My prediction: Joe will drop out before November

[StrongBad]

My reasoning? Well, Joe simply doesn't have the cult of personality to sustain an independent run against the official party candidate. It's not like he's someone that truly energizes a sect of people that could turn into a true 3rd party movement.

Furthermore, I truly believe that Democrats won't stand for this petulant self-absorbed display of dis-loyalty. I think that polls prior to election day will show him trailing behind at an embarassing pace and he'll have no choice but to drop out or face a servere thrashing come election day.

Granted, I am not an expert on CT state politics and there may be some nuances of the state that may cause one to disagree with me, but I'd really like to hear such arguments as to why the above scenario will not pan out.

[grytpype]

1. I agree 100%.

Once he starts polling badly, he'll drop out.

If Loserman thinks he's going to get 48% of the Dem vote in the general plus enough Repugs to put him over the top, he's deloserinal.

[GreenArrow]

2. I agree

He is going to get minimal support from the National party.

[Salviati]

3. If he gets ANY support from the national party, it's time to start howling

[calimary]

22. Agreed, but I don't think they dare.

At least not while the body's still cooling.

Some of 'em may go underground for awhile and wait (hope) for the heat to die down. Which means they have to be watched carefully and vigilantly. ANY Democrat fool enough to stand with bush and support the war at this point needs his/her head examined.

It reminds me of the morning after Proposition 13, the big property tax cutting proposal, passed here in California. It was the first shot heard 'round the country and it led to a WHOLE LOT more, with serious repercussions (one of which was some B-movie has-been named Ronald Reagan).

I think this is Prop 13 2.0.

[StrongBad]

4. Yes

This is another factor I neglected to mention but we're already seeing this pan out the morning after.

I'm really curious to see what DLC leadership has to say. If for some reason they do the right thing and back Lamont, it's over.

[fasttense]

5. I agree

Right now Joe is angry at losing, and he is expressing that anger. Later the emotions will die down and he will start to realize just what happened. He is in denial and will soon move to acceptance. He will come to regret some of the childish inflammatory things he has said along the way but he will come to see reason.

Also the conservative corporate media think of him as their darling. They can't pretend to be showing both sides of a story by bringing in their token Democratic party member any more. So they are rallying around him and giving him a forum to express his anger. But the more he expresses it, the more he comes across as a sore loser. He sounds petulant and petty.

Soon the country and CT will move on and if Joe continues to show this very petty behavior he will just alienate even more voters. The corporate media can rally all they want but they have lost control of the political dialog when it comes to Joe.

[nancyr]

6. Petty and embarrassing

[mcscajun]

7. When he does, he'll declare he's moving to the Republican Party.

Count on it.

[StrongBad]

8. Now that would be something!!

I'm not saying I'd be surprised, either...

[GreenArrow]

9. no, he'll become a professional guest "pundit"

and fund raiser for DLC candidates.

[mcscajun]

26. I'm sure Fox will put him to work.

ugh

[Cosmocat]

21. YEP !!!

You nailed it ...

Lieberman will reemerge as a republican ...

[PRETZEL]

10. I'm not so sure,

what we do know for a fact is that the Republicans desperately want Joe in the race in hopes that he'll draw enough votes to either win or allow their candidate to sneak in. So my guess is that you'll see alot of money coming from RNC groups that will allow him to maintain his campaign.

If that happens Lamont had better be ready to point that out to the voters of CT.

[Snivi Yllom]

11. not only do I disagree

I think Lieberman has a good of winning, probably by 2-3 points. The momentum has been with Lieberman the last few weeks closing a double digit deficit.

There are at a minimum 750,000 additioanl votes to be had, and I think the majority of those, many indy voters, will break to Lieberman. The underperforming GOP candidate is the wild card.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. You've got it exactly right, Snivi Yllom

I was numbed last night when I looked at the math. As you indicate, there are hundreds of thousands of votes to be had in the general election, more than 1 million votes in that race compared to less than 300,000 last night. In 2000, Lieberman received more than 800,000 votes. It's true this will be a midterm not a presidential year vote so turnout should be lower, but for Lieberman to lose he'd need to have that 800,000 cut in half, if not slightly more than half.

No way he doesn't realize that and stay in the race. Especially since the gap was only 10,000. Lieberman will lose a big chunk of his supporters from last night, but not all, and logically he makes that up with additional voters who are much more in line with his political thinking. He's got to believe the voters most dissatisfied with him have already been heard from.

Excellent point about Schlesinger. Far too little attention paid to him around here, not in terms of winning but how his percentage impacts the Lamont/Lieberman outcome. I'll be fascinated to see if Lamont's campaign understands that and what steps he takes. Lieberman can just ignore Schlesinger since he benefits from Schlesinger nabbing as few votes as possible. However, Lieberman's campaign has been so incompetent it would be hysterical if he continued on that path and started making Schlesinger a topic.

[PRETZEL]

13. Another aspect which may be lost

is the Congressional races. I'm not sure which districts are being contested and which are safe. I looked earlier and saw that the split is 3-2 Republican. My opinion, fwiw, is that Lieberman's fate may ulitmately ride in how much trouble Chris Shays, Nancy Johnson and Rob Simmons Congressional districts vote. If I did the research right, they are the 3 Republican Congress members. A swing in any of those districts (assuming the Dem's are safe) may be enough to carry Lamont. I'm not sure voters would split votes just to vote for Lieberman.

[Awsi Dooger]

20. That's one potential benefit of the 3-way race

Energizing Democratic turnout and possibly impacting those three House seats. Shays, Johnson and Simmons are all among the contested races.

[Snivi Yllom]

19. strategically Lieberman will go after Lamont

and ignore Schlesinger.

[LincolnMcGrath]

17. The momentum was simply media driven junk science.

In just over a month, Lamont had surged from 6 down to 11 up in the primary, a swing of 17 points.

[StrongBad]

18. Good points all around

But at the heart of the matter I think Joe is going to be considered damaged goods. The fact that he did indeed lose yesterday is something Lamont will (and rightfully should) hammer over his head at every chance he gets if polling indicates a tight race - and he should also call him out on not respecting the party's wishes.

When it comes down to it, are the voters going to vote for a loser in a race which garnered much publicity, and to some extent humiliation, for Joe? I personally think no given the history of voters, and simply because Joe isn't a guy that I can see many voters getting excited about.

[bigwillq]

14. I feel Joe's in it until the end.

Joe cares only about himself. That's just the type of guy he is.
He'll look bad going down like this but he'll be there until the end, no matter how bad and how ugly he looks.

[okieinpain]

15. exactly I agree whole heartedly.

[calico1]

16. I agree.

He is already making himself look foolish. The more shrill, defensive and paranoid he appears the more support he loses. More and more people will just want him to go away.

[LynneSin]

23. If polls stay at 40-40 between the two of them by this time next month

then Joe will stay.

[LincolnMcGrath]

24. The Democrats need to toss him like a cheating husband NOW

Toss his staff and office contents onto the senate lawn NOW

[laugle]

25. I agree, because if he loses again

his career is over for good!!!

Better that he gets out for the good of his party.

But also, I have this bad feeling that he has a real stubborn streak, however, after his anger and shock wear off maybe a cooler head will prevail and he will see that he is doing a disservice to the party he claims to care so much about.

Time will tell......