Where are our best chances to pick up 15 House seats & 6 in the Senate?

[David Zephyr]

Anyone here at the DU want to discuss our best chances to regain the House or the Senate?

Where are our best opportunities and why?

I keep hearing we have a good chance for the House, but less so with regards to the Senate, but where are those weak districts and states for the Senate?

I think Lampson will take Delay's seat in the Sugarland/Pasadena district in Houston.

It appears that Santorum is a goner in PA.

But where else are our best chances?

Ohio seems promising, but where there?

[salinen]

1. Missouri, Montana,

Ohio, Rhode Island senate seats.

[David Zephyr]

4. Thanks. I agree that it looks good for Sherrod Brown. Why the others?

What's happening in Missouri, Montana and Rhode Island? Are there any recent polls there?

And thanks for your helpful post, salinen.

[salinen]

12. Chaffee's in trouble

Talent in Missouri is takable, and Burns in Montana.

[David Zephyr]

17. Well, this story about Burns wasn't his best "press", was it?

Senator Apologizes To Firefighters
After Confronting Them At Airport And Criticizing Their Performance

AP) Sen. Conrad Burns, who is facing a tough re-election challenge this fall, confronted members of a Virginia firefighting team headed home after battling a blaze in southern Montana and criticized their work on the fire, a state official says in a report.

Paula Rosenthal, a state Department of Natural Resources and Conservation employee, wrote that members of the "Hotshot" crew said the Montana Republican confronted them in the Billings, Mont., airport on Sunday while they were awaiting a flight and told them they had done a "poor job" on the fire and should have listened to the concerns of area ranchers.


http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/07/28/politics/main1844207.shtml

[NewJeffCT]

2. 3 decent chances in Connecticut

All are house seats:

Diane Farrell came close to beating Chris Shays 2 years ago, and has honed her message and improved (from what I can tell when I've heard her on radio)

Joe Courtney has a pretty decent chance of beating Rob Simmons. simmons has won 2 close races in a light blue district.

Chris Murphy has an okay chance to beat long-time incumbent Nancy Johnson.

[David Zephyr]

6. Sounds encouraging, NewJeffCT.

I want to win back the Congress more than even the White House.

Thanks for posting some local and informed and encouraging news!

[NewJeffCT]

19. the Lieberman "dynamic" is a factor, though

and, it's too early to tell how it will play out.

[kohodog]

8. and Lieberman is fucking it up

His run as the Lieberman for CT party of one will really hurt Democratic challengers. Simmons would be toast, but now he can run on Joe's coat tails and eek out a win. Lieberman is doing incredible damage to the Country by running as a hybrid. He should accept the results of the voters.

[Greeby]

3. OH-18?

Now that Bob Ney is gone, I doubt his successor will get enough to come within stealing margin.

Shame about Studebaker dropping out. :(

That redistricting in Texas could provide a good bet (CDs 15, 21, 23, 25, 28), especially with Ciro Rodriguez getting back into running against Henry Bonilla

[David Zephyr]

7. Ney's seat! I would count that one for us, too. Thanks.

I forgot about Delay's redistricting in Texas which may kill us.

[Greeby]

11. I don't mean Delay's redistricting

I mean the redistricting that was ordered by the courts, because Delay's gerrymandering had violated the Voting Rights Act.

[Eric J in MN]

24. Support the Democrat, Zack Space.

http://www.zackspace.org/content/view/159/55/

[NoPasaran]

15. Until the re-re-redistricting Courage looked strong vs. Lamar Smith

But now Texas CD-21 is a much more republican district. Bonilla may be vulnerable, especially if Democrats can agree on a single candidate without much bloodshed. Some folks feel that Shane Sklar may upset Ron Paul in CD-14. Lampson picking up DeLay's abandoned seat in CD-22 against at least two repub write-in candidates looks like a good bet.

[snowbear]

5. I'm not sure about the house..

Good chance senate locations- Pennsyslania, Ohio, Montana, Rhode Island, Missouri, and Tennessee.

Some will disagree about Tennessee..

... but Harold Ford, Jr. is rockin' and rollin' there, and their ReTHUG candidate in the lead is a total asswipe.

[Dr.Phool]

9. Ohio's 3rd District

:spank: :spank: :spank: :spank: :spank: :spank:

[David Zephyr]

13. Tell me about the 3rd.

I don't understand what all is going on there.

[snowbear]

22. I think that's where that haggard MEAN witch resides...

isn't it?

Her >



"MEAN, MEAN NASTY JEAN"

[Dr.Phool]

25. No, that's the one where over the week-end

Stephanie Studebaker, a Dem who had a chance, and her husband got into a fight, and filed domestic violence charges against each other.

She withdrew today.

http://www.cleveland.com/weblogs/openers/index.ssf?/mtlogs/cleve_openers/archives/2006_08.html#172370


Sad.

[snowbear]

26. Well, hopefully the Rethug in Montana who also just got arrested..

...will also pull out of his race.

http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2006/08/08/news/mtregional/news07.txt

[Iwasthere]

10. And which ones have electronic machines?

[snowbear]

18. We won VA even with Diebolds...

So these days it's likely up to the states that want to manipulate the data.

Diebold has so many lawsuits against them right now, that they have to be running scared as far as stealing elections when one candidate is obviously far ahead in the polls.

Except for maybe Ohio.

I don't think ANYONE trusts Ohio and the idiot dude the have running for Governor.. the same guy who claimed he forgot he owned Diebold stock!

Maybe he'll rig his own election and let the other races run through without tampering with them (so the manipulating doesn't appear so obvious )

[OhioBlue]

28. the manipulation would be very obvious

the polls consistently show the Governor's race with the largest margin Strickland over blackwell (last poll i saw - Strickland was up 22 points) The other races, Senate, SOS, Treasurer, Auditor, etc. were all closer. I think Sherrod was up 8 points last I saw and I think the others were within the margin of error (except I can't remember the AG poll - Betty Montgomery has the best name recognition and much more $$ than the Dem, Marc Dann) My money is on a sweep of all State Executive offices with the exception of AG - only b/c Betty has been there forever and has lots of cash.

[bullimiami]

14. fair elections. no mass purges, no mass corrupt counting,

no criminally long lines.

in an honest election, dems win BIG.

[alfredo]

16. Ky 4th district race between Ken Lucas (D) and

Geoff Davis (R). Davis is a bush loyalist, even invited bush to a fundraiser. He recently praised bush's medicare perscription plan, even after complaints are mounting over the "donut hole" that is hurting seniors with high drug costs.

Lucas was Congressman and had decided to jump back in the race. He's doing fine. The Republican gov Ernie Fletcher has helped the Dems because of his corrupt administration. Davis being tied to Abramoff, Cunningham, and bush doesn't help either.

[David Zephyr]

20. Thanks for the report from Kentucky! Any recent polls there, alfredo?

:thumbsup:

[alfredo]

30. Haven't really checked any polls. In our town it is the local

races, state legislature, mayor, city council that has us busy. Our one national race is the 6th District. Ben Chandler (D) is not facing a challenger, so that frees us up to help the local races.

As soon as the 2006 races end we will start working on the 2007 governor's race. Some are thinking Ben Chandler might run. That will mean if he wins he will have to give up his seat, but then he can name his replacement. That could be one of many. It could be Crit Lewellan, Greg Stumbo, or Chris Frost a good friend of Chandler. Chris Frost is the candidate for the 88th Legislative district.

I would like to see Ernesto Scorsone or Mary Lou Marzian in Congress. Scorsone is an open gay man, is a damn good legislator, and has good Liberal stances. Mary Lou is a former officer of the Ky chapter of NOW. She is one of the most powerful women in the state and is a staunch ally of women and children. She is so popular that the Republicans have a tough time finding people to run against her.

Mary Lou Marzian


Ernesto Scorsone

[indygrl]

21. We have a good candidate

running against Hostetler in IN. (The congressman that was stopped at the airport with a gun. Also made news by saying abortions caused breast cancer.) He has voted for a raise every time and has gotten $31K in raises yet voted against the minimum wage increase. He runs as an evangelical, moral values man. He's already running nasty ads against Mike Ellsworth his dem opponent. Everything I've seen and heard about Ellsworth has sounded good.

[longship]

23. Some things from the analysts

Senate: Five we'll probably get:
Montana
Missouri
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island

That leaves one more for a majority. Everybody pretty much agrees that any more will have to come from these states with the best shot in TN.
Arizona
Nevada
Tennessee

The House? We're probably gonna get the majority back!

There are so many competitive seats that it would be impractical to list them all. Furthermore, as we get closer to election day the numbers are looking better and better for Dems. The fact is, if there is a credible Dem in the race, anything can happen. Hell, even Mean Jean Schmidt in Ohio is finding it tough going from an opponent who has no money!

Hot states for Dem House candidates:
Arizona
Colorado
Connecticut
Illinois
New York
Ohio
Texas

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

35. Exactly, the court ordered redistricting of Texas is a big help with

getting the house back

[JohMunich99]

37. Yikes, I didn't realize we were counting on NV being 1/3....

of the seats we pick up to put us over the top. All five of those Senate races will be tough. I'm not sure I would count on us getting all five. That's good analysis though. I hadn't seen everything laid out like that yet.

[David Zephyr]

46. Thanks a million, longship.

What a helpful post!:)

[Independent_Liberal]

27. Let's turn out as many voters as possible this time.

We need to win big. History is full of examples in which people fought against tremendous odds and came out victorious. Let's make this one of those moments.

Peace,

IL

:)

[snowbear]

29. Looks like R-John Sweeney (NY) could be in the unemployment line...

His opponent, Kirsten Gillibrand, sounds like she's kicking ass and taking names!

Go Kirsten!

New York (from "The Hill" www.hillnews.com)

New York's AFL-CIO endorsed Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand on Monday, giving her a dose of good news in her bid to unseat Rep. John Sweeney (R-N.Y.)

State Democrats crowed about the endorsement because Sweeney had been Gov. George Pataki's (R) labor commissioner and the union had endorsed Sweeney in previous races. But Gillibrand was dealt a setback last week when the Independence Party did not grant her a line on the ballot. Gillibrand and her allies believed they could score an early knockout against Sweeney if they had a spot on the ballot and forced a head-to-head match-up in the primary Sept. 12.

Adirondack News:
http://www.adirondackdailyenterprise.com/news/articles.asp?articleID=3542

[OhioBlue]

31. Ohio

Definitely Senate race, Sherrod Brown over Mike DeWine. Sherrod is currently polling better, but DeWine has tons of cash to spend on media buys... we absolutely cannot get complacent on this race. It is very, very winnable, but will take $$ and effort. www.sherrodbrown.com to volunteer or donate.

Best House chance (IMHO) is probably the 15th - Mary Jo Kilroy (D) against incumbent Deb Pryce (R)

Second best chance for a pick up is the 18th - Bob Ney's district. Zack Space is the Dem - running against, I guess, Joy Padgett - she's got good name recognition and will probably get lots of $$. Joy's a real treat - she accused Terry Anderson, former marine journalist in Vietnam and former hostage of being soft of terror... she's a bitch.

As far as other races - Ohio is so gerrymandered, but so disgusted with corruption, job loss, unconstitutional school funding, anything can happen. I don't know what will happen... races that are interesting to me (possibly competitive - I haven't seen polling)

the 2nd is Victoria Wulsin against the wicked witch Jean Schmidt

the 3rd.... doesn't look good

the 4th... Oxley is retiring, but even tho the race is in my neighboring district, I haven't heard much about it. I heard Jordan's (R) ads in his contested primary, but have only read about Siferd (D) on the blogs.

the 5th... drawn pretty safe for the carpet bagging, do-nothing Paul Gillmor (R), but Robin Weirauch (D) is working every second of every day to defeat him... She's a great candidate and deserves more attention from the DCCC and, I think she's getting some help from Marcy Kaptur. Marcy used to have part of the district...

the 12th - Bob Shamansky (D) is taking on Pat Tiberi (R) incumbent

the 14th - Lew Katz (D) is running against Steve LaTourette - maybe we will see more press connecting LaTourette into the Ambramoff/DeLay/Ney deal.

I'm sure other Ohioans could offer better insight.. a list of all Ohio races: http://www.politics1.com/oh.htm

[snowbear]

34. I still wish this Ohioan was running:

Then again.. I'm sure a LOT of people wish he was still running..

[OhioBlue]

38. If he was running in the 2nd, I would feel

a lot better about our chances in that district. After the special election last year, the powers that be probably should have poured money and resources into that district and had Hackett run there again. But, alas, hindsight and everything... I was a flip flopper on the whole senate thing - I always liked Sherrod, but was happy Hackett got in then disappointed it was contested when Sherrod got in, mad when the powers that be treated Hackett badly... realized Sherrod is a GREAT candidate and a GREAT chance to take back a Senate seat... I'm volunteering for him. If I had a magic wand and could do it all over - I would keep Hackett in the 2nd House race and Sherrod in the Senate race... we would have been stronger.

[Joe Bacon]

32. Could anyone unseat Melissa Fart, er, Hart in PA-4?

My home CD, what an insult that she got elected, with the help of those little black boxes...

[AZBlue]

33. I'm backing Pederson in AZ (and we have the old machines!) eom

[JohMunich99]

36. IL-6 for sure

Tammy Duckworth vs. Peter Roskam. Tammy Duckworth is an Iraq war veteran who lost both her legs in battle. Peter Roskam is a very conservative Republican. The 6th District has been Republican for quite sometime (Henry Hyde held this seat for like 30 maybe even 40 years), but the tides are changing. The district has gotten more Democratic over time and plus Roskam is too much of a social conservative for many of the Chicago suburbanites here. It's a close race and certainly not a lock, but it's likely we'll win

Also keep an eye on IL-10 and IL-11. Dan Seals (D) is running against Mark Kirk and John Pavich (D) is running against Jerry Weller. Pavich has a better shot as he is ex-CIA who has lived in the district all his life while Weller recently married the daughter of former Guatlmalen dictator Rios Mott. He spends a lot of time in Guatamala and the voters are beginning to see him as very distant. It will be more of an uphill battle than Duckworth, but Weller only won 59%-41% in 2004 running against a liberal college professor who didn't raise a lot of money.

[primative1]

39. NH 1 & 2 Are in Play

Bass and Bradley are skating on thin ice.
My thinking is that its a good thing that the elections are held in Novemeber ... after most people get the seasons first 800$ bill for heating oil.

[Dogmudgeon]

40. Pennsylvania is NOT a "sure thing" anymore

Romanelli is running as a double spoiler -- he's drawing Democrats from Casey, AND if Santorum wins, the Greens might as well dig their own (political) grave and jump in. One big infusion of money, and the Republicans are counting on winning an election AND destroying a nascent leftist party. Pretty clever, huh?

Santorum is absolutely hated by the people in PA, but the Press hates the Democrats. The Philadelphia Inquirer hasn't had a good thing to say about Democrats since 1995. They will spare no expense to drive the public opinion as close to 45%-45%-10% (Casey/ Santorum/ Romanelli) as possible. If the polling does go that close, the Republicans will win; the Democrats now have a two-front war on their (our) hands, being accused of Libbrulism by the Republicans and KKKorporate Fascism by the Greens.

At this point, the contest is all about the popular hatred of Santorum versus the elitist hatred of the Democrats. By November 6th, it will be THE most-watched contest in the country. A whole honkin' lot of Conventional Wisdom will stand and fall on its outcome.

--p!

[cally]

41. I think Pombo in Ca is vulnerable

California Dems need to head up there and walk precincts and phone bank. We may win this one.

[lonehalf]

42. It's also important to know where we ar likely to lose seats.

Our polls say that it's possible to lose GA-3 and gain GA-11.

I personally believe that we are likely to lose GA-3 and not gain GA-11.

And, of course, the only time I was ever wrong about an election was when I predicted a McGovern landslide.:sarcasm:

[SteppingRazor]

43. As far as the Senate -- PA, MO, MT, TN, RI and OH...

are the six best shots. Perhaps VA if this new Allen scandal has any legs.

The House is a bit more nebulous. In my own state of Florida, FL-22 stands the best chance of going from red to blue, where incumbent Clay Shaw faces state senate minority leader Ron Klein.

[JoshDem]

44. Senate Momentum Seems With The Repubs Currently

Santorum has closed to 6 in the latest poll. Montana, Missouri and Ohio roughly even after Dem leads in all. Rhode Island moving our way even against Chafee who probably will lose the primary making RI a layup for us. Nevada, Virginia and Kentucky long shots.
Poll out yesterday showing Stabenow up only 5 points is cause for concern on our side. NJ is also likely to go down to the wire.

Bottom line--winning the senate equivalent to drawing an inside straight--more likely is a 1-2 seat pickup..

In House, we may get control ecause of big gap in voter preference to Dems.

[David Zephyr]

45. Thank you all for the encouraging reports and input.

I just booted up my computer here at work and found all the great responses. It is encouraging to see that we do have a lot of opportunities in November.