
12. We have early voting as well in Fl. But if its with a machine,
I think it can be easily tapped to see which way the vote is going, but I suppose the same can be said for the paper ballot. Just push for more democrats to work within the election spectra...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
klook Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 09:39 AM
Response to Original message
8. If you're going to hack the vote,
it's easier if you have more time. So the Republicans in the Diebold states should be encouraging Democrats to vote early so they can do a more thorough job of flipping their votes.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
SheilaT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 09:45 AM
Response to Original message
10. Advance voting,
as it's called here in Kansas, begins three weeks before election day. Democrats have been using it in the last few election cycles more than Republicans. It's promoted as a way for us to win elections, and I'm not honestly convinced it matters in the end.

Because the election board here in Johnson County actually reports the advance vote counts separately from the regular vote counts, it's possible to know if there's a statistically significant difference between the two sets of votes.

I know that here the advance votes are counted on election day itself around the times the polls close. I'm not sure if that's the case in other states.

So to see advance voting as another sneaky Republican thing is to completely misunderstand it.

I've been told by those who seem to know what they're talking about that those who get an advance ballot in their hands are far more likely to vote than those who intend to go to the polls on election day itself.

The other, far more important thing in my opinion, is that once the voter has mailed in his advance ballot or gone to the polling place at the election board, his vote is cast and he can no longer be persuaded to vote for you or your candidate. What that means is that election day, for all practical purposes, comes two or three weeks early for a significant percentage of the voters. Here in Johnson County two years ago at least a third of all ballots were cast early. I know that when I was running for office in '04, during the final weeks I kept on knocking on the doors of people who'd already voted, and had I only gotten to them earlier they'd have voted for me. It was a huge mistake to make my only mailing in the last few days, rather than 3-4 weeks earlier.

So again, don't focus on a mistaken "This is another way Republicans are stealing elections" but rather on what we have to do ourselves to exploit this trend.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
auburngrad82 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 09:57 AM
Response to Reply #10
16. Yeah, it's not a way to "steal" elections, it's something we need to do
Get people to the polls and get their votes registered before the GOP comes up with an October surprise meant to scare voters into going their way.



Liberal bumper stickers
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Skink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 09:46 AM
Response to Original message
11. How about week long voting....
If we can protect the early votes for however long why not leave the polls open for two weeks, all day and all night, so everyone can vote on their own time.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NCarolinawoman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 09:50 AM
Response to Original message
13. I have seen this.
They send out little cards to all registered GOP. I can't remember if they are already stamped. You send this in and you get your ballot. In
other words, the potential voter bi-passes the process of, "how do I get an absentee ballot? ,where do I call? Who do I write? etc.

This is great for the lazey voter, the elderly voter, and the "too busy to vote and be bothered" voter.

I have not seen the Dems do this.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
IndyOp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 09:50 AM
Response to Original message
14. NO WAY! You skipped provisional & spoiled ballots & e-voting problems
Edited on Wed Aug-23-06 09:54 AM by IndyOp
Early voting may go Republican in some areas (not in my county) but even if early voting being heavily Republican is part of the reason that election day exit polls are not matching election results - it is NOT even close to a complete explanation!

PROVISIONAL BALLOTS REJECTED: Provisional ballots are given to Democratic leaning populations and precincts - and the vast majority are not counted. (Indiana counted 15% of the provisionals cast in the last election). About 1.1 million were given out in 2004.

ABSENTEE BALLOTS REJECTED: Over half a million in 2004. In swing states, absentee ballot shredding was pandemic. (Florida conveniently labels the voter’s party on the ballot envelope).

SPOILED BALLOTS: About 1.4 million punch-card, optical scan, and e-vote ballots were cast but not counted. About ¾’s of a million African-American votes were not counted, about ¼ of a million Hispanic and Native American votes were not counted. Remaining 400,000+ uncounted votes belonged overwhelming to the poor.

In New Mexico the margin of victory for the Presidential race was 5,988 votes. E-voting machines in Kerry-leaning precincts failed to properly register a presidential vote on more than 20,000 ballots.

FINALLY, E-VOTING PROBLEMS ARE REAL: Your post seems to be saying - "If we can explain the exit poll - vote total discrepancies in terms of Republican-leaning early voting then we don't have to worry about electronic voting machine malfunction and fraud". YES, WE DO.

1. New Elections Needed after Electronic Voting Failures:

A memory limitation on paperless Unilect Patriot voting machines caused 4,438 votes to be permanently lost in North Carolina (2004).

AVS WINVote computers at some polling places failed to start up, others overheated and broke down during the election in Mississippi (2003).

2. “Phantom” Votes Added by Electronic Voting Machines.

After the 2004 General Election, phantom votes (more votes than voters) were reported in Florida, Nebraska, New Mexico, Ohio, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Washington. In North Carolina Microvote DREs showed nearly 3,000 more votes than voters; in New Mexico Sequoia AVC Edge DREs showed over 2,700 early voting phantom votes.

Hart Intercivic machines in Tarrant County, Texas recorded an additional 100,000 votes that were never actually cast in 2006 Primary Election (Formal challenge to results has been filed).

3. Bugs!

ES&S vote-tallying software counted to 32,767 and then counted backwards in November 2004 elections: 70,000 votes temporarily disappeared in Broward County, Florida; 8,400 votes in Orange County, Florida; and 22,000 votes in North Carolina.

4. Votes Jump to the Opponent on the Screen

In the November 2004 hundreds of votes jumped from Kerry to Bush in New Mexico (Sequoia), Maryland (Diebold) and elsewhere. Some voters could correct the problem, others not.

5. DRE’s Present Incorrect Ballots to Voters
In March 2004, the US Senate contest in Maryland was omitted from ballots in three counties.

6. Negative Votes Added to Tally

In Volusia County, Florida in 2000, Al Gore’s count dropped by 16,022 votes, while an obscure Socialist candidate picked up 10,000 votes at 10:30 PM on election night. Global Election Systems explained that two memory cards had been uploaded; there should have only been one memory card uploaded; the second card caused the problem. (BlackBoxVoting.org).

7. DREs Pass Pre-Election Testing, Fail on Election Day
In Mercer County, Pennsylvania all 250 UniLect Patriot machines had been checked and rechecked. On election day some machines never operated, some offered only black screens.

8. Programming Errors Give Votes to the Wrong Candidate (Vote Switching)
Ballot programming determines how a touch on a screen or marks on a ballot are translated into votes counted by the machine. In November 2000, 67,000 absentee and early-voting ballots were counted incorrectly by a Diebold optical scan machine in New Mexico. ES&S machines miscounted votes in North Carolina in 2004; in New Mexico in 2002; in Kansas in 2002

9. Voting Machines Present a Default Candidate (Electronic Version of a Pre-Marked Ballot)
In Travis County (Austin) Texas, Hart Intercivic eSlate DREs operated such that voters who voted straight party Democratic ticket and then pressed ‘enter’ on the next screen caused their Kerry/Edwards vote to be changed to the default candidate -> Bush/Cheney.

10. Voting Machines Do Not Count Some Votes
Voters claimed that machines failed to register votes for incumbent school-board member, Rita S. Thompson ( R ), who lost an election in Fairfax, Virginia by 1,662 votes. In post-election testing, election officials observed that one of the questionable machines appeared to subtract a vote from Thompson for about one out of every 100 attempts to vote for her.2

And, YES, the DEMOCRATIC PARTY ought to be working to Get-Out-The-Early-Vote! We do in my county -- at least 20% of all voters in the last election voted early and we are going to try to at least double that during this upcoming election


Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
auburngrad82 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 10:03 AM
Response to Reply #14
17. It's not meant to be a complete explanation
But it is something the GOP does that we can easily do. I have voted early in every election since NC started early voting. It's a matter of convenience for me. So instead of trying to get everyone to the polls on election day, and complaining because the GOP jammed our phones and people needing rides couldn't get through, or someone flattened the tires on our vans, etc etc, we work on getting people to the polls early before the October surprise or Election Day hijinx.

The GOP has a well thought out strategy that covers many tactics. This is simply one that we can take away from them.



Liberal bumper stickers
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
IndyOp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 10:17 AM
Response to Reply #17
19. In which case,
:toast:

:hi:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 10:25 AM
Response to Reply #14
21. Thank you, IndyOp! I would just add--here are the people who are
"counting" your votes electronically, with TRADE SECRET, PROPRIETARY programming code, and virtually no audit/recount controls:

DIEBOLD: Until recently, headed by Wally O'Dell, a Bush-Cheney campaign chair and major fundraiser (a Bush "Pioneer," right up there with Ken Lay), who promised in writing to "deliver Ohio's electoral votes to Bush-Cheney in 2004"; and

ES&S: A spinoff of Diebold (similar computer architecture), initially funded by rightwing billionaire Howard Ahmanson, who also gave one million dollars to the extremist 'christian' Chalcedon Foundation (which touts the death penalty for homosexuals, among other things). Diebold and ES&S have an incestuous relationship; they are run by two brothers, Bob and Todd Urosevich.

These are the people who "counted" 80% of the nation's votes in 2004, under a veil of corporate secrecy. They are even more entrenched now. Sequoia, the third major election theft player, hired Republican former CA Sec of State Bill Jones, and his chief aide Alfie Charles, to peddle their secretly programmed voting machines--an egregious example of corrupt 'revolving door' employment.

DO NOT VOTE ON ELECTION THEFT MACHINES! VOTE BY ABSENTEE BALLOT! FLOOD THESE CORRUPT ELECTION OFFICIALS WITH MOUNTAINS OF PAPER AB VOTES! FORCE REFORM *NOW*--BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE FOR OUR DEMOCRACY!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Doctor_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 09:56 AM
Response to Original message
15. A drop in the bucket compared to purging registered Dems
from the voter rolls.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
auburngrad82 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 10:06 AM
Response to Reply #15
18. Agreed, we also need to work on verifying that people are registered
before they get to the polling booth. If people go early and vote early, once their vote is cast it doesn't matter if the GOP purges the voter rolls. And if you've been purged, you can reregister if you go early. Everyone should make sure they still have the right to vote.



Liberal bumper stickers
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Sooner75 Donating Member (193 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 10:20 AM
Response to Original message
20. excellent point here
As an election judge in 2004, I saw Kerry win in my Arlington, TX, polling place but, with the early voters added in, Dubya won.

In Ohio, there were supposed to be too few voting machines in heavily Democratic areas, and, I believe, the weather was very rainy on Election Day as well. All of that becomes less and less significant if people vote well in advance of Election Day.

I believe that I heard that Oregon has EVERYONE voting by mail. Maybe we all oughta look at that.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
windbreeze Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-23-06 11:40 AM
Response to Reply #20
23. in my co in Wash...we vote entirely absentee.....and I HATE IT!!
what guarantees me, that my vote is counted, that it doesn't end up in a garbage can, that it's even delivered, or that a non-partisan stranger is counting it correctly?

Why and how can voting officials ignore the specified, and I would think, LEGAL and BINDING return date they decided upon and had stamped on a ballot? It is stated, that if we do NOT return that ballot, by/on THAT stamped date, our vote would not count...yet weeks later, we were notified, via newspaper + a separate notice in our PO boxes, that we could still return those ballots, because the vote was being held open....

So why would I believe it's an any more honest way to vote than going to a polling venue and using a paper ballot...(like we did up to and including the last prez. election)

From what I hear, it was the Democrats in this state that pushed voting absentee...I want to feel as though I physically MADE the effort to go vote....I hate receiving my ballot a week or so before...and then having to remember to return them on ONE particular date only..I am retired, and I find it's easy to lose track of what the date is...

I hate being forced to vote absentee...period!!...it takes the thrill out of going to vote, and turns it into chopped liver...
windbreeze
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Thu Apr 25th 2024, 04:59 PM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC