Parsing the Polls: Presidential erosion

[n2doc]

Parsing the Polls: Presidential Erosion
It's not news to political junkies that President George W. Bush's job-approval ratings have hovered in the 30s for much of the last year.

But there's been little empirical evidence that allows us to answer questions about where, demographically speaking, that erosion in public support has occurred most. Is it simply that those moderate Republicans and GOP-leaning independents -- voters who swallowed their doubts about Bush to support him in 2004 -- have since returned to their more accustomed spot on the political fence? Or does the drop in numbers represent a Republican base that's increasingly disenchanted by the Bush administration's stance on immigration and other hot-button issues? A recent Pew poll provides us with some answers to those questions, based on a sample of 3,204 adults -- a group large enough for us to gain real insight into how different groups' views on the President have changed since the last time Pew conducted a similar survey in December 2004. The Pew survey, it should be noted, was in the field from April 27 to May 22 -- well before the supposed uptick in Bush's political fortunes following the death of Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi and his surprise visit to Baghdad.

Let's parse the polls!

(snip)

Beyond the overall job-approval number, the demographic details within the poll are the most enlightening.

The president's job-approval rating has dropped in every region of the country, level of income, education level, and age group, but the slippage is particularly pronounced among self-identified moderate Republicans. Eighty-one percent of this group gave the president positive marks in December, while just 56 percent did the same in May -- a precipitous 25-point decline that outpaced the 20-point drop (89 percent in December '04, 69 percent now) among Republicans overall.

The numbers are less stark when it comes to President Bush's conservative base, but perhaps even more worrisome for Republicans hoping to hold the House and Senate in the fall. The president's job approval among self-identifying conservatives has slipped from 93 percent in December 2004 to 78 percent in May. But Courtney Kennedy and Michael Dimock, authors of Pew's own analysis, pointed out that the smaller dropoff is somewhat misleading. "There are far more conservatives than moderates in the GOP; as many as two-thirds of Republicans identify themselves as conservatives," the duo wrote. "Translated into real numbers, just as many conservative Republicans as moderate and liberal Republicans have grown frustrated with the president's leadership over the past year and a half."

More:

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2006/06/parsing_the_polls_presidential.html

[Minnesota Libra]

1. Good, I hope their votes reflect that displeasure in November.............

....and, thereby, return the Congress to the Dems so we can shut Cheney and Rumsfeld down. We have to be ready with impeachment proceedings for Bush and Cheney as soon as the end of January.

[Davis_X_Machina]

2. What worries me...

...is that some of those conservative Republicans who flipped flipped because George isn't ruthless enough -- hasn't started the carpet-bombing of Sadr City, isn't executing ten Iraqis for every one American killed, isn't patrolling the border with AC-130's, hasn't sent Michael Moore to Gitmo, etc.

That's what scares me.

[JNelson6563]

3. Good article

Thanks for sharing this.

:kick: