RI Senate: Whitehouse (D) 38%, Chafee (R) 37%

[skipos]

"38 percent say they will vote for Sheldon Whitehouse, 37 percent support Senator Chafee, and 25 percent are undecided (compared to Chafee’s lead of 40 to 34 percent in February)."

"If the Republican nominee is Mayor Laffey, Whitehouse is ahead by 55 to 25 percent (up from the 44 to 29 percent Whitehouse had in February)."

http://www.insidepolitics.org/Rel606.html

In addition to the possible pickups of PA, MT, MO and OH (http://electionpredictions.blogspot.com indicates this) a RI pick up would mean we are 1 seat away from a majority. While Chafee is one of the least destructive republicans in the senate, a dem pick up here would be great since 1. Whitehouse is more progressive than Chafee, 2. it brings us one step closer to a majority and the leadership & committee benefits that come with it.

Polls have indicated that Laffey may get the republican nomination, which would be GREAT for Whitehouse and anyone who wants a democratic majority.

Progressive minded folks should support Laffey in the repub primary and Whitehouse in the general election.

[Doctor_J]

1. 25% U

Don't they usually tend to vote incumbent? This is certainly good news, but needs to get better before November.

That list also doesn't figure in TN, which I think Harold can carry. And of course VT.

And why the hell would RI GOP nominate Laffey? A death wish? Laffey - this year's Alan Keyes.

[skipos]

2. Republicans ARE going to vote for Laffey, polls indicate that

the problem is that ill informed dems and independents may switch party affiliation to vote for incumbent Chafee, not realizing opportunity they are passing up to have a more progressive senator (Whitehouse) and a democratic majority.

[Doctor_J]

4. Yeah, that's what I meant

I didn't say it clearly, but if it's Whitehouse v. Chaffee and it's 37-36 w/ 25 U on Nov 1, I would bet Chaffee pulls it out. Need to get Whitehouse up over 50% by 11/1.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

3. Vermont is, by all means, already in our column. (nt)

[Doctor_J]

5. I figured.

I hope Thom will still have Friday "Brunch with Senator Bernie come January.

[Tiggeroshii]

7. I think they are coming to the conclusion they can't trust chaffee.

Rhode Island's mostly liberal voters are probably not liking how Chaffee's been representing them. His opponent in the primary is far more popular and conservative than Chaffee, and could pose a real threat to his incumbency.

[SteppingRazor]

17. They'll vote for Laffey for the same reason we'd vote for Lamont...

because they see Chafee as a dupe and a turncoat, and they want him out.

[Tiggeroshii]

6. 5 seats won't give us a majority.

Cheney breaks the tie if it is, we'd need 6. Virginia would be the most likely to be the 6th and Webb is already within 5 points of Allen.

[skipos]

13. I said

that 5 (PA, MT, OH, MO, RI) seats would mean we are 1 seat away from a majority. I probably didn't say it very clearly. I do that a lot. :crazy:

[Tiggeroshii]

20. Yeah.

And I'm thinking our candidates in all those states as well as Virginia will pick up significant leads as the election nears.

[TheVirginian]

26. Tennessee is a lot more likely than Virginia.

[Tiggeroshii]

28. Are you saying that just because it is an open seat?

Ford hasn't come close to as close to his likely challengers as Webb has with Allen last I checked. I guess though since it's an open seat, Ford's challenger won't have the kinds of advantages for survival like Allen does.

[TheVirginian]

30. What polls have you been looking at?

Zogby's poll that has Webb within five points of Allen is most definately an outlier. Rasmussen has Webb ten points down, and SurveyUSA has Webb an astonishing 17 points down. And both of those polls are more recent than the Zogby poll.

Meanwhile, every poll done in Tennesee shows Ford down by no more than five points against the strongest GOP candidate, Bob Corker.

Other advantages include the fact that there is no incumbent in Tennessee, whereas George Allen is a current Senator, former Governor, former Representative, and former Delagate. Jim Webb, for all of his netroots appeal, hasn't been a proven quantity in terms of fundraising, and significantly trails Allen ($230K to $7.1 million) in cash on hand, where Harold Ford is a great fundraiser and has attracted big names to help him raise money. Finally, Ford is a savvy politician, and comes from a political family, where Webb is running in his first ever campaign, and shows signs of being a novice.

I'm not saying that Webb has no chance, but everything points to Tennessee being a stronger opportunity for a pick-up than Virginia.

[Tiggeroshii]

31. That's true

I do remember seeing some polls showing Ford really picking up against those guys.

[TheVirginian]

32. Corker 46%, Ford 42%

[Tiggeroshii]

33. Is that zogby?

[TheVirginian]

34. Yes

The only other recent TN SEN poll I've seen is one done by Rasmussen on May 1st, which shows Ford down from 4 to 9 points against the GOP candidates.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/May%202006/Tennessee%20Senate%20May.htm

[Tiggeroshii]

35. That's still(4-9%), imho, within a biting distance...

[TheVirginian]

36. Its pre-primary, though.

Whoever wins the GOP primary is going to get an automatic bounce, especially if its Corker (which its shaping up to be), since Corker is more moderate than Bryant and Hilleary.

I wouldn't be surprised if Bob Corker won the primary and the first post-primary poll shows him with a ten point lead over Ford.

[iconoclastNYC]

8. Get out the veto pen dubya

You're going to be using it.

[Clarkansas]

9. I wasn't expecting this!

Go Whitehouse!

[ruggerson]

10. How's Ford doing in TN?

[skipos]

14. Zogby has it like this (June 13th)

Ford (D)42%
Bryant (R)42%

Ford (D)41%
Hilleary (R)43%

Ford (D)42%
Corker (R)46%

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1125

[NJ Democrats]

11. The same poll shows

Whitehouse crushing Carl Sheeler 60-8.

[autorank]

12. End of the "liberal" Republican.

This would be it, done, finished. Only Collins and Snowe to go, and whoever is up next will be gone.

I remember Jacob Javits, R, NY and Charles Mathias, R, MD, two real liberal Republicans for the most part.

There is no place for diversity in that party. Pretty soon, McCain will qualify as a liberal Republican...

:rofl:

[FreeStateDemocrat]

15. Charles Mathias, R, MD defeated by the more liberal Paul Sarbannes D, MD

R.I. should up-grade like MD did in voting for a true liberal senator.

[autorank]

16. Sarbanes is one of the best ever. Shows that MD had a real choice.

High quality individuals with progressive views.

Now what do we have...

[RFKHumphreyObama]

19. Actually Senator Mathias was not defeated

Charles Mathias served in the US Senate until his retirement in 1987. Barbara Mikulski defeated Republican wing nut Linda Chavez :puke: to succeed him

[kentuck]

18. Chafee cannot be trusted...

get a Democrat in his place.

[TheVirginian]

21. I wonder how much a bump Chafee will get when (or if) he wins the primary

These polls can give us a decent snapshot of how the campaigns are going, but especially in states where there's both a competitive primary and a competitive general election, pre-primary polls really don't mean that much because the party generally coalesces behind the nominee as chosen by the primary. Whitehouse winning 38-37 means that there's an astonishing 25% of voters who haven't made up their mind. Undoubtedly, most of those are independents who are weighing their options and watching the campaigns closely. But a lot of those votes are also Republicans who support Laffey, and in a two-man race not including Laffey, aren't sure they'll vote. Most of these types come to after the primary.

The same is true in other states with two competitive elections. There was only a little sense of how strong a candidate Webb was until after he won the primary and there's no way to really gauge any TN GOP candidate because they're all fighting each other.

This is encouraging news, especially in the sense that this will lead to press releases and increased fundraising for Whitehouse. But the worst mistake to make is to assume that Chafee is now the underdog.

[Awsi Dooger]

24. Chafee is still the favorite

I can tell you that from the betting lines along with common sense. Just look at his good or excellent number of 51%. Not great but compare it to the statewide mood toward Bush, a comical 20% giving him good or excellent marks.

Republicans are not going to be masochistic enough to evict their own incumbent in a state like Rhode Island, in favor of a candidate who would be much weaker in the general election. I simply refuse to believe that. It would be like us kicking out Nelson in Nebraska. Might sound great while we're reviewing the resume of the much more progressive Democratic nominee, then you get to November and 50s turn into 30s in a hurry, and like Mickelson on 18 you wonder what the heck you were thinking.

[TheVirginian]

25. An interesting question to ponder

There are a lot of interesting comparisons to be made between Ned Lamont and Stephen Laffey. I wonder, if Joe Lieberman faced a serious Republican challenger in CT, like Chafee has in Whitehouse, and Lamont were to be assured of a loss if he won the primary, would DU support Lieberman in order to win a majority, or support Lamont out of principle, even if it means potentially sacrificing the majority?

[Awsi Dooger]

27. Excellent question

I hadn't thought of that hypothetical. If we were sitting at 47 or 48 senate seats and takeover seemed more feasible if not the favorite, I think there would be increased caution about dumping Lieberman, in your scenario. Given where we are I honestly don't think much would change. DUers like to focus on candidates first, with a relentless thumbs up or thumbs down, and thoughts of their election prospects are a distant second. There would be threads insisting if Lamont can come from 30 points down to win the primary against an incumbent then certainly he can win a general election in a deep blue state. Lieberman's biggest proplem on DU came when Zell retired.

[skipos]

29. "Republicans are not going to be masochistic enough"

never underestimate the inability of people to see the big picture. The best thing Chafee has going for him is the fact that progressive independents and democrats who have more in common with Whitehouse, and would prefer a democratic majority, vote for Chafee in the republican primary because they aren't looking at the big picture.

Just as there are many people here who think a "real progressive" like Feingold could win in Nebraska, there are many republicans who feel a "real conservative" like Laffey could win in RI.

A senator hasn't won the presidency in 40 years (IMO there are many logic reasons why) but how many DUers won't give a shit and support a senator for the 08 nomination? For the last few decades our southern candidates (Clinton, Carter, Gore) have had better electoral results than our nothern ones (Kerry, Dukakis, Mondale) but how many DUers won't give a shit and support a northerner for the 08 nomination?

How many people making 30,000 a year vote for republicans because of "taxes?" Bush has factually increased hostility towards America around the world, and admits that he doesn't think about Osama anymore, but how many people voted for Bush because he made him feel "safer?" How many people voted for Bush because they'd like to have a beer with him?!?

Most people, like Colbert, use their gut and not their head when they vote. My hope is that there many republicans come out for the RI primary and vote with their gut for Laffey

[samsingh]

22. with a name like Whitehouse, should'nt victory be in the bag?

[snowbear]

23. LOL.. you would think so!

And I keep telling you guys... and you won't listen...

...but mark my words, Harold Ford, Jr. is going to win in Tennessee.

You'll see.

[samsingh]

37. i don't know - i hope the dems can pull out a victory for the house

and senate