Will we win??? Projections for the 2006 Election

[antiblazer]

http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2006.html

I recently came across this web site and it really alarmed me. It projects that the Democrats will win 4 seats in the Senate and 7 seats in the House. The good news is that the Democrats gain seats in Congress. The bad news is that both are not enough to take back either the Senate or the House. I thought that we had a good chance to take back the House and I still think we can. Perhaps not all the facts are accounted for in these projections or things will change between now and November. (I also think the site is supported by a Repulican)

There's still time! We need to organize and turn out the Dems vote!





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Senate Projections

Current: 55 GOP, 44 DEM, 1 IND
Projected: 51 GOP, 48 DEM, 1 IND
DEM +4, GOP -4








--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
House Projections

Current: 232 GOP, 202 DEM, 1 IND
Projected: 226 GOP, 209 DEM, 0 IND
DEM +7, GOP -6, IND -1










--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Governor Projections

Current: 28 GOP, 22 DEM
Projected: 23 GOP, 27 DEM
DEM +5, GOP -5

[michaelpush]

1. Wrong, No way will GOP win Maine,

Governors race will not be GOP, those maps are bogus....

[TheVirginian]

11. The maps show a Dem winning the Gov race, GOP winning the Sen race.

[michaelpush]

13. sorry, you are right, I could have sworn

I saw a red color on Maine...I am afraid its likely they will hold the Sen position since Snow is almost unbeatable, don't know why, incumbent power most likely, and, the older vote.

[Cosmocat]

2. Yeah ...

I feel real good about the senate ... As few seats that are available at any given time, I think the Ds can make at least a three seat jump ... Not the majority, but close enough to get it done in the next cycle ...

The house ... With all that is going on, there is NO way, that a seven seat swing is acceptable ... I know everyone wants to do the hate Congress, but my rep is OK thing, and I know things have been gerrymandered to the max ... But, I just don't see how, as Fd up as the Rs have things, as Fd up as they have the House, that the people of this country could possible be that oblivious ...

I think it is about 50/50 that enough seats can be swung to get the majority, but I just cannot believe that out of 400+ seats that is does not come at the very least up to the point of breaking even ...

[antiblazer]

7. We should win the House

I agree that with all the House seats available, the Dems really should control the House after November. And this year, it is a pretty easy job to nationalize the elections even though the Repukes want to make it local.

[welshTerrier2]

3. i think Dems can also pickup Rhode Island

RI will go down to the wire ... a "national tide" might just give the Dems a fifth Senate pickup ...

[PaDem]

4. Highly unlikely that we take back either chamber...........

this cycle. It would be both a surprise and a disappointment if we don't make gains in both chambers. A realistic goal is to get close enough in both the house and senate to win a majority i both in 2008.

[dwnforthecount]

5. Ummmm...

This is the VERY first I've heard about Dems not taking back the House, Senate, or both. In fact, most of the latest polls show that the Republican controlled congress is only receiving 15-20% support. Unless all 10-15 are in the swing states, then you ain't got much to worry about. I'm not to worried about HOW MANY PEOPLE support the Dems, I'm worried HOW MANY VOTES from those people will be counted.

[ramapodem]

8. Theres a lot of problems with the map

They leave out a lot of competitive house races like the Weldon vs Sestak( PA- 7) and Fitzpatrick vs Murphy( PA-8) , Stender vs Ferguson( NJ-7th) and the list goes on. Keep the faith.

[Warpy]

6. I can't believe Heather Wilson (R-COW)

will hang onto her seat here in central NM. She's been doing nonstop blitz advertising, showing she's in trouble. Her ads have been exposed as lies. We no longer have touch screen voting machines, which is how she won by the skin of her capped teeth the last time.

We have got to get rid of this worthless neocon.

[Mist]

9. I think projecting Dem Senatorial and Gubernatorial elections in Ohio

is being very optimistic. Ohio is ground zero for corrupt voting machines and corrupt voting officials.

[RDU Socialist]

10. well at least you're being rational

it seems that in Democratic Underground people believe that the rest of the country is as upset about the direction we're heading as a country that they're motivated to vote, when in reality this is simply going to be a base vs. base election. the average american thinks this country is going the wrong way in terms of iraq, but their dissatisfaction with the country's policies isn't strong enough to get them to vote.

the turnout will be insanely low this year, the poisoned atmosphere of american politics have made people more agnostic towards politics as a whole, and simply because people don't like President Bush's handling of his job doesn't mean they're going to vote for a Democrat. It most likely means they're not going to vote at all.

[AtomicKitten]

12. I think this is a gross underestimation of actual Dem projected victories

that is, of course, unless you factor in election fraud.

[JABBS]

14. they predict Chafee will win

and it's not clear that will happen.

[TheVirginian]

15. Nothing is clear in RI, not until 9/12

If Laffey wins the primary, Whitehouse will mop the floor with him. If Chafee wins the primary, the conservatives that are holding out on him during pre-election polling will get behind him. Right now, Chafee is trailing in the polls for two reasons: 1) solid conservatives support Laffey more than Chafee, and 2) the moderates and independents who are Chafee's base, for the most part, aren't politically active enough to care about the election this far out. If, on September 13th, Chafee is the GOP nominee, Reason #1 will be defused, as all conservatives will prefer Chafee to Whitehouse, and Reason #2 will be defused because more moderates and independents who are likely to vote for Chafee will be paying attention.

Its not a longshot for Whitehouse to win; he has a very good chance to win, actually. But he must continue to put the pressure on. Polls that show Whitehouse with a five-point lead are misleading, because that lead will almost automatically dissipate if Chafee wins the primary. Whitehouse needs to keep on the offensive, keep getting his message out, and he and his supporters need to not let up because they think they're in the lead.

[LynneSin]

16. There's a link for Bush Blogs on the site

Scroll down to the very bottom left handside and you'll see the Bush logo and it's called "Bush Blog"

Although I found the site to be a useful resource and I've bookmarked, I hope the site a bit suspect as being a republican endeavor.