MI Senate: Stabenow (D) 49% Bouchard (R) 44% (Rasmussen)

[skipos]

August 16 , 2006

Fresh from an August 8 Senate primary election that he won more handily than expected, Republican Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard is now just five points shy of the level of support attracted by Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow. Stabenow leads 49% to 44% (see crosstabs).

Like other GOP contenders in Michigan, for most of the year Bouchard lagged behind the incumbent by double digits. And the Senator, by maintaining at least a 50% level of support, had seemed to enjoy at least marginally greater job security than the Governor. Senator Stabenow's lead did decline as the year progressed, but not drastically until now.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/August%202006/michiganSenate.htm

[villager]

1. Michiganers -- any clue why this race is so tight?

n/t

[JoshDem]

2. Probably the Economy

Not a Michiganite but Rasmussen thinks Stabenow getting blamed for the economy as well as govenor.

Unfortunately seems like we may have to add this one to the Senate seats in play.

[noonwitch]

3. It's tight because Michigan is a divided state

The southeastern counties are blue-Wayne (Detroit) and Washtenaw (Ann Arbor) in particular. Oakland and Macomb are large counties. Oakland has a lot of fiscal conservatives who are socially liberal, thus, swing voters. Macomb is split-the southern part is blue, the northern part, red.

Ingham County is blue, Kalamazoo is swing. Kent and most of the rest of the state votes republican. The majority of the population lives in the 3 southeastern counties, though.

Gov. Granholm won by a very small majority in 2002. Before that, we had 12 years with a republican governor. Lots of Michigan voters voted for both former Gov. Engler and for President Clinton. Stabenow won in 2000 by a handful of votes. The man she replaced (Spence Abrams) was a truly awful senator who only served one term.

The only dem who wins overwhelmingly in state-wide elections (since the retirement of Frank Kelly, that is) is Carl Levin. He is well-liked by all except the extreme right.

It's also tight because Bouchard is from one of those swing counties and is liked as the Sheriff. He also is running a very clever and funny ad right now-it's not an attack on anyone else, but it features his daughter talking about how this isn't one of those ads where the candidate's kid is endorsing her dad. She goes on to talk about various L&E policies he had-she said that's okay for a Sheriff, but for a dad? It ends with Bouchard sitting between his daughter and her date, saying "Isn't this fun". It's one of the best political ads I've ever seen.

On top of that, Bouchard is not a bad or mean guy by nature. If the dems were running someone corrupt or awful instead of Stabenow, I'd vote for him.

[Name removed]

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