Fighting Dem Vets – Update and Prospects State by State

[trillian]

Cross posted from http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/6/18/1324/12857">Kos

Where do the Fighting Dem Vets Stand? – Update and Prospects State by State


The fighting dem vets are alive and well. Here is the current count as best I can make out from the most recent survey. Anyone having information please let us know. You can check the latest "Fighting Dem "Muster Roll" here: Fighting-Dems.com. The main page has a chart detailing what is summarized below. Note that losses can be counted in two ways: 1) losses of individual candidates and 2) loss of a Senate or Congressional seat. If a vet withdraws to support another vet or losses to a vet, the district is not lost.

DISCLAIMER: I am a volunteer, not a professional politician or statistician. I do this in the dark of night or in the cracks between classes at the university. So it would be appreciated if any errors of omission or commission would sent to [e-mail]. So be kind in your devastating critiques.


ON THE UP SIDE (FDs who will run in the GE actually or if they win a primary):
Go to Fighting-Dems.com for the latest update of the chart.

That means that currently some five dozen vets are running.

61 FDs on the front lines for 60 districts in 26 states.
43 FDs advancing to GE including 30 nominees and 13 unopposed in primaries.
18 FDs facing primaries in 17 districts

Summary: 43 to 60 FDs, barring serious mishaps, will challenge Republican incumbents for Senatorial or House of Representative seats. Another 1 -17 Fighting Dems may run if they win in their primaries. A figure at around 45-50 vets is a reasonable projection (if about half of them win) – four dozen vets running. We need 15 seats to win back the House.

ON THE DOWN SIDE (vets redeployed, withdrew, or went down in battle. Now these FDs will be transferred from the "Muster Roll" to the "Honor Roll"). Hope my math is not messed up, this is on the run:

8 "Strategic Withdrawals"
1 non-strategic withdrawal.
4 Fighting Dem vets attacking GOP stronghold (1 NH, 2 PA, 1 WI)
4 non-vet Fighting Dems attacking GOP stronghold: 4 (1 VA, 1 MT, 1 OH, 1 FL)
1 other withdrawal (NC)
20 Lost primary, caucus or runoff bids:
To another vet: 4 (2 CA, 1 TX, 1 VA)
To non-vets: 12 (2 CA, 5 OH, 1 IN, 2 KY, 1 MS, 2 TX, 1 WV, 1 PA, TN )

Summary: Of the original number of 90 vets running, 30, or one-third, are no longer in the race. However, 8 of this number were "strategic withdrawals" to make way for another vet, so it involved no loss of district challenges. An additional 4 strategic withdrawals were to non-vets for a total of 12 seats that cannot be considered a "loss" when the FDs withdrew in favor of these candidates, vets or non-vets. In addition, a number of vets ran against each other in primaries and therefore it was a foregone conclusion that only one could win. The loss of these individuals did not necessarily involve a district loss unless all the vets running lost. For example, 2 FDs lost out in CA-52 to other vets so the seat is still challenged by a Fighting Dem. Peter Duffy in NH withdrew to support a non-vet, but another opponent is a vet for the district so the seat still has a vet running. Paul Lang and Bryan Lentz withdrew to make room for other vets and are waging vigorous campaigns for state senate and house, respectively.

With these considerations, it can be seen that about 15 of the original 90 candidates actually flat our lost. That is just a 6th of the Fighting Dem vets who are out of action.

And now the nitty gritty. First the chart and then a brief state by state review.

See The Chart on Fighting Dems/Wither the Fighting Dems

State by State Summary:


AZ: 3 face primary challenges.
Gene Sharer CD 4, the '04 candidate, is in race with a couple of other candidates. Herb Paine in CD 3 has one Dem opponent. Jeff Latas CD 8 faces a large field of candidates for a very vulnerable distinct where Jim Kolbe, 12th term GOP incumbent, is retiring. The primary is September 12th.

CA: 4 nominees, 4 lost primaries.
We lost two vets in CD 52, but another vet won. If we count by districts, this is not a loss. However, we did loss netroots blogger Karen Marie Otter, one of our three "sisters" of the Band of "Brothers". Another great candidate who had a surprise loss was Bill Falzett in CD 1. Wins were Bill Durston CD 3, Charlie Brown CD 4, Jim Brandt CD 45, and John Rinaldi CD 52 (who defeated two other vets in a field of 5). Jim Filson was defeated, but is supporting the nominee and will continue to be a political force in the district, but in the meantime we have a good Fighting Dem non-vet winner. Karen Marie has built a base and after supporting the vet who will oppose Hunter, she will carry on.

CO: 1 unopposed, 1 primary challenges.
Jay Fawcett CD 5 and Bill Winter CD 6 have a great opportunity to beat their Republican opponents as the polls are encouraging. Both Jay and Bill are seasoned bloggers on kos. Jay faces a field of candidates vying to fill retiring 10th term GOP incumbent Joel Hefley. Bill has no primary opponents. The primary is August 8th.

DE: 1 unopposed.
Dennis Spivack is unopposed for the At-Large Congressional District.

FL: 4 unopposed, 2 primary challenges, 1 withdrew.
Vietnam Vet Joe Roberts is unopposed in CD 1 facing 3rd term GOP incumbent Jeff Miller. He isn't getting much attention down there. He could use a helping hand. Rick Penberthy's campaign has been doing well in CD 5. He faces a field of Dem opponents in the primary after the seat of Ginny Brown-Waite the 2nd term GOP incumbent. Dave Bruderly with a great resume is unopposed facing Cliff Stearns, 9th term GOP incumbent. Jack Chagnon in CD 7 is unopposed but a nearly invisible candidate who has not shown up recently and no contact has been possible as yet. Bill Mitchell CD 9 withdrew to support Phyllis Busansky who has a shot at the seat vacated by retiring GOP Representative Mike Bilirakis. Decorated Vietnam vet Bob Bowman CD 15 must defeat one primary opponent before facing 6th term GOP incumbent Dave Weldon. Chief Warrant Office Big Dave Patlak, former candidate in CD 18, is unopposed and will face 9th term GOP incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. The Florida primary is set for September 5th.

GA: 1 unopposed.
Jim Nelson is unopposed and will face 7th term GOP incumbent Jack Kingston. Primary: July 18th.

IL: 4 nominees (2 won primary, 2 were unopposed).
It will be Tammy Duckworth vs. Peter J. Roskam (IL-06) and Jonathan "John" Laesch vs. speaker of the House J. Dennis Hastert (IL-14), Richard "Dick" Auman vs. Donald A. Manzullo (IL-16), and Steve Waterworth vs. Ray Lahood (IL-18).

IN: 1 nominee, 1 lost primary.
Tom Hayhurst in CD 3 will face off against Mark Souder, 6th term GOP incumbent. Rick Cornstuble lost his primary battle.

KY: 3 nominees, 2 lost primary.
We lost Andrew Horne but he is supporting the nominee, and remains active for other vets supporting IAVA PAC and keeping his base active for the Dems. Another loss was Eric Streit in CD 1. The nominees are Mike Weaver CD 2, former Congressman Ken Lucas CD 4 and Ken Stepp CD 5.

MD: 2 facing primary challenges.
Mishonda Baldwin CD 3 is running in a large field of Dem candidates to take the seat being vacated by Ben Cardin who is running for Senate. Andrew Duck CD 6 faces two primary challengers to go up against Roscoe Bartlett, 7th term GOP incumbent. They have both blogged live with us on kos. The primary is September 12th.

MI: 2 facing primary challenges, 1 unopposed.
Two vets are running for CD 7, so will lose at least one of them. Daryl Campbell and Fred Strack are facing two other non-vet Dem challengers in the primary to see who will run against 1st term GOP incumbent Joe Schwarz. Jim MARCINKOWSKY, vet and intelligence expert, is unopposed and will challenge 3rd term Mike Rogers in November. The primary is August 8th.

MN: 1 facing primary.
Command Sergeant Major Tim Walz faces the '04 nominee Leigh Pomeroy. The primary is September 12th.

MS: 1 faced primary, lost.
Ron Shapiro lost his late start primary challenge.

MO: 1 facing primary, 1 unopposed.
George "Boots" Weber CD 2 faces Dem challengers for the primary on August 8th but Duane Burghard CD has no primary opponents and will face Kenny C. Hulshof, 5th term GOP incumbent. The primary is August 8th.

NC: 1 nominee, 1 withdrew.
Craig Weber (NC-03) will run against Walter B. Jones, 6th term GOP incumbent. The withdrawal for personal financial reasons due to family and business concerns of Irag War vet Tim Dunn was a huge disappointment and a lesson for the Dems on supporting (or not) superb candidates.

NH: 1 facing primary challenger, 1 strategic withdrawal.
Pete Duffy withdrew to endorse non-vet candidate Jim Craig (now endorsed by the DCCC). Pete had sworn in advance to support Craig if he ran. His other vet opponent, Peter Sullivan, is still in the race running against Craig with activist Carol Shea-Porter and other challengers. The primary is on September 12th.

NJ: 1 nominee.
Fighting Dem Rich Sexton will face 11th term GOP incumbent Jim Saxton. Sexton NOT Saxton for Congress!

NY: 3 unopposed, 1 with primary challengers.
Bob Johnson is unopposed in NY-23 and this race is given four stars by DC Political Report. FD Ken Howland NY-25 faces a field of Dem challengers in the primary. In NY-26 Jack Davis, businessman and the ’04 nominee, is unopposed. Eric Massa is unopposed in NY-29 running in one of the most vulnerable districts in the U.S. against Randy “Rubberstamp” Kuhl. Five stars from DC Political Report.

OH: 1 nominee, 5 lost primary, 1 strategic withdrawal
Richard Siferd (OH-04), however, is unopposed and running for a seat vacated by GOP incumbent Michael Oxley who is retiring after 13 terms. Four stars from DC Political Report. This district is very competitive with an excellent Fighting Dem vet candidate. Ohio took some hard hits. Paul Hackett withdrew to make room for another Dem candidate, but some other vets lost to non-vets, including two pairs of vets running against each other (none of the four won). The loss of Mayor and vet Joe Sulzer was an upset.

OK: 1 primary challenge.
Bert Smith is one of a three-man contest for the Dem primary on July 25th.

PA: 4 nominees, 1 loss, 2 strategic withdrawals. .
Vice Admiral Joe Sestak will fact 10th term Curt Weldon, Patrick Murphy will face 1st term Michael Fitzpatrick, Chris Carney will face 4th term Don Sherwood, and Phil Avillo will face 2nd term Todd Platts. A strategic withdrawal earlier on to make way for Joe Sestak by Bryan Lentz and by Paul Lang for Patrick Murphy. They are running for State Senate and Representative and are doing well, recently endorsed by Max Cleland.

RI: 1 primary challenge.
Carl Sheeler is running for Senate in a three-man Dem field for a vulnerable district. This is a likely win for the Democratic nominee against 1st term Lincoln Chafee who also faces a primary challenge.

SC: 2 nominees
Lee Ballinger (SC-03) won the primary to face J. Gresham Barrett, a 2nd term GOP incumbent and William Griffith is will face Bob Inglis.

TN: 2 primary challenges.
Terry Stulce (TN-03) will face ex-Libertarian Brent Benedict in the Dem primary. Bill Morrison (TN-07) an opponent in the Dem primary. Jeff Greer in CD 7 failed to have his petition signatures certified. The primary is on August 3rd.

TX: 7 nominees (6 unopposed, 1 won runoff against another vet), 2 lost to non-vets. .
Two candidates (Duane Shaw and David Murff) lost primary and one vet lost (author Paul Foreman) in a runoff with vet Ted Ankrum. Dan Dodd (TX-03) will face 8th term GOP incumbent Sam Johnson. Charlie Thompson (TX-05) will face 2nd term GOP incumbent Jeb Hensarling. David Harris (TX-06) will face 11th term TOP incumbent Joe Barton. Ted Ankrum (TX-10) will face 1st term Mike McCaul. Roger Waun (TX-13) will face Mac Thornberry. John Courage (TX-21), the '02 nominee, will face Lamar Smith. Rick Bolaños (TX-23) will face Henry Bonilla.

VA: 2 nominees.
Jim Webb for Senate and Al Weed for the House of Representatives. Vet Bern Ewert lost in a caucus to vet Al Weed. Earlier David Ashe bowed out of the race in favor of a non-vet candidate and to take a position in the upcoming Kaine administration.

WI: 1 facing a primary
John Curry, and ex-marine, was campaign manager for a vet who dropped out. John jumped into the trenches and is running unopposed.

WV: 1 lost primary
South Charleston Mayor Richie Rob lost his primary bid. This was the elector who threatened to bolt the Republican Party and vote for someone other than George Bush. He subsequently changed to a Democrat and ran for Congress.

Retrospective and Prospective Views

About five dozen Fighting Dem vets will challenge an equal number of incumbent Republican seats in November. About 15 Fighting Dem vets lost their election bids/ This is despite the fact that of the original count of some 90 vets who ran, about 30 fewer remain in the race, roughly one-third. What must be taken into consideration, however, are the following two factors. First, some vets voluntarily withdrew to endorse other candidates, some vets and some non-vets. This would not be considered a loss in any substantial sense. Second, there were numerous instances of more than one vet running for the same district. It was a foregone conclusion that at least one would lose. So the most important factor is how many districts are represented by Fighting Dems and how many districts have to date been lost.

This latter factor can be seen in the count of the districts that have been lost as only 19, indicating some candidates were vying for CDs against other Fighting Dem vet candidates. In addition, looking at these 19 seats, some were not lost in primary or caucus contests, but in the strategic withdrawal of Fighting Dem vets to support or endorse other candidates who were not Fighting Dem vets. Of the 9 withdrawals, 8 can be categorized as strategic. We end up then with a figure of about 15 actual Fighting Dem losses.

Since in many instances, the candidate who won the primary is a worthy opponent of the FD and supremely superior to the Republican incumbent, the term "losses" has only statistical value. So the matter is whether the Fighting Dems have lived up to the notion that they were better equipped to oppose Republican incumbents. The primaries do not answer this question as they are fought out between Dems and the votes are largely (with cross-over voters seemingly negligent) a Dem popularity contest and does not directly address the issue of whether the vets who lost to non-vet dems were more apt to defeat the GOP incumbent. The candidate who is more popular with Dems is not necessarily the one who can bring over independents and moderate or disaffected Republicans. Nevertheless, there is no case that I know of where a Dem candidate, vet or non-vet, is less attractive than the Republican alternative.

In many cases, the Dem vets in this most unusual display of crossing over to the Dem party began their campaigns late and have laid the groundwork for future engagements if need by, in the meantime supporting the nominee of the party. Some candidates, like Paul Hackett and Andrew Horne, are taking active part in helping other vets win elections through IAVA PAC or by other means.

So the real test of Fighting Dem vet effectiveness will come in the '06 and '08 General Elections. I say '06 and '08 because in many cases the FDs entered the contest late and were only just beginning to build a network of support. Others, like Eric Massa, who began running the day after the election in '04, have done their homework. The vets who have lost primary battles have endorsed their primary opponents by and large, but will remain forces in their "red" districts as they build the Democratic Party there "from the ground up." If they follow the Massa model, they will begin working toward '08 the day after the '06 election. It took many years for the GOP to become the majority party. It did not happen in a single election. And it will take the next two elections to begin to recoup our losses in areas long ceded to the Republican Party.