Which candidate's campaign would provide the most bang for the buck?

[lebkuchen]

I received a bonus at work and have used part of it to donate to all of the candidates below, and got a friend to match me. I have some money left. Who should get it?

If that person isn't on the list, please post.

[Bretttido]

1. Ned Lamont, CT

[lebkuchen]

3. We donated to Lamont in his run against Lieberman

and haven't donated to him since. I'm going to replace Angelides with Lamont on the poll, even though I can't stand Schwartznegger.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

8. I suspect Ned Lamont is actually a fairly inefficient investment

in terms of "probability of swinging a seat per dollar spent".

Firstly, he has a lot of money of his own, I believe. As such, a dollar will be a lower proportional increase in his finances than it would be given to someone who doesn't as yet have as much to spend. Note that I'm far from certain about this one, though - before you take my word on it that Lamont has more to spend than many other Dem candidates you should probably try and verify it.

Secondly, his chances of winning are quite a bit less than 50%. Given the law of diminishing returns, the places where it makes most sense to send more resources are the most evenly balanced races - it makes less sense to spend money on someone who's likely to win even if you don't, or on someone who is unlikely to win even if you do. Lamont is far from out of it, but there are a good many closer races.

Thirdly, if Lamont doesn't win, the winner will be Lieberman, who will almost certainly caucus with the Dems. Lieberman is hated far more than most Republicans by DUers for obvious reasons, but from the purely pragmatic standpoint of making America a better place, defeating him will do considerably less good than defeating any of them.

So, in summary, the best places to donate are races where a Democrat without much money is in a knife-edge race with a conservative Republican.

[Bretttido]

10. A Ned Lamont win is a much bigger BANG than any of those other wins IMHO

It may cost a few more bucks, but whoa!! that's a lot of bang!! :nuke:

[Donald Ian Rankin]

11. I don't entirely agree.

I think that it's only about half as much bang if you defeat someone who'll probably caucus with the Democrats anyhow as if you defeat a genuine Republican.

[Bretttido]

14. Yes, but we'll show the grassroots that we have the power to unseat

a three-term senator. His devotion to maintaining power will be trumped by true democracy. This race isn't about gaining a seat in the Senate, it is about showing the people who have been stuck in DC for decades that THE PEOPLE are the ones that put them in power, and we will take them out when we don't approve.

[Tiggeroshii]

2. Webb and Ford are on the top of my list.

I voted for Webb there, and Webb is withing thrashing distance, Ford is a little bit further away than Webb and not much but Tester in Montana is in comparatively good shape, but still very compettive with Burns now that people have forgotten about his controversial contributions contributions already.

so here's the top 5 candidates to donate to, with 1 being the most bang for the buck, and 5 being the least.

1. James Webb, US Senate candidate in VA(latest polling shows Webb behind only 3 points)
2. Harold Ford, US Senate Candidate in TN -lates poll shows Ford behind 6 points of his Republican rival.
3. Claire McCaskill, US Senate candidate in Missouri(latest polling shows Talent with a very slight lead, statistical tie in looking at most recent polls)
4. Jon Tester, US Senate candidate in Montana -most polls showed Teser leading consistently for a while. Newer polls show a tie.
5. Sherrod Brown, US Senate candidate in Ohio- been ahead in most polls, but some have stil shown him behind 7 points, while others give him a 10 point lead.

All of these candidates can win if we all donate to them and volunteer for them as much as possible...

[Bucky]

4. Tester in Montana's the one to watch. Montana is the stealth purple state

Montana could be the new Hawaii

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Dina Titus

Yeah, I'm biased. I don't want 8 more years of GOP governing this state, especially if it's a boob like Jim Gibbons.

Titus in the underdog but she has a chance and needs cash. Here's a section from Monday's Las Vegas Gleaner, the local progressive blog: http://www.lasvegasgleaner.com/las_vegas_gleaner/2006/08/porter_terrifie.html

"Jim Gibbons and Dina Titus were also invited to Monday's forum. Titus was, well, magnificent, gliding through issues ranging from the structural constraints on the state's budget process to the driver's license requirements for immigrants to classroom-administration funding ratios, with a charm wholly improbable to the subject matter. She turned her position on appointing public utility commissioners into an applause line, fergawdsake. Which is to say when she's on her game, as she was Monday, she is easily the best politician on the stump in Nevada (and whoever holds the rank as distant second, it isn't Jim Gibbons)."

[lebkuchen]

7. Gibbons didn't even bother to show up~

AWOL in the debate!

And what about Jon Porter? What an ass.

Porter defended Rumsfeld, saying he is "doing the best he can." With what he has to work with? With a tragically miserable situation that he played a significant role in starting? Considering that every decision he has made up to this point has been disastrously wrong? Porter didn't elaborate.

Tessa Hafen may need a boost, too?

Thanks for the heads up.

[Awsi Dooger]

15. Gibbons wants no part of debating Titus

He'll play hide and seek just like the primaries. She wants six debates but he'll no doubt agree to three or less. Then he'll do little more in those debates than try to avoid a major gaffe and apply the term liberal Democrat to Titus as often as possible. Sadly, in a state with a makeup like this it may be enough.

Yes, Tessa Hafen is another good candidate who could use a boost. Everyone knows Jon Porter is a glorified paste board but he stays out of the way and relies on incumbency and the makeup of his district. It's a 50/50 district in registration but seems to vote right of that. Maybe the indies there lean right, or it could be the challengers Porter has faced so far have been flawed, which is not the case with Hafen. She is very young but comes across excellent whenever I've seen her.

[lebkuchen]

17. It's sad that voters are such a poor judge of a candidate's suitability

No wonder Bush has gotten away with so much under their "watch."

I'll throw some money NV's way.

[UDenver20]

6. VA/TN - that's where its at... n/t

[guidod]

9. Phil Angelides needs all

the help he can get, he's behind in the polls. California can't take 4 more years of Arnold the union hater.

[NCarolinawoman]

12. Webb is surging. People just need to get to know him. n/t

[librarycard]

13. People are getting to know Webb by default.

"He can't be a worse racist than George Allen."

[undeterred]

16. Bryan Kennedy, in WI-5, running against Sensenbrenner

Wonderful candidate, 2nd run against Sensenbrenner, whose re-elect numbers are just under 50%.
He spends money carefully. Send it in~!

:bounce: :kick:

[lebkuchen]

18. ActBlue has been keeping track of new contributors

setting goals for so many per week. I like to see the tight organization.

http://www.actblue.com/page/netrootscandidates?refcode=DKosAugustPush

[ClassWarrior]

19. Bryan Kennedy, running to defeat F. Jim Sensenbrenner!!

(see below)

NGU.