WA Senate: Cantwell (D) 47%, McGavick (R) 43%

[skipos]

"If the election for United States Senate were held today and the candidates were Maria Cantwell, the Democrat or Mike McGavick, the Republican, whom would you vote for?
Maria Cantwell 47%
Mike McGavick 43%
Undecided 10%"

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/washington_poll_063006.htm

I feel like WA is the best chance for a GOP pick up, though I have not seen any polls with McGavick ahead. Her overall approval ratings are OK, though I know her votes have irritated many dems. What do you think?

[MadMaddie]

1. I am not happy with some of her votes but we have to hold onto

the seat...so I will be voting for her....

[Mythsaje]

2. Yup...me too...

I'd rather have my fingers torn off by a crazed robot than vote for any Repug here.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. Hey, you gave McGavick a bonus point in the header

It's 43%, not 44%.

And let's not underestimate the value of 1% in Washington. Cantwell can attest to that based on her '00 recount win. Likewise Gregoire in '04.

I think Cantwell will pull this out. She's in much better shape than I would have anticipated a year ago.

It's interesting to look at the Democratic presidential preference at the bottom of the Strategic Vision polls. For someone who is the second betting favorite for the nomination, Mark Warner gets remarkably low support. Obviously it's name recognition. Warner is at 1% in Washington. I don't think I've since him above 6% in any of the recent SV statewide surveys.

[skipos]

5. Thanks, I edited it.

As for Warner, no one is really paying attention yet.

[Moloch]

51. I don't trust Strategic Vision....

their polls always seem to favor republicans, even more so than rasmussen or fauxnews.

[saltpoint]

4. This is one we've got to keep in the blue column. I hope these

numbers hold up.

If it's a squeaker, let it be a blue flag at the finish line.

[BanzaiBonnie]

6. She is a politician

She blows with the wind. I would like to see her in person sometime. I could get a better read on her as a person.

[pnwmom]

28. I've seen her in person, and I liked her. She seems much warmer

than on TV, and she's a good listener and thinker.

Friends of mine, who used to work closely with her at Microsoft, strongly support her.

You should try to hear her speak sometime, if you're able to.

[DELUSIONAL]

7. I'm voting Mark Wilson in the Democratic primary

and if that bitch wins the democratic primary -- I won't vote for anyone for Senator.

I will be damned if I vote for a DINO.

[skipos]

10. I can't vote in this race

but I look at it differently. I'll be damned if I let republicans continue to ruin America. One of the best chances we have in stopping their damage is a democratic majority and all the leadership positions and additional power that comes with it. Even if we have Senators like the Nelsons and Lieberman, America will be better off with a democratic majority. If I sat by and let a republican win without doing everything I could about it, I couldn't live with myself.

[pnwmom]

11. You'd rather vote for a Green/Libertarian. Because that's what he is.

[DELUSIONAL]

13. He's against the Iraq invasion

Cantwell is a craswell in a DINO suit.

Right now Mark Wilson is the better option -- Cantwell helped bush get his supreme court choices and she has helped him all along.

She is NOT a democrat -- a vote for Cantwell is a GOP vote.

and I will NOT vote DINO. I also won't vote GOP -- I'll just skip and NOT vote.

She does not respond to the voters -- she got in by a razor thin majority -- and she has slapped those of us who have voted for her in all her national runs -- so bitch Cantwell -- you don't get me vote ever again.

[pnwmom]

20. You obviously don't know Craswell. She's a Christian fundamentalist.

She is about as far from Cantwell, the former Microsoftie, as you can get.

Cantwell is actually one of the more progressive members of the Senate. Based on her overall voting record, ProgressivePunch puts her among the top twenty, just below Feingold. (www.progressivepunch.com)

Cantwell is also a first term Democrat in a swing state. Her difficult job is to represent eastern Washington as well as western Washington, liberals as well as conservatives. I didn't like some of her votes, but that would never stop me from voting for her in the GENERAL ELECTION. We are far better off having her in office, and being one vote closer to achieving a Senate majority, than we would be if a Republican took her place.

[DELUSIONAL]

22. I know Craswell -- and Cantwell has the same attitude

toward her constituents -- doesn't give a damned what we want.

Sorry Cantwell will NOT get another vote from me. And Craswell (is she still alive??) never got a vote from me.

I just don't vote for GOP -- even the ones calling themselves democrats.

[pnwmom]

25. Maria Cantwell's constituents live in Spokane, and the tri-cities, and

Puyallup, and Pullman, and Pierce and Kitsap counties, etc., not just in the Seattle and King County area.

She has to represent all her constituents, not just some of them. That's not an easy job in a state like ours.

I prefer the primary challenger's positions on Iraq -- but there's no way I wouldn't add my vote to Maria Cantwell's column in the general. In fact, I"ve been donating to her campaign. If the Republicans maintain their hold on the Senate because Cantwell loses, I won't have myself to blame.

[DELUSIONAL]

49. I promised her if she would support the filibuster against

Roberts -- then I would vote for her. Since she did not support the filibuster and allowed Roberts to be appointed -- she lost my vote.

I will not vote for her.

She is having problems now because it is nearly impossible to tell her apart from other GOPigs.

[pnwmom]

56. If you can't tell her apart from the Repubs, then maybe you should

get some glasses. Or try reading her actual record. Here's a place you could start.

http://www.ontheissues.org/senate/Maria_Cantwell.htm

You appear to care about the Supreme Court. Our most liberal Supreme Court Justice is in his late eighties. Do you want a Republican majority to be in the Senate when it is the next time to vote on a Supreme Court confirmation?

I urge you to rethink your plan to spite all of the Democrats in the country because you disapprove of a vote that didn't go your way. (And, even worse, on an issue that was doomed to fail even if she had voted to your liking.)

We need to retain every Democratic Senator we can and to defeat a number of incumbant Republicans, too. We can't afford another two years with Repubs maintaining their lock on the Senate and the House.

[spindrifter]

8. McGavick changed his campaign

manager and is expecting to get beaucoup Rethug bucks to help him out. He also has a considerable amount of his own money, thanks to his Safeco Ins. golden parachute, but say, who wants to spend his own money when there are crumbs from the fund raiser dinners to munch on.
All in all, we have to hope that Cantwell will start listening to her constituency instead of some distant D.C. drummer boys and girls.

[pnwmom]

31. Who is her constituency? Only people in the Seattle area? Only liberals?

She represents a big state, and a very divided state, a state with an incredibly close vote in the recent Governor's race. Pleasing this constituency CANNOT be an easy job.

I was upset about her Iraq vote, but I'm grateful to her for her work on environmental issues and the Enron debacle. We're far better off than we would be with a Republican in her position.

[rucky]

9. Maybe if Cantwell wasn't such a DINO... n/t

[pnwmom]

12. She's not a DINO. She's one of the most progressive Senators.

Check out www.progressivepunch.com

[Hawkowl]

27. Cantwell is a DINO

She is arrogant and doesn't give a damn what we think in Washington. I too will not vote for her if she wins in the primary. She voted to confirm Alito and then and the LYING GALL TO SEND OUT A CAMPAIGN LETTER STATING SHE OPPOSED HIM. She is a hypocrite and a liar and she is not progressive. I would cut off my arm before I voted rethuglican and she has sided too many times with them. She disgusts me. Democrat pols have to get it through their thick cement heads that first they need to appeal to the base, then the center, then they can go whoring for money with the rethuglicans.

[pnwmom]

29. You would cut off your arm before you would vote for a Repub, and

yet you would step aside and DO NOTHING to prevent a Repub from replacing Cantwell in the Senate -- which could help Repubs maintain their hold on the majority.

How logical.

[Hawkowl]

35. Principles

I will no longer vote for someone because they are the lesser of two evils. She didn't have to vote to confirm Alito--she could've at the very least abstained. I contacted her office about confirming Kindasleezy Rice, and the fact that she lied repeatedly about 9/11-- and she voted to confirm her. She has no principles-no party loyalty and thus she deserves none. If she is going to rubberstamp the Fuehrer's actions then she might as well be a rethuglican. As for ANWR I will put my trust in the true Democrat Senators that will use the filibuster (which she refused to join when Kerry was looking for support against Alito).

She will not get my vote because she votes as IF SHE IS A REPUBLICAN and is unapolegtic and in fact offers no rationale for her votes whatsoever. She lies about her record and her staff is completely unsympathetic. She is trying to compete for Republican voters and it will be a losing strategy.

[pnwmom]

37. She doesn't vote like a Republican. Her voting record is FAR more

liberal than ANY Republican, and of more than half of the Democrats. Her voting record on progressive issues is just below Feingold, according to Progressive Punch.

www.progressivepunch.com

[lumberjack_jeff]

54. Maybe we're just spoiled having Patty to compare her to. n/t

[pnwmom]

57. I know what you mean. Patty Murray is great.

Seems like the genuine article.

[Clarkansas]

47. Principles?!? !?! ?!? !?! ?!? !?! ?!? !?! ?!? !?! ?!? !?! ?!?

You would make Washington suffer by doing nothing to stop a McGavick who, unlike Cantwell, will probably NEVER vote the way any of us would like? Her Iraq and Alito votes are bad, but at least Cantwell OFTEN votes like democrat. You would make the rest of the country suffer a greater republican majority in the senate?

Priciples my ass.

It's called cutting off your nose to spite your face. But unfortunately the rest of us have to deal with your descision.

And if you think she generally votes like a republican, you need to do some research. She has voted poorly on some big issues, but her voting record is good overall. If you think she is bad, you are going to think McGavick is absolutely horrible.

It sounds like you have no interest in looking at the big picture of her voting record or what a McGavick win would so to the rest of us, and that is a shame.

[w4rma]

46. Cantwell is ****Definitely not**** a DINO. Although I'm sure Repugs would

like you to think that about her while they tell their own base that she is some sort of godless liberal. Naive.

[pnwmom]

55. Cantwell voted AGAINST the confirmation. Somebody else with "lying gall"

must be spreading that rumor that she voted to confirm him.

In fact, Cantwell voted against confirming both Alito and Roberts.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maria_Cantwell

"Citing his potential views on abortion and the environment, Cantwell was one of 22 senators to vote against United States Supreme Court nominee John Roberts.

"In December 2005 Cantwell scored what many perceived as one of the strongest victories of her first term when she blocked Alaska senator Ted Stevens' efforts to drill in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Stevens attached the measure to a bill which provided money for defense spending and Hurricane Katrina recovery efforts. Cantwell managed to round up the votes of 41 Democrats and 2 Republicans, enough to block a final vote. <4> Stevens removed the ANWR measure from the larger bill, but promised to bring the matter up at a later date.

"In January 2006, after publicly announcing her opposition to Supreme Court nominee Samuel Alito, Cantwell, along with 18 other Democrats and all 53 present Republicans, voted for the cloture motion.<5> The success of this motion ended an unlikely attempt to filibuster the confirmation of Judge Alito that was being led by Senator John Kerry and Senator Ted Kennedy. <6> Alito was confirmed the next day by a vote of 58-42, with most Democrats, including Cantwell, voting against."

Understand? She voted for cloture, which cut off a filibuster, because Kerry and Kennedy couldn't drum up enough votes to win in the long run. But she then voted AGAINST Alito's confirmation.

[rucky]

44. I didn't realize...

also this site: http://www.ontheissues.org/senate/Maria_Cantwell.htm

there seems to be some conflicting information going around about how she voted for Alito & Roberts.

[pnwmom]

50. Thank you, Rucky. I was looking for that site, but I hadn't bookmarked

it and couldn't remember the name.

Maybe some of the people who distort Cantwell's record have some other motive . . . like helping her opponent.

[pnwmom]

26. ProgressivePunch puts her just below Feingold, in terms of her vote record

www.progressivepunch.com

[TheVirginian]

14. I almost agree...

I think New Jersey is the strongest chance for a GOP pickup, but I think Mike McGavick is a much better candidate than Tom Kean Jr. is. Kean has all the right pieces, but he can't seem to put them together to really drive his campaign home. McGavick is a lot smarter and a lot better than anyone thought he'd be, since the #1 pick of the GOP, Dino Rossi, sat this race out, and poll numbers like this prove it. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a month or two that actually has McGavick tied with or above Cantwell, though I don't think she'll ultimately lose.

This is an interesting race to watch, just because a solid candidate has turned a negligible race into a potential for upset (like Jim Webb in Virginia or even Ned Lamont in Connecticut). And because of that, little things matter, like a minor primary challenge and a Green Party candidate running third-ballot. All of these things which wouldn't matter in a regular election are now factors that could change things because of McGavick's stellar campaign.

[snowbear]

16. You've gotta be CRAZY !!!!

Did you see that lunic Kean debating Menedez the other night ?!?!?!?!

LOL !!!!!

If he has any supporters left after that, I'd be surprised !!

Seriously, try to locate it on C-Span if you haven't seem it yet.

Kean was LOST, CONFUSED, DAZED, and didn't have a coherent response to one single question from the moderator or from Menendez.

Kean got his ass handed to him on a platter!

[TheVirginian]

18. Prepare to be surprised, then.

Kean's not going to go away because you think he had a bad night. The reality of the situation is that Bob Menendez is a vulnerable incumbent and Tom Kean is a top-tier recruit.

[Awsi Dooger]

17. You'll also have a very energized GOP base in Washington

They're convinced Rossi was robbed of the '04 gov race. I was following that recount via a couple of local Washington blogs that were extremely sophisticated, with computer projections of the numbers in every county. The projected Rossi margin was always between 2500 and 6000 votes until outstanding votes were found in King County, eventually putting Gregoire narrowly over the top.

Now, I'm sure it was legit but you can imagine the fury around here if several thousand votes were suddenly discovered during a recount, and in the friendliest county toward the other side. That was basically the reaction on those local blogs, one of which was slightly left leaning but the other one heavy right. We'll need a stronger than typical midterm GOTV in Washington this year.

[TheVirginian]

19. As well as a somewhat depressed Democratic base

Support for Cantwell has never been particularly high... I believe the latest Strategic Vision numbers give her a 47% approval rating, and with the presence of both a primary challenger and a third-party candidate, this race might go places where Cantwell wish it wouldn't.

[pnwmom]

32. Those GOP's were arguing that hand-counts weren't as accurate as

machine counts! I think in that race in Washington, we got just a taste of what we could have all over the U.S. next time around. The Repubs will do anything to hold back our votes.

[pnwmom]

23. It was a very tight win for Cantwell the first time around. We elect

lots of Republicans on a state-wide basis, because this is a closely divided state.

That's why Democrats need to pull together to put her over the top, and quit whining about various votes that they disagreed with, or pretending that she is a DINO. She may not be as liberal as some of the liberal Seattleites want her to be, but that doesn't make her a DINO .

[Hawkowl]

36. I live in Vancouver

So does that screw up your theory about liberal Seattleites? All Democrats do need to pull together. Usually it is a leaders job to point the way--rubber stamping the Pres is not leadership or Democratic party loyalty. Unfortunately, she has not gone along a lot of times with the other Democrat Senators. She has screwed herself.

Take our other Senator for example, Patty Murray. I don't always agree with her positions, but she is an honest and principled Democrat. Fights for traditional democrat American values. Cantwell doesn't.

[pnwmom]

38. Democrats don't constitute a majority in this state.

We can't win without help from enough moderates and independents.

[Hawkowl]

39. Off year election

Again, moderates and independents tend to sit out non presidential elections. Look at the republican strategy: turn out 100% of your hardcore base that is 33% of the electorate and forget trying to win over "moderate" democrats. This strategy of rallying the base is a proven winner. I disagree with your theory that Democrat candidates need to move to the center on issues to garner moderate and independents. What Dem candidates need to do is stand on principle. Loudly and proudly on principle. This is what wins over moderates and independents. Not some namby-pamby, nuanced, waffly, flip flopping, pandering, have your cake and eat it too bullshit. A lot of the electorate equates a forceful stance with strong leadership and principles. The people respect that approach and it gets votes. Chase two rabbits and you catch neither.

[pnwmom]

40. All that may be fine in theory, especially when selecting

a primary candidate, but sitting out the election just helps the Republicans, whom you claim to loathe, remain in power. And whatever you say about Cantwell, her record is far more liberal than any Republican in the Senate.

[Hawkowl]

41. Dino

If I wanted a pro war, pro patriot act, Alito supporting, rubber stamp Senator I'd vote for the Republican candidate. I don't. I voted for Cantwell before and now I won't. I have principles. She violates the most important of mine. Granted the Republicans violate all of them, but again I will not vote anymore for the lesser of two evils. Why? Because some day I hope to vote for a candidate whom I respect and admire, and I believe the only way this will happen is to hold our representatives accountable. Don't take your base for granted.

[pnwmom]

42. Ted Stevens must love people like you, whose principles

could help him to spread oil exploration equipment all over federal lands in Alaska.

[AX10]

43. I agree. Cantwell is much better than any Tepug.

[snowbear]

15. If Washingtonians saw what R-Ted Stevens of Alaska is doing to Maria...

You'd be SICK, SICK, SICK.

No one wants her out more than Ted Stevens of Alaska. He's hosting mega $$$ FUNDRAISERS $$$ for McGavick with filthy rich oil companies up here raising tons of money to try and oust her.

Stevens CANNOT stand her because she's been such a thorn in his side as far as ANWR drilling goes.



If those of you in WA could see what these guys are saying and doing up here... you wouldn't be so quick to slam her by calling her a DINO.
You might as well just hand the win to McGavick if you feel that way.

[pnwmom]

21. Repub Ted Stevens knows she's no DINO. That's why he's after her.

I think that a lot of the Cantwell slammers on these boards are actually from out of state, and don't know anything about the issues here, or the chasm between the eastern and western parts of the state -- that Maria has to try to bridge.

Thanks for your post, larissa. Cantwell has done a lot of good in her votes to protect the Alaskan wilderness AND in her work on the Enron situation. I think a lot of people may not realize how effective she has been.

But Stevens does. And that's why he wants her out.

[Hawkowl]

30. Dino

Maybe if she actually listened to her base she would be doing better in the polls. It is a non presidential election. That means, usually, that the party with the more highly energized base wins it. She should've seen this coming six years ago. Time to pay the piper liar.She has no base because she has pissed it away by voting too many times with the rethuglicans. So now the average voter can't tell the difference and her disdain for hardcore democrats will be reciprocated. She will lose. If she squeaks by she should pull her head out of her ass for next time.

[pnwmom]

34. If the average voter can't tell the difference between Cantwell and

a Republican, then the average voter is pretty ignorant.

But I think the average voter in this state is smarter than that. And that he or she cares strongly about the environment and appreciates Cantwell's votes to preserve the Alaskan wilderness and the waters of the Puget Sound.

[Awsi Dooger]

33. Great stuff

We need more local knowledge reports like that around here. Even more reason to hate Ted Stevens.

Look at it this way; if Cantwell loses it's probably at least a dozen years, if not more, before we get a legit crack at replacing her. How many freshman senators lose? Not too damn many. McGavick is a young guy and hardly a goof. Sorry, I'll chose Cantwell regardless of her label instead of hoping a more liberal Democrat can knock off incumbent McGavick two or three cycles down the road.

[Placebo]

24. Woo-hoo!

Another one for our side! :patriot:

[TheVirginian]

45. ....I'm not sure you get what's going on here

Cantwell is already on our side, and her Republican challenger is polling within four points of her, which is effectively within the margin of error, which can be considered a statistical tie. This means that Cantwell is vulnerable. Three months ago, she was polling at twelve points up. Two months ago, ten points up. One month ago, seven points up. Now she's four points up. This is a race to be concerned about.

[pnwmom]

52. It would be interesting to know whether the changing numbers

are due to disaffected democrats, or to independents being drawn to the Republican side. The media downplays the conservatism of the challenger, and Ted Stevens is helping to raise a lot of money for him.

[stumblnrose]

48. No Option Unfortunately

Have to vote for lesser evil because of the greater evil which is created by even a one vote majority in congress these days. however i have little love left for liberals after living in this state for some time.

[lumberjack_jeff]

53. I find McGavick's ads to be ironic in the extreme

Paraphrased: "government is all screwed up - vote for yet another Republican to fix it."

On a scale of 1-10 Maria gets a 2.

Sadly, ANY Republican gets a 1.

[pnwmom]

58. You're giving them too much credit. They off the scale.