Possible Senate pickup in Nevada?

[featherman]

From Rasmussen via a link in the Left Coaster:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/July%202006/nevadaGovernorSenate.htm

"Incumbent Republican Senator John Ensign (R) is facing an increasingly competitive race in his bid for re-election to a second term in the U.S. Senate. A recent Rasmussen Reports election survey of 500 likely voters shows Ensign’s lead in the single-digits—46% to 39%—over Democrat Jack Carter"

Probable to Possible pickups (ranked by likelihood):
PA
OH
MT
MO
RI
NV

Less Likely:
TN
VA
AZ

[Olney Blue]

1. Failure is not an option!

[LA lady]

2. Any news on Montana?

The last Rasmussen I saw for Montana had Tester and Burns tied.

[featherman]

3. You are correct...perhaps MO should be ranked ahead of MT

in order of likelihood. But Burns' margin in 2000 was under 4% and has scandal problems so I consider him vulnerable if Tester can get the money to run a strong campaign.

RI is a strange one but if Chaffee is upset by the conservative in the GOP primary, I have to like the DEMS chances in that very DEM state. That one would move up in the rankings.

NV race has Carter trailing but showing strong momentum by moving from 60-27 in April and 52-32 in May.

I'm definitely gonna cherry pick my races this year and donate to individual campaigns rather than the DSCC

[Awsi Dooger]

4. That's another Rasmussen poll I'm skeptical about

He had Tester losing significant support among Democrats. That was the basic for Burns' gain. Doesn't make a hell of a lot of sense.

One factor could be advertising. Burns has been on the air with non-stop assaults on Tester, the old tax-and-spend liberal theme. Tester has been raising money and says he plans to respond soon. The DSCC reserved more than $1.6 million in advertising in Montana and will begin those spots on August 29. So we should have a better idea where this race stands once polls are taken in perhaps mid-September.

[TheFarseer]

5. last poll I saw had Burns down 7%

Burns is toast unless something crazy happens.

[LA lady]

8. 47-47

Montana Senate: Burns Bouncing Back
Candidates Tied at 47%
August 10, 2006
The most recent Rasmussen Reports election poll in Montana shows incumbent Republican Senator Conrad Burns and Democrat Jon Tester tied at 47% (see crosstabs). This month’s results mark an improvement for Burns, who trailed Tester by seven points in last month’s poll and by four points in May.

Tester's support among fellow Democrats has slipped from 90% to 84%. Burns now gets 14% of the vote from Democrats, up from 7% a month ago.

The race had been leaning towards the Democrats, but Rasmussen Reports now rates it as a toss up.

http://rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/August%202006/MontanaSenate.htm

[TheFarseer]

9. That's disappointing

but I bow to your more recent poll.

[fujiyama]

6. I think TN would be more likely than NV

but both are difficult.

[snowbear]

7. Me too.. Harold Ford, Jr. has a decent chance..

But according to some of our Nevadan DU'ers, doesn't look so good for Carter.

Course winning Tennesee is always a debate of mixed reviews on here!

I still think HF, Jr. can do it though..

[saltpoint]

10. It would be just fine with me if we grabbed that seat in Nevada.

Go, Jack.

[Bucky]

11. wow, ground swell. I'll bet the Dems start "playing it safe" now

No instinct for the jugular. That's nice if you want to govern fairly, but useless if you're trying to unelect an incumbent