Examine the entrails & predict the August Connecticut Primary.

[saltpoint]

Predict the outcome of the U.S. Senate race in Connecticut -- the Primary is in August, the general election in November.

The poll choices represent some outcomes, but there may be other possibilities. Scenarios can overlap, as we don't know what Lieberman has decided about a possible independent run.

[SteppingRazor]

1. I voted Joe wins both...

while Ned has made some great positive gains in the polls in recent days, he still trails by double digits. As things stand today, it's Lieberman's race to lose, whether you're talking the primary or the general.

[saltpoint]

2. Ned's campaign must be going full throttle. They know what they are up

against.

Still, they've cut Joe's lead dramatically, so they must be feeling that adrenalin high.

I'd love to be up late with them, stuffing envelopes and talking, maybe ordering a late-night pizza...

What fun Connecticut Democrats must be having this summer.

[SteppingRazor]

3. Yeah, it'll be a helluva great race...

I do hope Lamont pulls it off. But as of yet, I'm not convinced he will

[OKNancy]

4. I voted the same

Just being a realist.

[CTyankee]

5. Today is the day to vote with your heart

I did and cast the first vote for Ned to win both the primary and the general.

Somebody has got to have hope here!

[saltpoint]

6. Hi, CTYankee. It feels to me as if Lamont's campaign is on a kind of

tightrope.

They are still behind in the recent polls but are gaining strength.

If only we knew what the internal polling says from both camps.

That would be a headline!

[BayCityProgressive]

7. Lamont

will win the primaries. Liberals are pissed. Liberals vote heavily in primaries. Joe will be a dick and run as an independant. Most independant and moderate Dems will vote for Lieberman because he will have the most cash in the race. Lamont and Lieberman will split the vote, the DNC will not help Lamont and the GOP will take a seat from us.

[saltpoint]

8. Hi, BCP. Lamont is fairly wealthy, isn't he? Would that be a way for

him to compete in a general election whether or not the DNC chips in?

Or are you talking about the party's organizational strength?

[CTyankee]

9. I'm not sure the Republicans have any strength in this race

The tension here is between Joe (as an Independent) and Lamont (as the Democrat), if Ned wins of course.

I was just being the person to wish on a star.

Today was a bad day for so many of us. I wanted to have a bright spot...

[saltpoint]

10. I appreciate your vote that way, CTYankee. Also I think Lamont has

a very good chance to win.

It's still a tough road ahead before that primary, but my own guess is that Joe drops out soon and Ned becomes the Dems' nominee.

I think that puts him in a good position to win in November.

[skyblue]

38. Republicans Are Waiting to Win the Spoils While Dems Diss each other

They don't have to do jackshit right now

[saltpoint]

39. Are you sure? Connecticut is pretty blue. My impression was that

the GOP candidate is at a disadvantage.

In a tight 3-way race, I'm not as sure, but my hunch is that rightwing Republicans aren't all that dominant in Connecticut.

[skyblue]

41. CT has Rep. Chris Shay, Nancy Johnson, and Rob Simmons, Republican Gov.

The Republican Governor has the same Demographic as the Senator. However the Senator is an incumbent. Incumbents have a history of doing very well in campaigns regardless of party affiliation: Thus the Governor is a Republican; The Senator a Democrat. Note Liberals don't know the difference between a DINO who is only a DINO in some ways not all and gives millions to the Democratic Party, and a Republican who gives money to the Republican party. Many seem to repeat endlessly that a DINO is the same and they would not feel bad if a Republican was elected in place of a DINO. That should set up an alarm in people's minds, when you hear that someone who is about to make millions for Republicans is the same as someone who makes millions for Dems. As well as the distortion of records and name calling. There's other things Liberals don't know like to be a Liberal is not popular. Like talking amongst yourselves only gets you off and doesn't win elections. And there are other things...

[saltpoint]

44. I meant that Connecticut is a blue state, and that even many of its

Republicans are pretty moderate.

Lowell Weicker very arguably was more liberal than some of Lieberman's positions.

Shays is not the same kind of Republican as Tom Coburn.

I was speaking in praise of Connecticut politics generally. 'Would prefer all Democrats everywhere in all 50 states all the time no matter what.

Absent that, I'll praise any direction toward our side I can get.

[skyblue]

47. OTHER RACES INCL THOSE FOR REPS SHOW DEMS LEADING BY ALOT REFLECT

HOW public opinion is going then I would take that chance. But I doubt that the other races going on the state vs. Republican show that Dems are leading by alot.

[saltpoint]

49. Has a claim been made here to that effect? Or are you flexible enough

to admit that Connecticut Republicans' constituencies are more moderate than Tom Coburn's or Jeff Sessions' constituencies, to name just two glaring examples of contrast.

[skyblue]

54. Other Races Do not Show the DEMS are Leading by Alot.....

So that's how things go in CT and reflects Public Opinion what is actually happening out in the field.

But the Republicans are probably more moderate than Orrin Hatch or Rick Santorum or Tom Delay or Jeb Bush. CT probably does not have as many incidents of intolerance than they have a history of in the South. There are fewer jesus with the light-brown hair signs in CT than say for example WV. I'll have to look into those 2 people that you had mentioned before I can reply with an adequate response with specific regard to those 2. Don't know who they are.

[saltpoint]

56. Tom Coburn is the junior senator from Oklahoma who ran on a

far-right platform which included the sensational highlight of his heightened alarm over "rampant lesbianism" in high schools.

It was unclear at times whether this was perceived by Mr. Coburn as a regional problem or if it pervaded the nation as a whole, coast-to-coast.

In any case, he's a flagrant psychotic.

Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) is one of the least articulate members of the U.S. Senate. If you have an opportunity to catch him some time on C-Span, don't take it. Go to a film instead.

You can check with DUer state forums in AL and OK and get their on-site reactions to these two folks.

There are Tom Coburn Republicans and then there are Lowell Weicker Republicans. They aren't the same.

[skyblue]

59. I'll have to google that one. Sounds like an interesting speech.

[skyblue]

61. CT Republican Constituencies are Successful regardless of their

Conservative or Moderate stances.

Thus, they have elected 3 representative out of 5 and have a successful Governor and are probably winning in their incumbent races.

This is probably reflective of public opinion which is what will make or break the GENERAL election.

[wiley]

67. Jodie Rell is the Governor of Connecticut

She's a woman. She's a very popular Republican who governs without regard for party (i.e., totally in the interests of the state and its' people).


"There's other things Liberals don't know like to be a Liberal is not popular."

WHAT are you going on about?

[Cappadonna]

70. Green Party Wet Dreams don't win here , but neither do Bushistas

Look, Connecticut residents aren't flaming lefties for the most part. However, they're not big on right wing neocon clones. The Repubs in CT play it pretty moderate, they can't pull that Klansmen nonsense up here, or they'll get a foot up their ass. The CT GOP is the last of the Northeastern Goldwater types. The state has a civil unions law. And the Republicans are simply don't have the muscle downstate (New Haven to Greenwich) to take the Senate. And they aren't too many wingnuts in the state. And the Republican governor and two republican mayors went to jail.

[skyblue]

43. CT has 2 Democratic Representatives 3 Republican Representatives

[Pale Blue Dot]

12. Incorrect.

Dems in this state will not support Lieberman if he defects from the party. Republicans, smelling blood, will support their own guy.

I honestly think that the best thing that could happen for Democrats in CT is for Lieberman to run as an independent. It insures us the seat.

[Pale Blue Dot]

11. I'm in CT, I was at Lamont headquarters in W. Hartford today.

I'm going back on Friday for phone banking.

Most Dems. in CT are undecided right now - which I think is a very, very bad sign for Joe.

My prediction: Ned wins primary. Joe runs as an independent, which turns off remaining Dem voters and doesn't win him any Repub. support. The results will be:

1. Ned Lamont
2. Republican challenger
3. Lieberman

[saltpoint]

13. FinnFan, thanks for your insights on this. I'm nowhere near Connecticut

but am fascinated by this race.

If Lieberman loses to Lamont in the August primary, isn't it true that he has only a day or so to file for a run as an Independent?

Which would mean he'd have to collect the necessary number of signatures ahead of the primary?

Or am I off on that?

That would attract notice, seems like -- an incumbent gathering petition signatures to run in case he loses the primary?

[Pale Blue Dot]

14. Good questions. I'm not sure.

It's important to know, though.

[saltpoint]

16. Well, I'll keep an eye out and see what's up. Thank you for working in

the campaign and I appreciate very much your info tonight.

Good luck to you!

[Pale Blue Dot]

30. According to the Hartford Courant today,

Lieberman would need 7,500 signiture by August 9th (the day after the primary) in order to be on the ballot as an independent.

http://www.courant.com/news/local/statewire/hc-14120739.apds.m0538.bc-ct--liebjun14,0,3086924.story

[saltpoint]

31. Thank you for that, Finnfan. That would mean a pretty visible

campaign to get those signatures, so we would know well ahead of the primary whether Joe had made the decision to run as an independent.

Wow. This is terrific political theater.

[Placebo]

15. Joe wins Primary & Wins Re-election

I'd love it if Ned could make it but I just don't know. Anything can happen, though.

[saltpoint]

17. Hi, Placebo. I'm curious to see the next poll to see whether Lamont's

surge has stalled or if it's still on the way up.

A lot of people on the liberal blogs will be paying attention to Connecticut for the August primary.

[Placebo]

18. I know, we need way more polls out of CT.

We've only got a couple months to get Lamont to a majority.

[saltpoint]

19. I'm too far away from the action to make a great prediction, but my

hunch is that Joe will announce that he's running as an Independent before the primary.

It probably depends on his internal polling. If it shows him leading Lamont comfortably enough, I suppose he'll stay in as a Dem.

But if it's getting too close for comfort, I think he jumps.

[monarch]

20. pulled the trigger too fast

I voted that Lamont wins both but I actually think that Joe will pull out to run as an independent fairly soon. Two major developments today--Joe's campaign manager said in a radio interview that Joe will not support Lamont if Lamont wins the primary and AFT (second largest union in CT) declared support for Lamont. Any union support Joe had going into the convention was very lukewarm and I don't see them working hard, particularly since Joe seems to be self-destructing. One union guy called Joe "very high maintenance" or something very similar.

[saltpoint]

21. Yes, monarch -- I saw that endorsement by the AFT. Don't know how

it is in Connecticut, but in other states those endorsements usually go to the incumbent.

Not a good sign for Joe -- you're right.

Plus the campaign manager's comment...

It's looking more volatile for Lieberman by the hour.

[monarch]

22. Definitely not a good sign for Joe!

Updated my earlier message while you were posting. Do think that union support should make Lamont a winner if the primary actually takes place. Even if Joe withdraws, there will be a primary for governor so it could be interesting if his name has to stay on the primary ballot.

[saltpoint]

23. It is going to be a wild one. I probably should have included in

my poll the option of Rumsfeld resigning and Bush appointing Lieberman to that post.

The timing is touchy, but it's at least possible. Or even vice president. Fitzgerald may have some dark news for a certain vice president, especially if Rove ratted on Big Time.

Then, not wanting to choose his successor without making other Republicans angry, Bush could choose Lieberman.

[Awsi Dooger]

24. Unfortunately, Joe wins

So one-sided, in fact, that the betting sources I deal with won't even put a number on it, primary or general.

[saltpoint]

26. Oh. That's the most pro-Joe assessment so far, I think. By odds, I mean,

and not your personal preference. I know big money is behind many betting sources and I'm too far away to question it outright.

If you feel your sources are reliable, it may be that Ned has his work cut out for him.

[Awsi Dooger]

28. Long time until August

I could be wrong.

Just so rare for a primary challenge to work, or even threaten to work. I like to keep that big picture reality in mind, rather than forecast a specific case to overcome the obstacles.

[saltpoint]

29. Yep -- always a good strategy. I keep wondering what Lieberman's

staff are hearing around the state.

They must be doing soundings in various areas -- the usual phone calls and emails, maybe? 'Would love to know what they're hearing from party organizers.

If he chooses to use it, I guess Ned Lamont has the cash to be competitive. Money buys a lot of visibility and radio ads and tv ads and so forth.

Youre right about there still being plenty of time. But I'm thinking Joe will jump and run as an Independent.

[IndianaGreen]

25. Lieberman accepts the position of VP replacing Cheney in "national unity"

government. All of Joe's detractors and Bush's critics will be labeled as terrorism enablers by Bush's new attack dog, Joe Lieberman.

[saltpoint]

27. I could see it. I wouldn't LIKE it, but I could see it. When the

plausible becomes unsettling, all we can do is cross our fingers and hope that it doesn't happen.

I'm sure Joe would relish the role, too.

[TheVirginian]

32. Republicans aren't a factor in this race. Most GOPers support Lieberman

I don't know who'll win the primary, but I know Lieberman will win the general election, whether its as an Independent or a Democrat.

[monarch]

33. Didn't you learn anything in that very long thread?

I just read it now and I admire your tenacity, if not your insomnia. It should have become obvious by now that you should be reading more than that outdated Q poll. Those of us who live here have the advantage of exposure not only to the views of our friends and neighbors, who express outright hatred of Lieberman, but to the local media. There has been an astonishing change in the media coverage and it is all swinging Ned's way.

More than 2 months ago I predicted that Lieberman would withdraw from the primary to go independent. After 2 days of pure craziness, I wonder if Joe will withdraw altogether. We'll just have to see if his best pal Bush will come up with an offer he can't refuse.

[jonnyblitz]

35. I can't wait to vote for Lamont in August. I count down the days...

:thumbsup:

[saltpoint]

34. Hi, Virginian. I posted this poll prior to learning that a new Rasmussen

survey puts Ned Lamont within 6 percentage points of Joe Lieberman in the Connecticut primary.

Several Connecticut DUers have been posting information on the race, and on the ground situation in CT, and we're getting some great info about what's going on.

The trend is toward Lamont. Speculation is that Lieberman will jump and run as an Independent, and according to the info, he'd have to gather the signatures before the Primary so that he can still meet the filing deadline if he loses.

The hardcore straight-ticket Republicans will stick with their nominee and Lamont will claim a lot of the left-of-center Democrats and (I think) swing voters of all stripes.

That leaves Joe Lieberman in a kind of limbo. I don't like his chances nearly as much today as I did a month or two ago.

[skyblue]

37. Because of Name Recognition. Not Party Affiliation

[skyblue]

36. The Republican Governor will win.

[saltpoint]

40. She's popular, but does she have a hand on any lever for the Senate

race?

[skyblue]

42. Same Electorate.

[saltpoint]

45. Please consider the new Rasmussen poll. Lamont is now only 6% points

behind Lieberman. The poll's sampling was small but the trend is clear: Lieberman faces a very sturdy challenge by a more liberal contender for that seat.

He is being advised to seek re-election as an Independent.

It may or may not mean that he wins another term, as Lamont's strength is still new and not fully gauged.

Those are my impressions.

[skyblue]

46. It's The GENERAL Election that Matters. The GENERAL Election.

[saltpoint]

48. They all matter. It's all the same election. Every choice put before

voters asks their participation into representative democracy, into a constitutional republic.

The post is about the Primary. Primary elections are tantamount to General elections.

They all count. They all matter.

[skyblue]

50. The Primary includes Ads Bashing the Eventual General Election Candidate.

Making that Candidate have a harder time to get elected, because people will already have negative opinions about that candidate.

Primary Elections may choose a winner that has no crossover appeal. Crossover appeal is especially important when public opinion is not helping to elect other Democratic candidates running in State of CT. Should these other Democrats win a comfortable lead then perhaps it is a sign that CT is ready for change. If they are not winning comfortable leads then this is a sign that CT voters are not ready for change. ADs have been run against Nancy Johnson, and I certainly do hope they are making strong inroads against this candidate. She's a piece of work. But I doubt much change has been made in people's minds.

[saltpoint]

51. My original post asks DUers to consider options, some of them

overlapping, for the outcome of the race between Joe Lieberman and Ned Lamont.

I don't need any updates on what a primary election is.

Same for general elections; I consider myself to be up-to-date.

Connecticut voters can vote however they please. You're one vote wherever you live; I'm one vote wherever I live. Let's let the other 298 million people in the country decide for themselves.

If you have a take on the Lieberman/Lamont contest, this thread is an opportunity to express it.

[skyblue]

52. I Don't Live By Your Rules, Man.... Just needed to verify that

a Primary offers a Prime opportunity to bash the eventual General Election candidate.

[saltpoint]

53. I haven't posted any of my rules. I've cited a few of the Constitution's

however.

You missed 'em.

[skyblue]

55. Do Primary Candidates have A Responsibility To Their Party then

Not to Bash other Candidates from the Same Party?

[saltpoint]

57. "Bash" is the key word to your excellent question. A primary or

caucus system is designed to select a nominee; in the course of debates and ads and discourse those candidates will disagree with each other on issues or approaches or philosophy.

The closer the contest, often the dirtier the tactics.

There's always a difference between Candidate Smith saying that Candidate Jones' stand on Bush's foreign policy is "wrong-headed and should be changed to reflect so-and-so" and, on the other hand, Candidate Bush's operatives (Karl Rove) saying that Candidate McCain has "fathered a black child" and circulating it among party operatives in South Carolina.

Respectful disagreement is essential in selecting a candidate. Filth-mongering to eliminate competition is not the same as respectful disagreement.

Lieberman and Lamont are in a primary, unless Joe bolts and runs as an Independent BEFORE the primary. If the polls show Lamont's surge gathering strength, Lieberman will have to gather signatures to run as an Independent prior to the primary.

[skyblue]

58. The GENERAL ELECTION Is all that Matters. Responsibility lies with

making any kind of comment. If in making a comment it hurts the final Democratic candidate, then one probably should not make the comment. If you screw it up then you need to take responsibility and understand that you screwed it up.

Unfortunately it's not just the ideas it's whether you think he'll win and other factors about him that make one decide on the candidate. I have other factors that I believe make it more difficult for Lamont in GENERAL election.

[saltpoint]

60. We'll have to see. If I'm reading recent poll trends and instinctual

tea leaves right, though, Joe Lieberman is going down.

Ned Lamont is posing a dramatic and serious challenge to Lieberman in the primary -- and by the way, Ned has assertively declared he will support the winner of that primary in the general election; Joe balked and said he "wouldn't rule out" an independent run.

So much for party loyalty by Joe Lieberman.

I'm a Democrat. Not a Connecticut Democrat, but a Democrat nevertheless, and I hpoe Ned Lamont kicks Joe's wobbly butt for his lack of support, his failure to agree to support the winner of the Democratic Primary in the general election, and his overall cluelessness.

Lowell Weicker and his wife are hosting a gathering and supportfest for Lamont. Joe's drifted too far to the right for a lot of people, and Ned Lamont's 40% & climbing poll numbers are a testament to that.

[skyblue]

62. Believe me I know whereof I speak.

When I say that I have other reasons about Lamont.

[saltpoint]

63. If you're a registered CT voter, you get one vote. There are other

people in CT who also get one vote.

One or the other of two men will win that primary in August.

[skyblue]

64. What I mean to say is....

I'm not making bets on who would win in the Primary, I mean to be talking about which candidate Dems could succeed with in a General Election considering that the 3 representative (moderate or conservative) races and the gov race which have ratpig incumbents are probably doing well and this is probably a more a more accurate reflection of the actual diversity and potential volatility of general public opinion. And there are certain areas in which I think Lamont lacks political savvy (not so good for a GE win), but I can't go into that (I hope a Dem wins therefore i try not to f with that).

I apologize if i have missed the thread here and there and am reiterating.

[saltpoint]

65. It's a race that holds my interest because way, way back, when Nixon

was in the White House and the Senate Watergate Committee was in session, I grew to admire Lowell Weicker.

I like to say there were only 5 or 6 good Republicans, ever, and he's one of them.

Lieberman ran to Weicker's right to win that seat. That's the source of my unease with Lieberman. It predates Bush's Iraq War by a long time.

Now Lamont is running to the left of Lieberman. I'm eager to see what happens and I support Lamont. I'm not seeing any evidence that the GOP candidate has a prayer in hell in Connecticut against either Lieberman or Lamont. A 3-way race looks to favor both Lieberman and Lamont over the GOP guy.

And it will be interesting to see if Lieberman claws to keep his seat as a Democrat or if he gathers signatures to run as an independent in case Lamont wins the primary in August. And if Joe jumps to indy, whether CT Dems and the DSCC support him or Lamont against Schlesinger.

For me, this race has a high threshold interest. Lamont is within striking distance of a veteran, high-profile incumbent, and that is an exciting scenario. If he wins, Ned Lamont would represent one less opportunity for the Bush administration to advance its neo-con agenda in the U.S. Congress.

[skyblue]

66. Talk to the Hand. One Last shot on my part here.....

CT is not the Blue state that you think.
Republican Governor altho' scandal ridden will probably be elected (polls are probably good for her)
State of CT has 3 Republican Representative and 2 Democratic Representatives. The 3 Republican Representatives are probably still enjoying a lead despite the huge dislike for the M-E mess and how these Republican representatives authorized the M-E mess to be made.

Or, Is the Negative Impact of the M-E mess making such a Negative Impression of Republicans that all 3 Republican Representatives are seeing their poll numbers go way down? Do you know anything about this specifically with regard to Republican Candidates in CT?

Yes, some Republicans may be "moderate", but it doesn't follow that they won't necessarily vote for a Republican Senator. It doesn't necessarily follow that the Republican candidate they select will be "moderate". DINO's make millions for the Democratic party Republicans make millions for the Republican party.

Be advised then that a DINO is NOT the same as a Republican.

Democrats need moderate Dems in order to win elections.
Sure the stats at this point for a Democratic candidate to be selected prior to any Republican ad being shown look fabulous, (and also prior to Dem Vs. Dem ads which really should be considered Rep. vs. Dem ads because you attack a candidate and you make it worse for that candidate to win in the General election). When Republican Ads are made however they will certainly gain in popularity.
Name Recognition probably matters than party affiliation in winning an election. I believe party affiliation is irrelevant in this matter.
Your candidate has made mistakes already which I can't go into which sounds like a cop out I know (like many Republicans say about so many issues "I can't go into detail" etc...) but it's not that I dislike Lamont that much I want someone on the Left to win. He is a new candidate which means he will make mistakes due to lack of experience. So, unbef'ingfortunately I can't really go into detail on why I think Lamont who may have some advantage due to party affiliation but I suspect not a whole heck of alot (the "same" CT voters who will vote for scandal ridden Republican governor of the Republican party she is a Republican so why would a Democrat of the Democratic party have such an advantage over a Republican of the Republican party in this vote for Senator case makes no sense to me because after all I believe most of it is name recognition of incumbent Senator and not party affiliation)

Where JL has voted with the Republicans are issues where the Republicans win the vote anyway.

Ok, so I gave this my best shot. Now I leave it to the hoozimahutzes who know how to talk to people when it's like talking to the wall.

[snowbear]

69. You must be the one who voted a Rethug would win overall.

[guidod]

68. I think Joe will win in

both, it's not what I would like to see but I think he will.