AP: New poll shows Lieberman leading Lamont

[Eugene]

Posted on Thu, Aug. 17, 2006

New poll shows Lieberman leading Lamont
SUSAN HAIGH
Associated Press

HARTFORD, Conn. - Ned Lamont, whose anti-war campaign rattled the political
landscape by toppling Sen. Joe Lieberman in Connecticut's Democratic primary,
is gaining support among voters - but Lieberman still has an edge, according
to a poll released Thursday.

The Quinnipiac University poll has Lieberman leading Lamont among registered
voters 49 percent to 38 percent. Republican Alan Schlesinger gets support
from 4 percent. Among likely voters, Lieberman was supported by 53 percent,
compared to Lamont's 41 percent and Schlesinger's 4 percent.

-snip-

Lieberman's advantage in the general election comes from broad support
among unaffiliated and Republican voters. Fifty-three percent of likely voters
polled said he deserves to be re-elected, and nearly half doubted that Lamont,
a political novice who founded a company that wires college campuses for cable
television, has enough experience to be senator.

-snip-

Lamont, however, is improving since a July 20 Quinnipiac poll. In that survey
of registered voters, he trailed Lieberman 51 percent to 27 percent with
Schlesinger getting 9 percent. The latest poll quizzed both registered voters
and voters likely to cast ballots; the July 20 poll only questioned registered
voters.

-snip-

Full article: http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/breaking_news/15294750.htm

[Lerkfish]

1. bizarre. there's no logical reason for that to be true

Lieberman is a turncoat traitor, whose true allegiance is clear. I can't imagine there are enough democrats to vote for him. Any dem who votes for him should have their heads examined.

[Cobalt Violet]

11. He gets the repuke vote.

[Shrek]

19. Dems don't appear to be the problem

Democrats prefer Lamont by a 2-1 margin. Lieberman's support comes from elsewhere.

In this latest survey, Lieberman leads 75 - 13 - 10 percent among likely Republican voters, and 58 - 36 - 3 percent among likely independent voters, while likely Democratic voters back Lamont 63 - 35 percent. Two percent are undecided, but 28 percent of those who name a candidate might change their mind before Election Day.

[enough already]

56. Dems ARE the problem

Only leading 2-1 among Dems is a fucking joke. EVERY LAST DEM should be voting for Ned and there need to be consequences for those that don't. This just can't be happening.

[Kolesar]

77. Lieberman owns the "don't question Israel" Dems

...and republicans for that matter.

[Snivi Yllom]

26. it's not the Dems, it's the Republicans

Schlesinger is a complete non-factor in the race. If Lieberman pulls even 1/3 of the Dem vote, it will be very hard for Lamont to win.

How many GOP voters and independent will pull the lever for Lamont? My best guess is not enough

[Lerkfish]

33. I guess my point is, he shouldn't pull one third of dems at all.

no dem should vote for him, period, IMHO.

[Snivi Yllom]

39. Lieberman's approval ratings in CT are pretty good

55-40 among likely voters

58-35 among independents

amazingly 75-20 among republicans

38-57 among democrats, not great, but I don't forsee Lieberman losing more than 2/3 of the demnocrat vote

Lamont is going to have to change the game

[w4rma]

69. LIEberman is *right now* losing 2/3's of the DemocratIC vote. (nt)

[fuzzyball]

63. I am guessing Lieberman's 90% liberal voting record is

good enough for those democrats voting for him in GE.

[fooj]

71. Actually, he has a 50% Dem voting record...

He's not very good with FACTS.

[Javaman]

40. Exactly, notice how moron* and snowjob haven't endorsed

the repuke running in the election? because they want their puppet boy to win.

joe is becoming the new zell. They had to find someone since zell shed his scales.

[fuzzyball]

62. 48% of democrats voted Lieberman in primary + 80-90% of repubs

could make these numbers believable.

[patricia92243]

2. Just think -if Lamont got as much as 1/2 the media coverage that the loser

gets what his numbers would be. They would be much, much higher than the loser's ever thought about being. Oh well, the MSM picks our leaders for us - as usual.

[no_hypocrisy]

3. Like or not, Lieberman will win in November if the combined numbers

of independent voters and republicans are larger than the democrats. Republican party is pouring money into Lieberman's campaign very likely.

[ShortnFiery]

7. Sorry, IMO it pure horse shit that Lieberman will win. NO he will NOT!

The base is angry beyond words and those who don't appreciate the DINOs who are breaking ranks (traitors) will give these turn-coats an assured backlash in the form of THEIR loss in the next Democratic Primary.

I don't think that these polls realize how we will mobilize our voting block come November.

The gloves are off! :grr:

[vi5]

9. No. Basic math is nothing but repub propaganda...

I don't particularly care if the number of independents, republicans and democrats who say they will vote for Joe is potentially more than the number of independents, republicans, and democrats who say they will vote for Lamont. Facts mean nothing and basic electoral math has clearly been hijacked by Diebold.

[paulk]

48. basic math is basic math

And Connecticut doesn't use electronic voting.

[vi5]

58. Pssst....

I was being sarcastic.

[KaptBunnyPants]

70. Connecticut strongly opposes Bush and the war.

Give the people a chance; with Lieberman acting and sounding more like Cheney every day, I doubt that he will prevail in the end. It's 2 months out, and the gap has closed considerably since the last Q poll came out. Lieberman is simply out of the mainstream of his state, how is he going to convince the anti-war independents that pulling out of Iraq is appeasement of terrorists? That is the issue he has decided to run on, after all.

[AntiFascist]

73. I was wondering, what about anti-war Republicans particularly...

in Connecticut? Something doesn't seem right with the poll results.

[Awsi Dooger]

4. That's more in line with what I expected

Late on primary night I posted the Lieberman poll lead would be high single digits.

It's simply a much more difficult task than the primary for Lamont since Schlesinger is a non-factor and the Republicans and right leaning independents are going to choose Lieberman over Lamont by massive margin.

It has nothing to do with momentum or money. It's basic preference among a huge block of voters who Lamont has basically no control over. I can't see much of a change in the dynamic of this race unless Schlesinger somehow quadruples his support. He's actually going in reverse.

[Zynx]

18. If Lamont can get around 80% support among Democrats by the end

of the election, and with Joe's trashing of the Democratic Party, that's possible. He would just need to gain some among Independents to make it work then.

[ShortnFiery]

5. Propaganda - Stay Strong Fellow Lamont Supporters!

After Lamont wins Connecticut, let's go after the traitors who failed to support The Democratic Nominee in favor of THAT Independent Traitor, one each, Joe Lieberman?

They're all sweating bullets, having the polls LIE and the dirty tricks will keep on coming. However, none of these contortions will stop the massive rush to the polls to vote for a TRUE BLUE DEMOCRAT, Ned Lamont. :applause:

[Warren Stupidity]

6. Lieberman is a terrible campaigner.

Lamont can turn those numbers around. He will get the full financial and resource backing of the DSCC and Joe will get nothing. Be patient.

[larrysh]

10. Get nothing?

Lieberman has his own hard-core supporters, a slice of Independent voters, and a huge share of Republican votes. Plus, national name recognition, the tacit support of the Republican party, and probably
Republican $$$ being funneled thru Democrat sources. I wouldn't call that nothing.....regardless of my personal feelings for the guy.....

[endarkenment]

24. Please document the Republican funding

That should end his campaign right there.

[Hawkeye-X]

60. Backing of RSC

Rethuglican Senate Committee.

That should end his career, dead in the dirt.

Hawkeye-X

[MoonRiver]

8. If Lieberman's dirty tactics help him "win",

the Rat Bastard will severely fracture the Dem Party. I can't even imagine the rage that CT Dems in particularly will feel toward this turncoat traitor if his desperate power grab succeeds. Holy Joe qualifies hands down as the greatest DIVIDER of them all.
:mad::puke::mad:

[mmonk]

12. This is a dangerous race for the democratic party

with Lieberman running as an independent. If it gets very fierce with Lieberman using his republican talking points, it will give rise to even more Green challenges and democratic voter disenfranchisement in its base.

[Sherman A1]

13. I respectfully disagree

I am not really pleased with Lieberman running as an independent, but that is certainly his right to do so, just as it was Lamont's right to run against him in the primary. More participation I would think would be better, yes, there will be some odd results along the way and things we may not like, but democracy isn't always tidy.

[mmonk]

15. Mark my words and this thread.

[Sherman A1]

16. We will find out in November

I suppose.

[mmonk]

17. If Lieberman wins, there will inevitably be a problem.

The only possibility of something different is if the national climate will change.

[Sherman A1]

21. There may indeed be problems

there are huge problems now as we all know. I don't think one race even with the Senate possibly being in play, will turn the world upside down. I have to respect the voters of the state, it is their choice and they, as well as we will live with the results.

[mmonk]

22. While its true we have to live with the results,

the false framing of the issues, the resistance to exposure of truth, and more of a move towards an anti-democratic society will still have life.

[ShortnFiery]

14. Especially IF Lieberman wins, we need to Take Out all defectors to

The Democratic Party in THEIR next primaries! Rage? Yeah, that DINO Senator Landreu (LA) is gonna feel the wrath of many Ragin' Cagins. :grr:

Vote out Incumbents for Democracy
http://voidnow.org/

"Corruption" is an understatement when considering all these DEFECTIONS ... has anyone recovered from the fact that Barbara Boxer felt obligated & actually FOLLOWED-THROUGH with campaigning for Holy Joe? Thank goodness that she stood TRUE after the Primary Results.

[Snivi Yllom]

27. this is going to be a told you so race

it's going to be expensive

it's going to be ugly

it's not going to lead to the desired result many are vocalizing

[welshTerrier2]

20. Lieberman leads 75%-13% among likely Republican voters

Lieberman isn't "bi-partisan" as he likes to say, he's the embodiment of one-party government ...

[skipos]

23. But there is the problem for Lamont

I think he will be virtually impossible for him to win unless there is a new Republican in the race.

[paulk]

50. how so?

He'll still have to get a third of the Democratic vote to win. And the majority of the independents, who outnumber either party in CT. Having to get significant support from such a wide political spectrum would seem to be the "embodiment" of bi - partisanship...

[Snivi Yllom]

25. Lieberman is going to get the vast majority of Republican votes

With the Republican candidate totally out of the race, I do not see Lamont pulling this out.

Lamont has to now run as a moderate.

[KKKarl is an idiot]

28. I agree

Lamont needs to bring in the independent vote & more of the democratic vote. So the only path to take is showing himself as being more of a moderate.

[fuzzyball]

65. Don't think Lamont can suddenly morph into a moderate/centrist after

running in the primary as a full throttle progressive/liberal.
All Lieberman has to do then is run side by side video clips
of Lamont talking opposite sides of issues.

Nope, the only chance Lamont has to win is to fire up the
hard core base and turn them out 100% in November to the polls.

[TheModernTerrorist]

75. running as a moderate won't necessarily win

What people want is a candidate that sticks to their convictions, that is aggressive, and shows that they have what it takes to get the job done. We're not talking about issues that are out of the mainstream, we're talking about things like healthcare for all of our citizens, we're talking about a REAL strategy in Iraq that doesn't involve us making dozens of permanent bases or bolstering terrorist support by our mere presence, we're talking about education that actually helps our children compete in a global market, and fair economic policies. I would say that those are pretty moderate ideas, eh? :)

[NCarolinawoman]

32. The press should stop defining Lamont as anti-war.

The Republicans (Rove) are using that term to mean '60s peacenik, anti-partiotic, anti security, etc.

I wish that Lamont could be described as being "anti-Iraq mess" versus Joe who is "pro-Iraq mess".
I would substitute the word "debacle" for" mess" but maybe some people can only understand the simpler word.

I just think the term "anti-war" has to be dropped to attract the more conservative crowd.

[bettyellen]

80. that's the silliest thing i've ever heard. being anti-war IS moderate

these days.
what DLC style liberal bashing self hating clap trap. i'm sure i don;t even want to know what you think moderate is.

[SaveElmer]

29. Lamont is gonna have to run to the middle on some issues...

Or emphasize those issues where he already has a moderate message...

He is clearly not convincing moderate Connecticut independents yet...

There is still time, but he has to shift the perception of him as simply an "anti-war" candidate. That is not gonna carry him in November!

[mmonk]

36. What issues is he not the middle on?

I see it as striking down all the false framing.

[NYCGirl]

30. Lieberman's lead consists of 75% CT Republican likely voters!

http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2006/08/17/lieberman/index.html

GOP voters keep Lieberman in the lead

Thanks to overwhelming support from Connecticut Republicans, Joseph Lieberman comes out on top of a new Quinnipiac University poll out today.

Among likely voters, Lieberman leads Democratic nominee Ned Lamont and Republican candidate Alan Schlesinger 53-41-4 percent. It seems that all those Republicans who aren't backing Schlesinger are standing side by side with Lieberman instead. Lieberman, elected three times as a Democratic senator, gets the support of 75 percent of the likely-voting Republicans in Quinnipiac's poll.

"Sen. Lieberman's support among Republicans is nothing short of amazing," said Quinnipiac poll director Douglas Schwartz. "It more than offsets what he has lost among Democrats. As long as Lieberman maintains this kind of support among Republicans, while holding onto a significant number of Democratic votes, the veteran senator will be hard to beat."

That explains why Lamont is working hard to expand his base of support: In an Op-Ed piece in the Wall Street Journal this week -- not exactly required reading for the "angry left" -- Lamont argued that his " career in business" shaped his outlook and prepared him well to serve in the Senate.

Is there time for Lamont to overtake Lieberman? Sure. The November vote is nearly three months away. As CQ Politics noted the other day, only 9 percent of Connecticut voters had heard enough about Lamont to state an opinion about him three months before he beat Lieberman in the Democratic primary. And indeed, Lamont has already made up quite a bit of ground in the three-way race. In Quinnipiac's July poll, Lieberman led Lamont by 24 points in the three-way matchup with Schlesinger. With today's poll, Lamont has cut that lead in half.

[newsguyatl]

31. but isn't ct a democratic state?

even IF lieberwhore gets all the repuke votes, why is he still leading in a democratic state?

[politmuse1]

37. Because the Democratic vote gets split up

LIeberman is drawing on two constituencies: almost the entire GOP vote, plus a minority of the Democratic vote who's loyal to the incumbent, not because of his policies, but because he's been there a long time and he's "our guy" sort of thing. That's why it's so tough to beat an incumbent. They always have a loyal base.

That plus the repugs will make it impossible for Lamont to win unless he runs a very different kind of campaign. No politics as usual. Lieberman played dirty and Lamont has no choice but to respond in kind and hit hard. Not on the war issue, but on the treachery of it all.

You lose, you get out of the way. It's poor sportsmanship and a slap in the face of your voters to continue running when you were defeated. That's why you have primaries. Your party decide and you accept the verdict. What if every primary loser would start running as an independent?

He should not be allowed to get away with such an abomination. Lamont needs to hit him over the head with this or else forget about it.

[Shrek]

34. Why the increase in Lamont's negatives?

He hasn't made any gaffes that I know of.

:shrug:

[mmonk]

35. He's fighting both the republicans

and the DLC dems.

[GOTV]

43. Perhaps it's a change in polling...

... for the primary, you only need to poll Democrats. Post primary, you poll everyone. So the results can change.

[Jai4WKC08]

49. Only the "haven't heard enough" has changed significantly

The ratio of favorable to unfavorable is pretty much holding steady.

Lamont started out as vitually unknown, even as late as May. But as more and more people are hearing about him, slightly more are developing an unfavorable opinion. That's not good, and I'm fairly certain it's because of the way he's being defined by the corporate media ("al Qaeda's candidate"?!) He's got to break thru that, and quickly, because first impressions are the most lasting.

It should help that Edwards will be out there campaigning (today, isn't it?), and Wes Clark is scheduled very soon, assuming either one gets some local media coverage.

[enough already]

57. The racist scumbag pukes beat him up pretty good on election night

over being on stage with Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton. Makes you wonder if that got any traction.

[fuzzyball]

66. I bet that did not go over well with the Jewish voters n/t

[theanarch]

59. gee, i wonder if identifying Lamont as a "businessman"...

...had anything to do with the results...

[Bjorn Against]

61. Very good point

The wording of a question can make a huge impact in the results, and identifying Ned Lamont as a businessman does carry a certain influence.

I studied polling and I currently work for a survey research company, I can assure everyone that wording does make a big difference in the results. I would be willing to bet that if you polled without the word businessman the results would be different.

[fuzzyball]

67. Not only a businessman but a "multi-millionaire" businessman who

inherited a huge fortune is how the media is labelling Lamont.

[madfloridian]

38. If CT wants Lieberman, no matter what, it is their choice.

It is their decision. Maybe CT is really more of a red state than we thought.

But after all, this is about choices.

[Lerkfish]

41. but are they honest informed choices or manipulated choices?

[madfloridian]

42. Probably manipulated, but still their choice.

I see a pattern here at DU...like OH MY see what happens when you vote out incumbents? Like shame on people for voting their choice.

I think the Lieberman thing will take care of itself. I think the Republicans, though they express support verbally, are not likely to give him a lot of committees and goodies.

This is very serious, what is going on. Lieberman and those who support him are advocating the idea that the votes of the people in a primary don't count.

[Freddie Stubbs]

44. Why would Lieberman give up his current Democrat committee assignments?

He is being allowed to keep them now while he is running against the Democratic nominee. Do you think he would be kicked out of the Democratic caucus after he is reelected?

[madfloridian]

45. I don't think he will be allowed to keep them as GOP support grows.

I have no proof.

[Freddie Stubbs]

52. So far no Democratic Senator has gone on record suggesting that

this is a possibility.

[onenote]

53. " I have no proof"

Kinda says it all right there.

[Larkspur]

76. CT has a Repuke gov and 3/5 Republican Congresscritters

So based on that, CT tends to be red, but the state legislature is very Democratic, so I guess we're kind of purple.

[kentuck]

46. This poll assumes Lieberman gets 90% of the Republican voters??

Which would calculate out to about 36% of the total Republican voters. And 17% of his votes would come from Democratic voters, meaning he is receiving less than one third of all Democratic voters. That poll is not good news for Lieberman, imo...

[onenote]

54. independents are the key

[AzDar]

47. At this point, Lieberman is more Republican than their actual candidate..

He's a slimy little Bush-kisser, who deserves NO respect from Dem politicians, or organizations.
It's ON, Joe-hole.

[SteppingRazor]

51. Lamont only behind by 12 points is actually pretty good...

He has trailed by much more than that in many three-way-race polls leading up to the primary and the days rights afterward. I imagine this margin will shrink as more people learn about Lamont.

[thatsrightimirish]

55. Quinnipac?

Didn't one of their polls show that on August 3rd Lamont was winning the primary by 13 points, and then all of a sudden 4 days later he was only winning by 7 points? The point is Quinnipac has been all over the place on this race and if I remember, many other races. I think that rasmussen is much more accurate. But Lamont is behind in that to but only by 6 points.

[snowbear]

64. But Quinnipiac University isn't a R-polling site like Rasmussen..

And they rated super high on some site that rated pollsters during the Kerry campaign.

Someone shared a study of national pollsters and whether they were partisan to the left or right, and how accurate they usually are.

Quinnipiac University actually had a stellar rating.

I don't remember where Rasmussen was on the list, but the article stated that they (as most of John Q. Public already knows) lean heavily to the right.

Scott Rasmussen is as rightie-right as you can get.

I agree that it's the R's who are giving Lieberman the boost right now. But I think Lamont will pull it out in the end!

[LaPera]

68. This has to be a major political focus for the DNC....Have no hope

that the fucking DLC will help...They love corporate Bush and his mole, republican Lieberman...If Lieberman wins at least he's gone from the Democratic party forever, because we know where he stands...

So where's the loss? Liberman as a shill, a mole in the Dem party, or Lieberman as an Indy doing the same?

The mole, the shill Lieberman, will finally be gone from shitting on us Dem's from the inside.

He won't have Dem inside privy any longer, and we know where he stands on every issue... simply to help the BushCo fascist - and he was going to continue to stab us in the back as a "Dem" anyway.

The shill is gone... let's get the rest of them...Feinstein is a good start!

Support Ned Lamont!

[Canuckistanian]

72. And Rove smiled....

I could see this a mile off. Extreme Joe worship coupled with Lamont demonization.

Not to mention the Schlesinger shiv in the back.

The fix is in. This is going to be nasty.

Ned's going to have an uphill battle.

[bvar22]

74. The STORY is NOT that Loserman ia ahead in the polls!

The REAL story is that in ONE Month, Lamont has cut Loserman's lead from 24 points to just 11 points.

The TRUE Story is that Loserman is Fading FAST!
Lamont will win!


The Democratic Party is a BIG TENT, but there is NO ROOM for those
who advance the agenda of THE RICH (Corporate Owners) at the EXPENSE of LABOR and the POOR.

:dem:

[opihimoimoi]

78. Joe has the SMELL of the PUBS all over his Pathetic Body...EEE eeeeeewwwww

[depakid]

79. Yeah well- "polls" also showed Lamont WAY behind

for most of this race and the closet republicans here- and elsewhere used to crow about that all of the time.

Yet Lamont won handily.

Also- framing Lamont's victory as "anti-war" (as opposed to taking into account the many other factors and ways that Lieberman and the closet republicans rountinely betray us all) plays right into their hands.

When will people learn?

[Spirochete]

81. I just wonder

if, come election time, the Repugs, having no candidate that they really agree with - only Lieberman and the card cheat - will just say "fuck it" and stay home, allowing the Dems to oust Joe AND the governor....