Big Batch of Rating Changes Reflects Stronger Democratic Breeze

[ProSense]

Big Batch of Rating Changes Reflects Stronger Democratic Breeze

By Bob Benenson 18 minutes ago

Snip...

The ratings changes below include summaries of the reasoning behind each switch. Stories containing more detailed explanations will follow in the coming days.

p>Nevada
• New rating: Safe Republican
• Old rating: Republican Favored

New Mexico
• New rating:Safe Democratic
• Old rating:Democrat Favored

Rhode Island
• New rating: No Clear Favorite
• Old rating: Leans Republican
Lincoln Chafee, the least conservative of the 55 Republican senators, is facing a two-pronged attack that seriously threatens his hold on the seat in Rhode Island, normally a Democratic stronghold. Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey, who is supported by the national conservative political action organization Club for Growth, is staging a serious challenge to Chafee in the Sept. 12 primary — trying to persuade the small but conservative-leaning Republican primary electorate that Chafee veers to far to the left. And both polls and campaign cash on hand figures suggest that Chafee, if he survives the primary, would have an increasingly difficult time staving off Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse, a former state attorney general who is strongly favored to win his party’s nomination.

House
Arizona 1
• New rating: Leans Republican
• Old rating:Safe Republican

Arizona 8
• New rating: No Clear Favorite
• Old rating: Leans Republican

California 50
• New rating: Republican Favored
• Old rating:Leans Republican

Connecticut 4
• New rating: No Clear Favorite
• Old rating: Leans Republican
A popular moderate throughout most of his 19 years representing this southwestern Connecticut district in the New York City suburbs, Republican Rep. Christopher Shays (news, bio, voting record) this year faces a fight for political survival in a rematch with Democrat Diane Farrell — a former local mayor who held him to 52 percent and his smallest victory margin ever in 2004. The big issue, then as now, is Shays’ support for the war in Iraq, a dicey issue in a swing district that favored Democrat John Kerry over Bush two years ago. Bush and the war have grown even more unpopular since then, leaving Shays relying on his incumbency and reputation for integrity to pull him through.

Connecticut 5
• New rating: Leans Republican
• Old rating:Republican Favored
Republican Nancy L. Johnson, seeking a 13th term, benefits from her clout as a senior member of the Ways and Means Committee and her generally moderate views on social issues in a district that favored Kerry for president — though just barely — two years ago. But Johnson, who won easily that year, faces a tougher political environment and a much tougher opponent in young state Sen. Chris Murphy. Though Johnson is exhibiting her typical fundraising clout, Murphy also has made a strong showing for a challenger: He had $1 million cash on hand as of June 30 to $2.6 million for the veteran incumbent.

Illinois 6
• New rating: No Clear Favorite
• Old rating: Leans Republican
This district in suburbs west of Chicago is generically Republican, but that edge certainly has narrowed because of demographic changes and the national political environment. The Democrats have a strong and attention-netting candidate in Tammy Duckworth, an injured Iraq war veteran who has matched the Republican nominee, state Sen. Peter Roskam, in overall campaign receipts ($1.9 million). Duckworth is emphasizing fiscal conservatism, including an opposition to so-called spending “earmarks,” and is promoting her support for federal funding of embryonic stem cell research. But Republican officials and Roskam’s campaign say Duckworth has not staked out clear positions on some major issues and is too closely tied to Chicago Democratic strategists who recruited her and are advising her campaign.

Illinois 10
• New rating: Republican Favored
• Old rating: Safe Republican

Minnesota 6
• New rating: No Clear Favorite
• Old rating: Leans Republican

Nebraska 1
• New rating: Republican Favored
• Old rating: Safe Republican

Nevada 2
• New rating: Leans Republican
• Old rating: Republican Favored

New York 20
• New rating: Leans Republican
• Old rating: Republican Favored

New York 27
• New rating: Safe Democratic
• Old rating: Democrat Favored

Oregon 5
• New rating: Safe Democratic
• Old rating: Democrat Favored

Wisconsin 8
• New rating: Leans Republican
• Old rating: Republican Favored

Wyoming At-Large
• New rating: Leans Republican
• Old rating: Republican Favored

more...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/cq/20060810/pl_cq_politics/bigbatchofratingchangesreflectsstrongerdemocraticbreeze_1

[Peace Patriot]

1. Interesting analysis--but it claws at my democratic soul to see so much

depend on fundraising zillions. After we get rid of the Bushite-controlled electronic voting machines--with their hilariously funny TRADE SECRET, PROPRIETARY vote "tabulation" software--the next thing we had better do is remove all private money from political campaigns.

THEN we will have a democracy. What we have now is difficult to describe, but if you've seen the movie "The Matrix," you'll have some idea what I think about it. Poke a hole in the bubble of apparent reality and you see what's REALLY happening--and it ain't pretty.

[Peace Patriot]

2. Addendum to the downer post: The wonder is that there are still many,

many people who ARE poking their finger into the bubble of apparent reality, and trying hard to pull us all into the real world.

We have polls and various analyses that point to HUMONGOUS discontent with the Bush junta. (We had them in 2004, too, but I'll put that aside.) 65% to 70% of the American people have despised Bush and his heinous cabal for going on two years--basically since his hilariously funny 2nd term inauguration (--after invading the wrong country, blithely slaughtering a hundred thousand innocent people, and torturing many more, all at a cost of $10 TRILLION in deficit spending, most of it to lard the super-rich and his v-p's buds at Halliburton et al). (That's what I mean by hilariously funny. He also can't speak coherently.)

Sorry. I can't get off 2004. We have polls--many, many polls of all kinds--showing that the American people have resisted the 24/7 propaganda telling them that all this killing and theft is good for them. They've not buying it. They are, in truth, much better informed than people give them credit for. But they don't quite understand their disempowerment. It is a Dark Secret--even in Democratic circles (until very recently, when some Dem leaders have begun pushing the line that it's all the touchscreens fault--if they only had a "paper trail," etc.). And, once they figure it out--and I think they will--and we have all this discontent in the populace, and all these Repub seats now in doubt, and the smell of Dem victory in the air, and we go through Stolen Election III (inevitable), we may see civil disorder. I hope not--because civil disorder is easily put down and marginalized (even big civil disorder). I hope people get smart and go after the voting machines--civilly, legally--and get the goddamned diabolical things OUT OF OUR ELECTION SYSTEM.

It could happen soon--if everybody votes by Absentee Ballot. Boycott the machines! Create a CRISIS in the election theft system, and force reform NOW. AB votes are not "safe" either, and the AB voting protest will NOT result in accurate counts this fall. That is impossible. But, if enough people vote AB (and many are--it's up to 50% in Los Angeles), PANIC, DISARRAY and RIDICULE (all those expensive, shiny new election theft machines, and nobody will use them!) will bring local/state election officials to the table, where our election reform experts will make certain demands. In short: People vote, and you count the votes in public view. Like that. Real simple. No brainer.

Then we're going to have a revolution in this country, real peaceful-like.