Rasmussen: Democrats lead in Ohio

[skipos]

Sherrod Brown (D) 44%
Mike DeWine (R) 42%

Here we go again. For the second time in three consecutive election polls of Ohio's competitive race for U.S. Senate, the Democratic challenger has edged ahead of the Republican incumbent.

Despite the seven-point edge Senator Mike DeWine enjoyed last month, this doesn't look like a statistical blip: before these last three polls, DeWine had not trailed even once. Moreover, our three-poll rolling average shows a relatively stable five-point margin for DeWine earlier in the year that has now tapered to a tie. The race is clearly trending away from the incumbent.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/July%202006/ohioSenate.htm



Ted Strickland (D) 50%
Ken Blackwell (R) 39%

Unlike the U.S. Senate race in the state, Ohio's gubernatorial contest is not showing much movement.

The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll in Ohio shows Democratic Congressman Ted Strickland leading Republican Secretary of State Ken Blackwell 50% to 39% (see crosstabs). Strickland continues to do better among unaffiliated voters and especially moderates, and manages to lure 23% of GOP voters. Blackwell attracts the support of only 9% of Democrats.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/July%202006/ohioGovernor.htm

[YOY]

1. That Brown DeWine race worries me

Sherrod is hands-down the better man regardless of party (but it helps!)

[HughBeaumont]

2. This, again, is Rasmussen.

Most other Ohio polls show Strickland ahead of BootBlackwell by as many as 20 points and Brown ahead of that milquetoast BFEE doormat DeWhine by as many as 8. So take this RW polling palace with a grain of salt.

[mtnester]

3. Exactly, if Rasmussen has DeWhine down

you can bet your sweet bippy the spread is actually bigger.

[HughBeaumont]

5. It's SO wider that what (R)asmussen is saying.

http://www.ohio.com/mld/beaconjournal/news/local/states/ohio/counties/summit_county/15116005.htm
http://www.rawstory.com/news/2006/Santorum_slips_behind_in_new_poll_0724.html

The Columbus Dispatch endorsed the Cabal twice, I might add.

[GOTV]

7. Be careful...

... we always hear that right before we lose* an election.




* As a diebold disclaimer I feel I must point out that when I say "lose" I also include the possibility of loss due to fraud. So there is no need to point out yet again that it's possible that we actually won some elections that were stolen from us. etc,...

[OzarkDem]

10. Yep

The margin is probably still in the 8-10 range, still Sherrod is not taking anything for granted.

Donate today!

http://www.sherrodbrown.com/

[TheVirginian]

9. This is just flat-out untrue.

Rasmussen is not biased in election polling. Stop kidding yourself.

[Benhurst]

4. Another sweep for the Republicans.

I'm sure Diebold will do its job and the corporate media will explain it all to us.

[bullimiami]

6. once again. polling pointless. election rigged.

if you are going to go into the streets and DEMAND justice, like we are seeing in mexico, then ok.
if we are just going to roll over and let them fuck us again. why bother.

mexico played the rigged election / one party game for over 70 years and it is still fighting it.
we well may be watching the end of american democracy.

[EST]

8. I find it rather interesting, in a perverted sort of way,

that Blackwell should garner 9% among democrats.
While it is, no doubt, true that DU is not necessarily representative of democrats as a whole, I find it beyond any possibility that there could be that level of support.

What that tells me is that there is a rather distressing contingent of "false flag" stealth democrats. To support such a crook would seem beyond the pale for law and order dems.
Even a one percent support for Blackbeard the blackguard would appear too high.

[OzarkDem]

11. Agree

That's what makes this poll look suspicious.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. These numbers make so much more sense than the crackpot Dispatch poll

Strickland is not leading by 20 points. Brown is not leading by 8 points. Believe otherwise if you want to. It's no doubt convenient, since words like theft and Diebold fit much nicer into the shoutfest if we embrace looney pre-election polls.

That Dispatch poll had Strickland leading among Democrats 81-2. Nothing is 81-2. I've been charting these polls for a decade and if it's 81-2 it's not a representative sample. Those were unusually loyal Democrats in that mail poll. Plus you had 650 Democrats and 618 Republicans, which is not the typical breakdown of party ID in Ohio.

Rasmussen is an excellent pollster who adjusts based on current form. He enraged DUers in 2004 when his polls seemed to tilt toward Republicans. But check the numbers and he got it right in state after state. Rasmussen adjusted his party ID toward even in 2004. That's what enfuriated DUers who wanted the previous +3 or +4 Democratic edge. But we had it wrong. The party ID was even or close to even according to all the national exit polls. This year Rasmussen has already announced he is using +3.3 Democratic advantage in party ID, which is very generous, IMO, but it accounts for the national mood and the typical dynamic of a president in a second term midterm.