CT general election poll: Lieberman up by 3%

[welshTerrier2]

the last poll showed Lamont and Lieberman were tied ... not to worry ... Lieberman's support among Dems will not last ...

what a surprise ... after all this time, Lieberman turned out to be a republican ... who'da thunk it ...

source: http://politicalwire.com/archives/2006/08/10/in_connecticut_first_postprimary_poll_shows_tight_race.html

In Connecticut, First Post-Primary Poll Shows Tight Race

Rasmussen Reports began polling the Ned Lamont-Joe Lieberman general election match-up last night. After 375 interviews, preliminary numbers show Lieberman ahead of Lamont by 3 percentage points. Republican candidate Alan Schlesinger is a non-factor in the single digits.

The last Rasmussen survey of a three way general election found Lamont and Lieberman tied at 40% with Schlesinger at 13%. It appears Lieberman is gaining ground primarily among GOP voters.

[nasher]

1. I think it will take some time for Lamont to get ahead

the reality of Lieberman's loss is just registering, and Lamont is still a new face people need to get to now. I don't see how Lieberman's numbers will do anything but go down. That has been the trend for the last two months.

[jobycom]

2. zso if he wins, will he vote for a Dem or Repub government?

If he wins as an independent and becomes the deciding vote in maintaining a Republican Senate... are we still happy, having cost ourselves the Senate but made a statement?

Hopefully it won't come to that.

[Name removed]

3. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Old and In the Way]

15. Excellent Senator? Where was his ground support? He lost

because Democrats in CT believe siding with Republicans to wage an unnecessary and immoral war is wrong. Joe has morphed into a Washington-Faux News Democrat who has gotten media oxygen by undermining Democrats. Excellent incumbant Senators don't lose primaries. A vote for Joe was a vote for accepting the current political landscape as defined by the GOP and their wholly owned subsidiary, the corporate broadcast media.

[nasher]

17. "aren't enough leftisits in CT"

Are there enough Bush loving, Iraq loving people in CT for Joe to win?

"aren't enough leftisits in CT"

That's what you people said about the primary. I expect you, Joe, and the other Joe supporters to think he will coast to election just like you thought he would coast through the primary. You will be wrong again.

[skiddlybop]

4. But I thought all the Republican voters in Connecticut

were going to swamp Lamont and Lieberman would be up by 10 or 20 points.

This is telling us that the neo-con dead-enders only tie Lamont at best. They've all gotten the memo.

Today's showing is Lieberman's peak. It's all downhill for him from here, the more stupid things he says.

[Guaranteed]

10. I think you're right.

Time will wear-down Lieberman's Democratic support.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. I thought it would be higher

I expected high single digits.

Lamont is really hurt by the damn inconsequential Republican polling so low.

I'd be much more interested in the crosstabs than the simple margin. What percentage does Lamont pull with Democrats and independents? The split among Republicans? That's probably the key number. If Republicans are determined to abandon Schlesinger and vote for Lieberman, Lamont is the underdog.

[LTR]

8. Yeah, why don't the Rethugs have any respect for their chosen guy?

I mean, come on! Show Schlessie some love!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x1878979

[Catchawave]

6. Uh, reporting in from Virginia.....

Still a Ned Lamont?who?/Jim Webb?who? state......:hi:

Also, a WTF? is RASMussEN? state .... it's only August, we still have time :bounce:

[mom cat]

7. Loserman to split the repuke vote.

[citizen snips]

9. oh shit

that is scary :scared:

[Guaranteed]

11. Nah, this is good news.

It's all downhill for Lieberman. If this is all he's got, I'm happy.

[Mass]

12. MOE = 5 % - This is a statistical tie. You are right, nothing to worry

[Awsi Dooger]

13. Full update possibly available later tonight

Before midnight, according to the Rasmussen website.

I hope someone has access to the crosstabs, when it comes out.

[dolstein]

14. So much for the argument that support for Lieberman would collapse

His level of support appears to be unaffected by the primary loss. Any decline in Democratic support has been offset by increased support among Republicans.

Of course, the final poll results aren't in yet. But I don't see how Lamont supporters can spin this as good news. After all, Lieberman and Lamont were statistically tied in a three way race in a poll taken about a week before the primary. If the results of this partial sample stand, that would mean that Lamont had gotten no bounce from his primary victory over Lieberman.

[Guaranteed]

16. Yup, 36 hours later. There goes THAT theory! nt

[nasher]

18. Yeah, they were tied a week ago and now they are

still tied right after the primary. A guy with 18 years of experience is tied with someone who everyone laughed at a few months ago. You are right, Lamont supporters should wave the white flag. :eyes:

Joe certainly will spin this as good news. A three way split descision in 2004 was good news. Losing to an unknown with incredible high voter turnout was good news. What ISN'T good news for Joe?

[dolstein]

19. How is this good news for Lamont?

Lamont is coming off the biggest night of his political life, and yet the polls for a three-way race didn't budge. There may have been internal movement. I wouldn't be surprised if Lamont picked up additional support from Democrats, but that was offset by additional support for Lieberman among Republicans.

Lamont and his supporters were counting on Lieberman's support collapsing in the wake of a primary loss. That didn't happen. And with polls showing Lieberman running even or even slightly ahead of Lamont in a three-way race, there doesn't seem to be must chance of Lieberman withdrawing from the race anytime soon.

[nasher]

20. Jesus, give is some time.

The primary was freaking Tuesday. Most people don't even pay attention to primaries.

Explain to me how this poll is good for an incumbent Senator who is about ready to start his own political party with mostly verbal endorsements from Team Bush, while his barely known newbie competitor JUST STARTED getting money and support from the Democratic Party machine. And in a state that doesn't have any fondness for Bush, his cronies or this war.

[Cha]

22. Yeah, that asshole spins bullshit as

"good news".

[Awsi Dooger]

21. That 40-40 poll was the same day as a 51-41 primary poll

In Lamont's favor. Both on July 23 by Rasmussen.

So, if we conclude Lieberman's late gains cut the deficit from 51-41 to 52-48 on primary day, that could mean he would have led a general election poll by 2-3 points on primary day. That's an assumption, of course, but a logical one given a move in Lieberman's direction but in a general election sample not as pronounced as among primary voters. Maybe half as much, 6 points to 2 or 3.

If that's true, and we take today's Rasmussen margin at face value, looks like the primary didn't change one thing, at least not immediately.

The other argument is we really had no idea where the general election stood before the primary. No polls in weeks, and one with a 24 point lead slightly before Rasmussen had it 40-40.

[RiffRandell]

23. Yeah, kinda like who'da thunk the green party's candidate in PA

Carl Romanelli had mostly republican sigs to get on the ballot. Go Ned Lamont!!!!!!!!!