Republican plan to use Ohio model to help Schwarzenegger win

[ProSense]

GOP fashioning Bush-style turnout operation for Cal election

By Michael R. Blood
ASSOCIATED PRESS

8:26 a.m. June 10, 2006

LOS ANGELES – State Republicans are attempting to organize the largest mobilization of GOP election volunteers in state history to help deliver a re-election victory for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a strategy modeled on get-out-the-vote drives that President Bush used to capture Ohio and other swing states in 2004.

Party insiders say as many as 90,000 people could be enlisted in the closing days of the race to knock on doors, plant yard signs or make telephone calls to connect with potential voters, an unprecedented figure in a state thick with Democrats.

A record turnout by the state's 5.4 million Republicans could cut into a Democratic registration edge that otherwise puts Schwarzenegger and other statewide GOP candidates at a numerical disadvantage at the polls.

Snip...

The turnout operation – which will be bankrolled with as much as $25 million – is being assembled at a state party office in Burbank by William Christiansen, a veteran state GOP operative whose get-out-the-vote program for the 2004 Bush campaign in Arizona helped deliver a 10-point victory. Former Bush strategists also are in charge of Schwarzenegger's re-election campaign, which is playing a central role in the turnout drive.

more...

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/state/20060610-0826-ca-governorsrace-schwarzenegger.html

[fooj]

1. Shit! We've got some work to do.

California IS BLUE and will REMAIN BLUE! Period.

[CAcyclist]

2. So, people, start helping the Angelides campaign!

http://www.Angelides.com

You can connect there to write a LTTE, download a video and show it to your neighbors, get a copy of the transcripts from his speech and quote parts of it in your LTTE. People, we must not let S. win!

[Botany]

3. Republican GOTV drive won Ohio for bush?

Please I live in Ohio.

We registered 350,000 new voters to bush's 30,000
We have lost God knows how many jobs
We had significant #s of 2000 bush voters voting for Kerry in 04
(Morrow County the most repub in the state ..... had 68% bush vote
in 2000 but 63% bush vote in 2004 ..... "they" did not fix that county
..... 5 % drop in bush's 2000 base)


bUSH WON BECAUSE THEY CHEATED .... AND IF THEY ARE USING OHIO AS THE MODEL
EXPECT THEM TO CHEAT IN CALI.

[bleever]

6. There must be a pony

somewhere under this giant pile of horseshit, to borrow a line Reagan borrowed.

Yeah, they had a great turnout operation; yeah, that's the ticket!

I'm glad there's a good explanation!

[mirandapriestly]

7. Yes, cheating was my first thought, too. nt

[Awsi Dooger]

4. We can deny Republican GOTV improvement all we want

It's by far the most underrated factor this November. If the gains aren't what we expect, GOTV will be the reason, not Diebold.

I've read dozens of online articles since '02. Here's one from July 2003. Notice how it specifically mentions religious conservatives under performing, and also voters who only voted in presidential elections encouraged to turn out in midterms:http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2519/is_7_24/ai_105657622

"That came though loud and clear at the recent Campaigns & Elections seminar presentation by Blaise Hazelwood, a chief strategist for the Republican National Committee (RNC) and architect of the Republicans' vaunted 2002 GOTV effort. That plan, dubbed "72 Hour Task Force," is widely credited with partly helping win control of the Senate and expand their House majority. It will be improved and expanded upon for President Bush's 2004 re-election bid, which is being managed by former White House Political Director Ken Mehlman and generally overseen by Karl Rove.

The 2002 Republican GOTV effort succeeded in beating Democrats at their own game. Labor unions had become experts in turning out their members and supporters on Election Day to vote for Democratic candidates, said Hazelwood. According to her research, in the 1998 and 2000 elections, union households over performed in turnout results by up to 40 percent, while turnout results among religious conservatives--who often vote Republican-- were found to be under performing.

To counter that trend, in 2001 Hazelwood, Rove and Mehlman used the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections, along with several special congressional elections, to test what turnout methods really worked. Even though Republicans lost the governor-ships of Virginia and New Jersey that year, the data they collected was invaluable in calculating a grassroots strategy that led to the big Republican congressional victories of 2002.

One part of the strategy was to survey voters who voted only in presidential elections and to encourage them to vote Republican in off-year elections. This involved a healthy dose of salesmanship.

"We call people at the most inopportune times" and ask them to vote, she said. This can lead to some angry responses, but generally, it works, she said."

[Doctor_J]

9. Please

the GOP GOTV efforts are dwarfed by ours. And GOTV efforts are dwarfed by fraud, theft, intimidation, and legal wrangling. If you think Smirk won OH honestly in 2004 then you've spent too much time listening to hate radio and Cabal "News". And stop posting GOP press releases here.

[Awsi Dooger]

10. I'm awaiting a threat of substance

There wasn't a hint of it in your post.

We had a huge GOTV edge until '02. Rove understood '00 was a fluke win and he took steps to catch up in GOTV beginning in '01. That link I provided mentions that. I was reading tons of related online articles at the time, and since. You guys who blame everything on theft and think the other side is neither motivated nor competent are sadly ignorant.

We had a rare opportunity to win Ohio in 2004 due to a horrid state economy. That state is 2-4 points GOP leaning at base instinct but the short term local problems meant it would probably be very close to dead even with the national popular vote margin. I was posting that for more than a year prior to 2004. And it was dead even with the national vote. Our problem was fairly basic; losing nationwide by 3 points. It's remarkably lame to think we can win Ohio while losing nationally by 3 points. Show me any set of numbers within the past 20 or 30 years where that makes any sense. Big hint: you can't.

I know the counter argument: we didn't lose nationally by 3 points. Unfortunately, the results of the bellwether states and counties indicates we did. Unless you want to embrace exit polls saying we won New Hampshire by 17 or New York by 31 or Pennsylvania by 10, numbers that make zero historical sense despite anything Steven Freeman wants to pretend.

I want to win as much as anyone here. The Blackwell-type low tech theft is legit and more widespread than it is being reported. But I'm convinced the machines will benefit us in the long run so I'm not jumping on that fearful bandwagon. White women are the key to the 2006, 2008 and foreseaable elections. And Republican GOTV is the most under reported obstacle to major gains for us this November. Do you really think the other side will stay home, with both chambers at stake? Please.

[AtomicKitten]

5. over my dead body

We will mobilize and sweep Lumpy out of this state.

[niallmac]

8. I've never heard 'The Ohio Model' referred to as honest hard working

campaigning. I've only heard of it as a reference to criminal vote fraud. Can't argue with the good old
college try campaigning this article speaks of. Of course I don't believe they are going to play fair this
time or any time.