CA 50: Why Francine Busby lost

[jaysunb]

Voters did not believe either candidate's vow to change President Bush's policies. This was as true of Bilbray on immigration as it was of Busby on the culture of corruption or troop deployment in Iraq. Thus, while Independents hold an outlook very similar to Democrats on a range of people and issues, including the Bush administration, the direction of the country, and public policy, they are not turning to Democrats (or even bothering to vote).
Therefore, we conclude the following:
The culture of corruption message must be abandoned altogether inside of districts where there is not a direct connection (think Tom DeLay, Richard Pombo and Bob Ney). Democrats should stop proposing, or at least stop foregrounding, legislation they will try to enact when they are in control of Congress. Since few believe the Democrats can make these changes even if they were in charge of Congress, we do not think anyone will vote for Democrats or against Republicans based on this issue. Expect Democratic pick ups in November in districts where: Less money will be spent (which quite possibly is everywhere) There will be less media attention preventing a potential "gaffe" (again, which quite possibly will be everywhere) There is a higher percentage of Democrats relative to Republicans (almost all competitive, Republican-held districts this fall)
http://couragecampaign.org/node/1422

[WCGreen]

1. Busby lost simply because it was an overwelhmingly

republican district, the Bilbray campaign was well funded and did everything they were suppose to do, played it by the book...

That Busby came that close is more shocking, frankly, than Hacketts cloe call last summer...

[Misskittycat]

7. I have one anecdote from the MoveOn party Monday night.

This is not intended to be a comment on what happened generally in the election -- just a single anecdote that was disturbing.

I was at the MoveOn house party Monday night in North San Diego County. It was well attended; some 40 people showed up. These were obviously people committed to get out the Democratic vote in November.

A woman sitting next to me told me that she had donated to Busby's campaign, and had worked on the campaign. Then she added: "But her stand on immigration was a problem, so I just couldn't vote for her."

I was a bit stunned. I responded, calmly I believe, by explaining that no one is going to agree with a candidate on all issues, but overall, electing a Democrat in November is so important that disagreement on a single issue should be put aside for the greater good. I basically guilted her into voting for Busby next time. I think she actually understood how counterproductive her decision was, and that not voting for Busby is essentially allowing Bilbray to win.

BTW, I didn't try to get into her objection on the immigration issue. I didn't think that would be productive at all, and I just wasn't interested in getting into a substantive argument on that point.

I've heard a bit of other anecdotal evidence that this mind-set kept some Democrats away from the polls. I don't know what we do about that.

[WCGreen]

12. Very important message there...

About over looking one issue for the good of them all...

Like Casey in PA..

He is pro life....

And even though I send checks to planned parenthood, I would still vote for Casey over Sanitarium....

[bullimiami]

2. did she lose? the way the election was run there is no way to know.

i always find these blindered analyses annoying.
if the count had found busby ahead by some small number of votes would the analysis be about why she 'won'?
if WIN or LOSE swings on a few votes what exactly are they analyzing? a handfull of voters? and with the elections being run as corrupt as they are, by machines and people that cannot be trusted, what is the point of this sort of analysis?

[SteppingRazor]

3. I disagree somewhat...

"The culture of corruption message must be abandoned altogether inside of districts where there is not a direct connection (think Tom DeLay, Richard Pombo and Bob Ney)"

I think that, in districts where there is not a direct connection, a direct connection should be established. It's that easy. Between DeLay, Abramoff, Cunningham, etc. it shouldn't be too hard.

From Hunter Thompson's Fear and Loathing, Campaign 2004:

"Back in 1948, during his first race for the U.S. Senate, Lyndon Johnson was running about ten points behind, with only nine days to go. He was sunk in despair. He was desperate. And it was just before noon on a Monday, they say, when he called his equally depressed campaign manager and instructed him to call a press conference for just before lunch on a slow news day and accuse his high-riding opponent, a pig farmer, of having routine carnal knowledge of his barnyard sows, despite the pleas of his wife and children.

His campaign manager was shocked. “We can’t say that, Lyndon,” he supposedly said. “You know it’s not true.”

“Of course it’s not true!” Johnson barked at him. “But let’s make the bastard deny it!”

Johnson — a Democrat, like Bill Clinton — won that election by fewer than a hundred votes, and after that he was home free. He went on to rule Texas and the U.S. Senate for twenty years and to be the most powerful vice president in the history of the United States. Until now."


When you're in a fight for your life, you don't fight by Marquis of Queensberry rules.

[AndyA]

4. The fact that Busby lost is up for debate. There seems to be a lot of

evidence that indicates something covert happened to change the outcome of the election. We need honest elections before we can really tell which way the wind is blowing.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

5. Um considering that it's CUNNINGHAM's district, how does the culture

of corruption not apply????

[livetohike]

6. 45,000 Democrats in the 50th failed to come out and vote

in the primary. I don't doubt there were some irregularities, but the main problem is apathy.

[Sam Odom]

8. "But her stand on immigration was a problem..."

Bingo! Dems in the Beltway just don't get it. Closing of emergency rooms is a dem. repub. indy, & green problem.

[acmejack]

9. I like your organizations name!

courageforcongress

I would think those are two of our best selling points on the most basic of levels. We're more trustworthy than they are, See they're all a bunch of thieves! Perhaps people all know they have been scammed and just hate being reminded of it.

But it seems pretty naive to think I can get away with claiming I have absolutely no agenda for my term, why bother running? I could probably claim it will be retroactively declared a State Secret as soon as I am elected and I don't want any of these good people visited by Homeland Security. But seriously, it seems that a candidate has to put ideas to the foreground.

edit for missing text

[OzarkDem]

10. The ran a DLC-like campaign and it didn't work

DLC has candidates run as close as possible to GOP on issues, hence GOP - lite. What that means is, DLC Dems end up never defining themselves to voters on a wide range of issues. The corruption and immigration messages alone weren't enough to get people to switch votes from R to D.

The Dem issues were easily muddied by GOP opposition because independent voters hadn't heard enough from the Dem candidate.

Acting like a Republican isn't enough to get Independent voters to swing to Dem.

[unda cova brutha]

11. she lost because the repubs rigged the election again.

I am getting dam tired of them doing this.