Poll: Is Rasmussen Lamont-Lieberman poll reliable???

[Selatius]

They say Ned Lamont is now tied with Lieberman in a three-way race with Schlesinger factored in as well.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/July%202006/connecticutSenateJuly.htm

[Bucky]

1. You might want to reword this.

The question is either-or, but the answers are yes-no. Am I answering yes-no to reliability or yes-no to the total crap part?

[Selatius]

2. On second thought, it does come off as confusing. How about now? n/t

[Bucky]

3. Yes, much better now

my answer: "I have no idea"

[Awsi Dooger]

4. If Lamont wins big in the primary, you might see polls like that

Lieberman is nuts if thinks he'll still have the 15 or 20 point lead after losing a party primary. Especially if it's by double digit margin, which some polls now indicate.

The media pounces on the story and Lieberman is branded a loser. A loser who blew a 65-19 lead. Pictures and interviews with a beaming and celebrating Lamont while Joe will be shown with a dopey expression. We'll get 'em next time, the loser's lament. It all piles on and will have impact on people who never considered voting in the primary.

I would guess the polling would be very close. No doubt we'll see a flurry of polls after the primary, due to the national interest in the race.

Then Lamont might flatten out. I say that only because it's damn tough to continue gaining week after week. His peak number can't be very high considering the lack of political background.

Of course, I never thought Lamont could win this race until a month ago, so my handicapping here could be way off. Part of that flawed handicapping was expecting a competent campaign from Lieberman. It's like when you handicap a horse race, you don't expect the favorite to carry three saddles and hug the outside rail the whole way around, which would be the racing equivalent of how inept Lieberman's campaign has been.

[wakeme2008]

5. IMHO once Lieberman loses the primary, he WILL NOT run as an indep.

Bush will give him position for a couple years.

[wyldwolf]

6. I am not sure but lean towards yes

Polls are generally reliable but not deadly accurate.

There are some undecideds that could still break either way.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. For what it's worth, the odds are now close to 50/50

On Tradesports the Field (Lieberman as Independent) is basically the same betting price as a Democrat winning the general election.

Of course, that 50/50 is a little bit misleading since Lieberman winning the primary is also factored into the price of the Democrat winning in November. Once Lamont wins the primary, the FIeld will become the favorite, but not by considerable margin.

BTW, Lamont is now a 4/1 betting favorite to win the primary.

[Warren Stupidity]

8. Rasmussen polls are in general suspect.

Which does not mean that they are wrong. Just not reliable. Rasmussen tends to skew Republican. How they would skew this one is anyone's guess.

[NoPasaran]

9. Probably more reliable than this one

[sampsonblk]

10. Lamont is getting a lot of publicity

He is becoming a rallying point for Dems across the country. I am not sure about the poll numbers, but it does stand to reason that his support should be growing considerably and Leiberman's support should be waning equally fast.

[Stinky The Clown]

11. I believe the poll is unreliable, but not for the same reasons as most

It sure looks like Lamont is going to clean Holy's clock in the perimary. If/when that happens, all bets are off and the whole thing becomes VERY unpredictable.

First, if Joe loses the primary, he'll have the smell of 'loser' all over himself. This will be the third time in recent memory ('00 for veep, '04 in the primaries, and this). That's not a role that flatters him.

Next is momentum. People love to ride a winner and they love to ride an underdog winner even more. That will help only one person - Lamont. Joe and the weak repub candidate can't help but lose some support to that. Lamont could easily grow to juggernaut proportions. Or not.

Last, it still seems to be less than a certainty that Joe will stay in as an Indie. But I think that if he does, he'll do badly. Most of his national Dem endorsers will flip to Lamont. That will likely hurt his fundraising (if he still has any need to do that; he may already have all he needs). It will surely keep him flat-footed during any campaign.

On balance, I think any Joementum has already morphed into Nomentum.

The poll you cite - any poll, for that matter - can't even come close to being accurate when there are so many variables. And then there's the overall unprecedented nature of this race. Things in Connecticut are changing daily. That and any poll is outdated before its even tabulated.

Were I to have actually voted in your poll, I'd have said 'absolutely, no'.

[Selatius]

12. kick n/t