SurveyUSA Missouri Senate Poll: McCaskill 47, Talent 46

[Awsi Dooger]

Classic gender gap. McCaskill leads among women, 52-41. Talent takes the men, 51-42.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=97abc744-334b-4cec-bb1e-ef06ebfe25e7

Let me demonstrate how the numbers in these poll crosstabs can be bizarre and meaningless, among the groups with very low percentages of the sample. Look at the Hispanics category in the link above, supposedly 71-29 in favor of Talent. That is ridiculous, similar to the SurveyUSA poll in Ohio, which gave DeWine and Blackwell a lead of 40+ percent among Hispanics. Several of us questioned it when that Ohio poll was posted.

OK, now try this. Go to the left of that link, in the black column, and change the second pulldown tab from "Show Percentages" to "Show Counts (Frequencies)." I tried to link it directly but the link defaults to "Show Percentages."

See what I'm referring to? The Hispanic sample is a goddamned 4 people, 3 in favor of Talent and 1 for McCaskill. Likewise, when you see Talent with 19% among blacks and that seems high, look at the sample there, 28-7, like a football score. So just a couple of people deviating from normal opinion for their demographic can dramatically change the crosstab percentages.

[...of J.Temperance]

1. McCaskill should win

Jim Talent only beat Jean Carnahan by 1%....so on the face of it, Claire McCaskill should be able to beat Jim Talent, Talent's support is a mile wide and an inch deep.

[saltpoint]

2. Go, Claire. A lot of us hereabouts will be rooting for you loud & strong.

[BOSSHOG]

3. I wish we had a competitive race in Mississippi

lotts opponent, State Rep Erik Fleming barely has a pulse in the polls.

[...of J.Temperance]

4. I wish that Gene Taylor would have challenged Trent Lott

Gene Taylor would have had a good shot I think.

[ikojo]

5. Talent has been showing ads that hightlight his

alleged bi partisanship. The ad will talk about a problem and how Talent worked with a Democrat to address that problem.

BULLSH*T! Talent is one of the most partisan pugs in the Senate!

[ERF]

6. Looks like a tie. Perfect opportunity for more fraud.