Election Prediction: Democrats Will Take Back House

[Lasher]

Monday, August 07, 2006

With the usual caveat that events could change the dynamic in the next three months, let me venture the following prediction: Democrats will capture a net of at least 25 seats and will control the next Congress by at least 10 seats.

This prediction is based on the premise that Democrats will not lose any seats in which a Democratic incumbent is running for re-election. That’s exactly what served as the bedrock of the Republican’s historic win in 1994. No Republican incumbent was defeated that year. My reasons for believing Democrats can pick up enough additional seats for a majority are explained after my predictions.

Since Democrats are currently down by 15 seats, picking up 25 seats would give them a 10 seat margin when Congress convenes in January. If the bottom totally falls out for Republicans and there is a national tidal wave in favor of the Democrats, the margin could be much greater.

<snip>

An NPR poll of likely voters in the 50 most competitive House seats in the country (40 Republican seats and 10 Democratic seats) released on July 27 showed that a majority of voters in these districts disapproved of the job President Bush is doing and that only 29 percent of the voters said they intend to vote for their incumbent Congressman.

<snip>

For a number of months, much of the press bought into the Republicans’ mantra that there weren’t enough seats in play for Democrats to actually take control of the House. There clearly are enough seats up for grabs and this is how you get to the magic number.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,207347,00.html

I have been correctly advised here at DU that I should be more cautious about victory predictions than I am inclined to be. It is most likely that we will pick up 4 or 5 seats in the Senate - short of the 6 that we need to regain control there. Realistic and objective folks are saying we will pick up no more than 10 House seats, where we need at least 15.

http://electionpredictions.blogspot.com/

But consider this: The Hamper says he is going to have his name omitted from the ballot in Texas, leaving his party twisting in the wind with a write-in campaign. Ohio Congressman Bob Ney (R-of course) just announced that he will not seek re-election so that he can better focus on avoiding conviction for his crimes.

Most people have been predicting that both these seats would be retained by the GOP. If that were once true, I don't think it is now. If I'm right that's 2 more seats - still short of what we need for a majority in the House.

I believe we will be able to come up with enough seats to win control of the House, however, in part because people are getting sicker every day of Junior and his Bush-league lapdog Congress. Momentum is with us. Time is our friend.

Edit for typo.

[Lasher]

1. Boo hoo, the whole world has me on ignore.

Nobody loves me. :cry:

[Tiggeroshii]

2. Yay!

I like that idea, but I'm still not sure. Ney actually increased the chances of the GOP retaining his seat by resigning(he was ridden with so much scandal). But a seat that we can be sure to win is a district that the Supreme court forced to be reattached from befor ethe 2004 election. That was a firmly Democratic district. DeLay and that seat are two guaranteed seats we can win in 04. That is an interesting poll that is cited from NPR. I hope it proves real.

[ndcohn]

3. "realistic and objective" folk have shifted

first, www.electionpredictions.blogspot.com is run by a high school kid, who almost never updates his predictions. He also almost NEVER updates his predictions... his predictions were much more accurate a few months ago when he was actually updating.

second, most big "realistic and objective folk", WERE saying we would likely pick up no more then 10, are saying we have a very good shot at picking up the house.

Charlie Cook, who runs the cook political report
National Journal
http://www.cookpolitical.com/column/2006/080506.php -- August 5, 2006
"Time is running out for Republicans. Unless something dramatic happens before Election Day, Democrats will take control of the House. And the chances that they'll seize the Senate are rising toward 50-50."


Larry Sabato @ "The Crystal Ball" said on August 3rd... http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=DNW2006080301
Just over one month ago, the Crystal Ball argued that a larger wave than currently existed at the time would have to build in order for Republicans to lose their congressional majorities. At the time, the race-by-race rather than national dynamic of competitive races pointed more towards a "micro-wave" than a "macro-wave" for out-of-power Democrats. But now, with a quarter of time elapsed between that pulse-reading and the election, surer signs are emerging that something more substantial than a "micro-wave" is heating up this summer. Historical trends and big picture indicators--generic congressional ballot tests and approval ratings of President Bush's job performance in particular - have always been heavily stacked against the GOP in this "sixth year itch" cycle, but aggregations of more race-specific indicators are now suggesting that Republicans are headed for their most serious midterm losses in decades. ... In this inhospitable climate, the GOP could well get burned worse than initially expected. At this stage, the Crystal Ball is shifting its outlook from a Democratic gain of 6-8 to a Democratic gain of 12-15 seats in the House. We also believe that our original guestimate of a Democratic gain of 2 or 3 seats in the Senate is probably too low; we now expect a Democratic Senate gain of a minimum of 3 seats and a maximum of 6 seats--that's right, we know that the Democrats would take over the Senate at 6. It is still a long shot, but it is not the long shot of long shots that it once was. We can see a clear pathway to a Democratic Senate pickup of 4 or 5 seats, and at that point it is simply a matter of the Democrats getting lucky and securing one additional seat from among several possibilities.

[Lasher]

5. Election Predictions works for me.

I was actually thinking about a couple of DU contributors who I consider to be "realistic and objective" but you couldn't have known that because I didn't say so.

Being a high school kid doesn't automatically make you a dummy. Updates have not been timely in the past but if you check out the site you will see that this is starting to improve.

I have been tracking the latest polls of every US Senate race and have been recording their results on a simple spreadsheet. Since I have a good handle on that, I am able to compare my conclusions with those of others. The Senate race projections at that web site are generally consistent with mine, and with those at other sites such as this one:

http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2006.html

The above site lists Bernie Sanders as a Democrat and not an Independent but I'll forgive them for that.

Having thus developed a modest degree of confidence in these sites, I occasionally refer to them mostly for projections about the House races, of which I do not otherwise have a good understanding. I know of no better source for this particular type of view - where I can see an outcome summary, followed by details of the individual races. If you know of one, I would be grateful if you would direct me to it.

[AJ9000]

4. The Democrats will win back Congress?

The Republicans have some warfare planned to change all that. We'll have to see how the public reacts to it.

Another wild card is whether the powers that be are actually in control of the elections through electronic voting.

[Lasher]

6. That's what the guy says in the article I shared

I am personally not so reckless as to predict this as a certainty.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. I'll take you off ignore for one thread only

Hey Lasher. I saw your thread plummeting this afternoon but instead of rescuing it I thought you deserved some adversity. :)

Looking better lately, especially in the senate with Brown a consensus leader and Chafee in big trouble in Rhode Island. The GOP has sent in a team of outsiders to rescue his GOTV for the September primary. Chafee is one of the least objectionable Republicans out there, but I'm not one to think it's fine if he wins the primary, since Whitehouse is leading the polls anyway. We can't argue that, while expecting Lamont to get a huge boost coming out of a heavily contested primary. Chafee would also. Plus he has incumbency.

In the House we're now a small favorite. Based on overall national mood more than race to race. I think Tiggeroshii is correct, the Ney departure actually hurts us somewhat, like the Duke Cunningham race in San Diego. It's better to have the scandal plagued target to shoot at, not the replacement.

We might be losing ground in the gov races. Still favored to net many races but perhaps not the 9 or 10 that have been projected. The govs are seldom mentioned around here but some of the recent signs aren't great, like Granholm in trouble in Michigan and Knowles in Alaska not the favorite if Sarah Palin wins the GOP primary, which looks likely.

[Lasher]

8. Lamont will win in the general election

Exit polls showed that voters resented Lieberman's close ties with Junior even more than his pro-Iraq war stance. When Rove and Dubya let it be known that they would help their favorite former Democrat out, they thought they were throwing him a life preserver - but this was an anchor instead, mark my words.

You're probably right about Ney, but his departure does mean we won't be going up against an incumbent there. That's what I was thinking.

We have been losing ground in the governors races, as you suspect. You can see that pretty easily if you go to the WSJ poll and step through the archives in the governors tab.

OK you can put me back on ignore now. :-(