a "nationalized" Democratic tide

[welshTerrier2]

this post is more a question than a statement of position ...

we are 3 months from the critical November elections ... the polls look pretty good for Democrats ... but maybe they aren't quite good enough ... the big questions about Dems gaining control of the House and/or Senate are very difficult to answer ...

right now, the best guesses seem to suggest we can win the House and just miss in the Senate ...

many talk about fundraising and campaign work and 50 state strategies ... all of these are obviously critically important ... but fighting locally does not "nationalize" the election ... it makes a huge difference in each race but it doesn't do that much for a nationalized message that ALL DEMS ARE BETTER THAN ALL REPUBLICANS ... local campaign work fights for a candidate; not for a party ...

the question is, is there anything the Democrats should be doing on the national stage that they are not currently doing to "nationalize" the message? do you even value the idea of "nationalizing" the message? how can we convey to voters that we need to "get rid of all of them because all of us are better"?

Democrats may end up blowing the republicans out of town far beyond what any current polls are showing ... but i think the only way "landslides" will occur is if voters believe we need not just some new reps and Senators but more importantly a new party in power ...

[Totallybushed]

1. They need to

get the message out about election thievery. They need to have poll watchers at every voting place. They need to accompany the ballots till they counted. They need to get paper ballots in every location.

I don't think they can do all that, in time. Maybe we'll win anyway.

[AX10]

2. kick

[napi21]

3. I think we live in a copycat society.

If on a national level, it looks like the Dems are the winners, many will vote for their perception of "the winner"!

That's why I agree with Howard Dean when he keeps blaming Shrub & the Pubs for all the problems. He's making it a national issue, and many voters will say, I'm not going to put the Pubs back in charge because they've made a mess!

My biggest fear is that, because it's a mid term election, lots of people just aren't going to bother to get off the damn couch, out the door, and to the polls!

[welshTerrier2]

4. "nationalized negative campaigning"

OK ... so you think Dems can maybe win back the House and Senate by focussing on the republican mess ... that seems like it's been more or less the extent of a national message ...

so far, while it's obviously an important part of the puzzle, it's not clear it will be enough ...

and some will argue the Dems have a clear message and it's working ... they may be right ... my view is that the "nationalized party message" is pretty vague ... maybe that's good politics ... maybe not ...

are Americans clear how Democrats will "fix" the economy? i'm not sure i'm clear on the big plan ... are Americans clear that Democrats would end the war in Iraq more quickly than republicans? Democrats have called for some withdrawals but it's not clear they support a more rapid pace of withdrawal than the republicans would support ... are Dems willing to leave Iraq even if it's still a mess? i'm not sure i can really answer that ...

and what about our catastophic national deficit and national debt? do voters know where Democrats would make the necessary spending cuts or how they would raise the necessary revenues to balance the budget? most of us know they would rollback bush's insane tax cut ... we also know that that would not be nearly enough ... i'm not able to state how Dems would cut spending ...

now maybe all these "tangible" issues are not what winning elections is all about ... maybe it all can be reduced to "they screwed up so give us a chance" ... i'm just worried that when republicans come after us, nationally, and argue that it's easy to criticize but that the Dems have no answers either, our campaign may fall a little short of what we need ...

[napi21]

5. I believe you're talking about the Politics needed in 08, not

necessarily in 06. Most of the problems you referenced are not controlled by congress, but by the WH! Sure a Congress can pressure the WH, they can get the mic and voice their message, but the only thing they can do about Iraq is to stop funding. I don't see that happening because even I would see that as harming our soldiers!

I don't think it's any secret that a Dem controlled Congress would not pass any MORE tax cuts, and wouldn't cut SS.

Of course, the Pubs will say the Dems don't have a plan, but I really believe people will say, maybe you're right, but it can't be worse that the Pubs with out a plan either!

I thought it was really funnd when I heard about the Pub ads saying "you don't want to elect a Dem majority because thy will Impeach "W", and cut the ads after less than 2 weeks because they found out that lots of Pubs thought he should be impeached too!!!!!

[ray of light]

6. volunteer to be a democracy savier at the polls

or..

start a party--everyone who brings a copy of their voter reg card or their registration papers for you to turn in comes for movie night or something.

garage sales--have voter registrations with you.

make calls

start an empty seat campaign to get people to the polls. If your car has 5 seats then bring 5 people to vote with you.

get women and young voters involved. They are hurt the most in all this.

[skeeters2525]

18. Ray Of Light Has It

Ray of Light has nailed it perfectly. Stamp those words on every Dems forheads.

Look. We can argue message and crap and it don't mean a thing.

The media will ignore it and just spin whatever bull Repukes make up.

So you have to get involved wherever you live. Get the vote out.

People are pissed and they want change. Simple, get them to the polls.

Or will we argure for the next 100 days like the Gore Nader debacle.

[ray of light]

19. more importantly...we must FOLLOW UP!!! by having a party

AFTER these people get their card in the mail.

In 2004, there was NO FOLLOW UP to make sure these 'registrations' weren't suspiciously missing...

[Stinky The Clown]

7. I wish it were so cut and dried .......

I think what we're doing now, in broad terms, is about right.

There is a national message from Dems. I would distill it to just a few words:

Out of Iraq
Get the economy back on track
Stop the rubber stamping

In the end, when we consider the nature of the electorate and the fact that this is a midterm, this may well be all we need. I think the Great Wurlitzer is wearing thin and the truth is known, even if not acknowledged in the Three Money Media.

Our biggest job is to appear sane. The RW works hard to paint **all** of us as extremists who are out of step with the country. No one who matters is buying that anymore - the exception being those who've sunk to the bottom of the gene pool.

So I rfeally think we just need to fine tune what we're doing, bitch slap a few of our folks who get out of line, and keep a *generally* consistent message going.

Some on our side are whining, pissing, and moaning about some suspected slight of the DNC or the DCCC or the SCCC or the House leader or the Senate leader or .... or .... or ....

Each has a job to do, and, again broadly, they're all pretty much on the same page on the big issues.

What we NEED for the future is a branding effort. Make 'Democrat' mean something and make it mean something attractive and meaningful.

[welshTerrier2]

9. the Democratic gestalt

just for the record, i don't like what i perceive to be vagueness and a poor message on Iraq ... but i want to be very clear that i don't necessarily disagree that, for politics, the Dems MAY have it "about right" ... that very well might be true ...

perhaps all that is needed is a little fine tuning ... i do think something needs to be done because right now the polls seem to be saying that we MAY be coming up just a wee bit short of what we need ...

i've been very torn over the last few months between believing there is a "hidden but overwhelming" Democratic tide versus thinking that the vagueries of the Dem message and an October surprise or two MAY keep us from winning either the House and/or the Senate ... my current "gut" tells me there is only around a 25% chance (i based this on a random number generator program i wrote) that there will be an overwhelming Democratic tide ... right now, and i guess it's both good news and bad news, the "smart money" is on the Dems winning back the House but falling just short in the Senate ...

will a "little tweaking" be enough to win the Senate? i'm really not sure ... i worry that the "anti-republican" sentiment will not dominate local races ... my one exception to this, and there's plenty i don't know about many individual races, is Rhode Island ... there, even though Chafee is popular, i think a real "good old New England" case can be made to "swap parties" and help the Dems regain a majority in the Senate ... elsewhere, it's not clear to me the "national" message, i.e. the "put Dems back in power", is going to be enough ... in the current climate, things are so horrible and the republicans are so responsible that i think we should be doing even better than i think we are ...

good answer, though ... i can't tell you how much i hope you're right ... btw, i also think the Dems are looking to build some party unity and find some common ground ... i didn't like this last business on Iraq at all but it seems to demonstrate that the party elites are very focussed on the national message and willing to make changes if they think it will help ... i hope they do; i'm not confident the status quo will be quite enough ...

[Stinky The Clown]

12. You and I have bounced around before on the 'more or less' thing in terms

of the Dem message.

I recently sent my crystal ball out to be washed and I can't do a damned thing with it ... so this is my unaided opinion (damned crystal ball cleaners ... never can find a good one ... grrrrr)

I think the detailed messaging works very well with the informed part of our base (folks like you and me). I'm less sure it means much too the great, but inattentive, mass of the rest of the Dem base. But it doesn't hurt, either.

As to the country at large, I actually think the detailed message hurts us. It corners us and can easily be spun, even if by no better tactic than an outright lie (I know your response already: 'so, if they're gunna lie, let's start with the truth at least ...'). If we stick with big, strong, themes, and not allow ourselves to have the debate mire down in detailed position statements raised for NO other reason than intentional obfuscation, we're better off. The average voter has this propensity to roll their ears shut when they hear more than 5 seconds on any goven topic. And with no media, we lose every time.

As to the outcome of the midterms ..... like you I'm hopeful, but I am also cautious about it. That said, like my coversation with that neighbor guy who won the MOH, they know the truth out there and they're not liking it one damned bit. Unlke you, I see at least a 50-50 chance of a sweep like the Repubs got in '94. No one wants to say that. The media does not want to paint the Repubs as losers, so they don't mention it. Our side doesn't want to appear overly confident, so they don't mention it. But look around. Even the polls where we trail look better and better for us each week. Just as an example ... Tennessee. Harold Ford was seen as a long shot to take Frist's seat. now more than a few polls show it as a contested race and some even have Ford ahead of each of the three Repub candidates in separate head to head races.

No ... I see the tide going our way. My only question is by how much .....

..... **damn** this crystal ball! :::tap tap tap:::

[welshTerrier2]

14. my advice: always go with your strength ...

look, you stupid clown ... never, never, never ever send a crystal ball out to be cleaned ... did you learn nothing at clown school ... sheesh ...

if you can manage the necessary dexterity, let your nimble digits take a little walk over to clowns-r-us ...

there you will learn that crystal balls should never be sent out for cleaning ... the best way to clean them is to cover them with shaving cream and then shave them as closely as you can ...

i'm confident you can handle this ... always go with your strength ...

50-50 eh? hmmmmmmm ... think i'll groove on that for a while ... i can hear that rumble way off in the distance ... no way to grab hold of any tangible metrics though ... it's all gut ... i can definitely "hear" it; not sure i can "see" it ... on one hand, you get the "all politics is local" argument ... then, of course you have to deal with the October surprise, election fraud and the last 12 years or more of misery ... but i also think there's more than a small element of panic in the population about how incredibly horrible everything has become ...

America's soul is dying and no rovian nonsense can paper over that truth ... the dark cloud hanging over republicans, politically speaking, is that no reasonable person could possibly see much reason for hope with the current macaroons in power ... the October surprise, btw? i am desperately worried that they are going to attack Iran in a significant way and that the Dems, not wanting to give the repubs a "last minute issue", will roll over like puppy dogs trying for a treat ... that would be very painful to watch ...

[Stinky The Clown]

16. "America's soul is dying and no rovian nonsense can paper over that truth"

That's the essence, now isn't it?

The shitstorm rages. People know it is a 'right' wind that blows it in. No matter what their politics, they all feel the dying in their hearts. I alluded to it in this recent post ... just anecdotal .... http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=2720892

As to a war as an October surprise .... I honestly don't think it will work. The country is fully disgusted with war. I also think more than a few Dems will be on the rooftops, yelling.

[welshTerrier2]

17. "As to a war as an October surprise"

i don't think it will work either ... but that's not all that comforting really ... i think the republicans are desperate and that they're likely to try anything ... the status quo sure isn't looking too good for them ...

[lisainmilo]

8. small town

I LIVE IN THE MIDWEST(MISSOURI)....ALL THE CAMPAIGN COMMERCIALS THAT HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED ARE FOR REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES ONLY. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ONE TV COMMERCIAL FOR DEMOCRATS....HAVE DEMS GIVEN UP IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY? I DO KNOW LOCALLY THE CRIME RATE IS GOING UP...DESPERATE TIMES CREATES DESPERATE PEOPLE. I THINK THERE NEEDS TO BE SOME ADVERTISING ON A NATIONAL LEVEL AND LOCAL LEVEL TO GET THE MESSAGE OUT IN A GENERAL WAY THAT CREATES A UNISON MESSAGE AND A MESSAGE OF HOPE AND STRENGTH.
LET US NOT LIVE IN A FEAR BASED WORLD......WE DO HAVE SOLUTIONS TO THE PROBLEMS CREATED BY OUR CURRENT ADMININSTRATION. THE FOCUS NEEDS TO BE ON THE ECONOMY, SOLUTION TO WAR (PLAN TO END)...... PUT AND END TO THE DIVIDE AND CONQUER TACTICS.

I ALSO HAVE A QUESTION IF ANYONE WILL RESPOND.....WHO ARE THE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTORS TO THE REPUBICAN PARTY...I MEAN AS FAR AS GOODS ARE CONCERNED....I WANT TO KNOW WHAT NOT TO BUY...THANKS.

[welshTerrier2]

10. Missouri is looking good ...

hi lisainmilo ... welcome to DU !!!

a friendly tip for DU etiquette: please don't type in all caps ... nasty people will yell at you ...

my understanding is that there are some very positive trends in the Midwest including Missouri ... sorry but i don't know the latest poll info ... maybe someone will post the latest data ...

also, we regularly get threads about not buying from "republican" companies ... i thought we actually had a whole group dedicated to this issue but i couldn't find it ... maybe try the "search" function ... in the meantime, you might want to check out this group: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=353

on edit: the following thread gave this info about the Senate race in Mo:

"MO - This is the closest race of all IMO. I really would not be surprised either way, although I have seen Claire McCaskill ahead of Jim Talent by 2 in the latest poll after a series of ties and back and forths, so I will say. Dem pickup"

here's a link to the thread: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=2750705&mesg_id=2750705

[lisainmilo]

11. ETIQUETTE

thank you..:thumbsup: for info

[welshTerrier2]

15. latest poll information ...

check out this thread in GD: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x1792608

McCaskill is now up by 3 points according to the latest Rasmussen poll ...

[lisainmilo]

21. I have HOPE....

Hope has returned.....Thnx for the update!! :yourock:

[Stinky The Clown]

13. nasty people?

What nasty people?

A website that guides people on who to buy from is buy blue dot com.

[KoKo]

20. All I know is that Howard Dean as DNC Chair has made HUGE Dif...here

in MY STATE! FGS...before Dean got involved NC Dems didn't even have a "Computer List" of who the Dems WERE in their State!

Dean may not be Rham Emmanuel's "cup of tea" or Nancy Pelosi's (I hope she's gone if we regain the "HOUSE" but Howard Dean is the first Dem Chairman of Democratic National Committee to ADDRESS how FAR BEHIND THE REPUGS we WERE AND HAVE BEEN FOR DECADES!

I was "on the ground...going "door to door" for "Kerry/Edwards" and believe me..it was HARD!!!!!!

[opihimoimoi]

22. Simply put, The Dem Party has the Best Odds for a Better Society

Its a No Brainer....