SHIELDS BOMBSHELL: "30 seat loss" says GOP Member"

[henslee]

MARK SHIELDS: The gloom is there. It's on the Hill. It's wherever two or more Republicans gather in name, I mean, really. I mean, the president's name comes up.

And there was one number -- I was talking to, probably, in my judgment, the most able Republican campaign legislator in the business -- and probably I'm giving away his identity by saying it -- and he said he thought that Republicans would lose right now 30 seats in the House.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/5/12/214544/155

[IndyOp]

1. Just Please Let Me Be One Who Helps To Make It So...

And I *just know* that the rest of DU will be too...

:patriot:

[henslee]

5. Steve Gilliard expands on this bit of news & here's a snip & a link....

http://stevegilliard.blogspot.com

What the DC Dems don't get is how alienated Americans have become with Bush and the GOP. They are begging for aggressive leadership, and people are still worried about NASCAR dads.

Folks, you need to worry about Walter Reed dads. They want the war to end, they want a resolution to the War on Terror and not the ham handed methods Bush is using. Americans,
for the most part are non-ideological. Most ideology is phrased in social issues, not politics. Bush and The GOP won because they convinced people that they were level headed good managers.

The opposite is true, inept criminals usually don't win the hearts of people. The GOP has mangled every chance, every thing they touched.

Dean is right, the Dems can win on the coasts, but they need the center to govern with the consent of the people.

[Warren Stupidity]

2. That would be just about a normal off year loss.

However nothing much is normal anymore.



http://politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com/2006/05/approval-and-midterm-seat-loss-two.html

Between fraud and safe seat gerrymandering I have no idea how 06 is going to turn out.

[BigYawn]

34. I won't be surprised if we actually lose seats in 2006

The gerrymandering might do us in.

[KingFlorez]

3. Could happen

Things are pretty bad right now and with right-wingers threatening to not vote in November, it makes it easier for us to pick up seats.

[HereSince1628]

4. I think Matthews said something similar yesterday...

At the same time it's a long time 'til November.

[TomClash]

6. We'll see

Just remember the Repukes blitz at the end - and an October surprise may be in the offing and might just work.

I've worked in enough campaigns to know you can take nothing for granted. We must still work very hard.

[corkhead]

10. the only October surprise that will work is for them to cancel elections

people are so pissed that any other stunt they try to pull will backfire.

The only tbing we have to fear...
is martial law.

[CATagious]

33. Bill Maher said the October surprises....

... are going to be Gay adoption, fetal pain... uuummm..... there were a couple other bills that they will trotting out to get their base out to vote. Anyone else see his last show and have a better memory than I do?

I hope that repugs will see thru their BS this time and realize that they are just being played

[TomClash]

37. Richard Clarke said this time they would trot out gay adoption

to increase "Christian" turnout.

[kenny blankenship]

7. I hate to hear people counting chicks before they hatch

[corbett]

17. What We Should Do Instead

Everyone should share the following URL:

http://houseofscandal.org/main.html

[Orlandodem]

27. We need to open our wallets, reaching out to family,

friends, and neighbors, and working the grass roots as if we are in jeopardy of losing seats.

[MADem]

8. It's wherever two or more Republicans gather in name

Gotta love Mark Shields...the reference to the song is priceless!!!! No love to be felt, for certain!

[ginnyinWI]

22. Well the song got it from the New Testament. Just FYI. n/t

[MADem]

25. Yeah, it's a staple in the Catholic church, and Mark Shields is a classic

Catholic...

[many a good man]

9. The bloom is off the (Turd)blossom

The next closest point on the graph is 1974.

1974!

[spooky3]

11. Paranoia?--or is anyone else worried that

Rethugs are trying to (a) manage expectations so that if they lose only 5 or 10 seats everyone will say they had a huge victory and (b) scare their base into giving money now and voting later and lull the opposition and independents into complacency?

With so many safe seats held by incumbents in gerrymandered districts, I don't see how a 30 seat swing is possible now or in the future.

[struggle4progress]

12. Learn to say "REPUBLICAN President Bush"

[meow2u3]

13. STP to Mark Shields: from your mouth to God's ears

O8)

[FogerRox]

14. 30 seats? do I hear 35 seats? 35 seats?

[FogerRox]

18. Do I hear 40 seats?

MR Murtha bids 40 seats.

DO I hear 45 seats?

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

19. Thirty seats is enough...

Contact your local Democratic campaign on Monday morning and volunteer two hours per week. Two hours. You want your country back? Two hours. More than a hundred thousand GI's are trapped in Iraq for all the wrong reasons, balancing between life and death. Two hours of your time each week brings them home alive. All of them.

Two Hours. You got something better to do?

[kestrel91316]

21. (waving hi to Jeff in MW):

Where in MW are you? My DS and BIL are in Whitefish Bay. I go there every year at Christmas.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

26. I'm in Brookfield...

A depressingly Republican part of the area. Whitefish Bay is lovely, and there are a lot of good Dem's in the neighborhood.

[midnight]

30. Hi Jeff.

That area is depressingly Republican. We are the lone Dems on my block.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

39. Send me a PM

I aim to change that...

[Doctor_J]

32. Congrats on living in Brookfield

that's where Milwaukee's successful live - Robin Yount, Al McGuire, an dothers. You must be doing well.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

40. LOL!

I'm a little "house poor" right now, if you know what I mean.

I didn't realize the neighborhood I was moving into. It ain't exactly the Rainbow Coalition going on around here.

[Pacifist Patriot]

15. Please, oh please let FL15 be one of the thirty. Please!

[ginnyinWI]

23. And WI 5th!!! Senslessbrenner! nt

[UrbScotty]

16. That's where we come in.

Yes, Shields might be pessimistic, but we must not fall into the GOP's trap.

We must keep the pressure on the Bush Administration and their rubber stamps, and not take these elections for granted.

[Dora]

20. A big fat kick.

[Robbie Michaels]

24. I think there will be more to lose

Wait until Fitzgerald goes after Cheney :evilgrin:

[ClassWarrior]

28. They're "managing expectations." Don't let 'em trick you!!

We need to work harder and campaign harder EVERY SINGLE TIME they play this game. Beware, people!!

NGU.

[FogerRox]

29. Ted Kennedy said we take the house and senate back

Murtha said 40 seats. 70 something veterens are running, the Band of Brothers....

I have 23 vunerable and 20 open.

[Doctor_J]

31. If only the Dems in DC could unify for 6 months

they could put the Smirk family off the public dole for eternity. Of course, if pigs could fly they'd be birds.

[Awsi Dooger]

35. Looking at the districts, I don't see it

The percentages from most recent elections don't hint at that type of massive turnover. Nor the amount of retirements. Nor gerrymandering. If we gain control it figures to be via the slightest of margins.

This site is a very good one for a convenient summary of the races this fall; senate, house and gov. Scroll down to the right for the individual states: http://californianintexas.blogspot.com/

[CornField]

36. Doing my very best to turn Iowa 2 Blue.

Go, Dave! http://www.loebsackforcongress.org

[mtnester]

38. Let's take a look at something from local politics to set up November

County commissioner primary.

Incumbent is despised by the polls within the power base of his own party.

The party selected a hand picked successor, funded him big time, endorsed him, the local papers endorsed him, a particular well known preacher talked him up at the local meeting places...this would normally and historically guarantee a victory for him.

What the party did not count on was what he put in his literature. That he was proud to have been the county coordinator for the GW re-selection process. How he met GW and thought he was a great guy and still supports him 1000000%.

Come election day and those outside the party upper echelon came to vote,the regular joe republicans, they sent him home. BIG time. An endorsed candidate from the right part of the county.

Read into this what you want, but, this is the first time in my lifetime in this area this has happened. But, I am still of the firm believer that all politics are local.

[Blackhatjack]

41. Just Wait Till Hookergate is Exposed by Repub Hill Staffers ....

The corruption is systemic, the "family values" will take a big hit, and Congressmen are going to jail -- should hit before Nov elections.