Top Five Contenders for 2008 ... Repub and Democrats

[RedEarth]

Noting there are just 978 days to go, Chuck Todd picks the top five front runners in the 2008 presidential race for each party. "These rankings are based on a number of factors, including: organization, money, buzz and polling. The candidates in our two top spots may not surprise you, but they are the candidates who are doing well in all four categories."

Republicans:
Sen. John McCain
Sen. George Allen
Gov. Mitt Romney
Gov. Mike Huckabee
Newt Gingrich

Democrats:
Sen. Hillary Clinton
Mark Warner
John Edwards
Sen. Evan Bayh
Gov. Bill Richardson

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2006/03/03/todds_white_house_rankings.html

[Ediacara]

1. Richardson's on that list, but not Clark?

[Totally Committed]

7. I know!

What a steaming load of horse-* that is! Looks like a DLC Wish-List to me.

TC

[FreedomAngel82]

11. But wait a minute

Kerry is supposed to be DLC's butt boy but he isn't on the list!

:sarcasm:

[Totally Committed]

15. True enough...

all that filibuster hubbub must've rubbed them the wrong way. Kerry needs to disavow that organization and walk away.

But really... Bill Richardson? Unreal.

TC

[wtbymark]

2. Feingold is my pick

Hillary at the top of the list - yea, let the pukes keep on thinking that

[Dolomite]

3. Just 978 days to go?

Holy Crap!

[Virginia Dare]

4. Where's Condasleaza?

[Mass]

5. Romney in 3rd. Bay and Richarson for the Dems, but neither

Kerry, Clark, or Gore. Richardson, Bayh and Warner are doing well in polling ? That is news for me (except may be the insiders polling).

Insider BS, that is all it is. (buzz?? That is too early to talk about buzz anyway. At this stage, buzz is just reporters trying to fill their columns).

[Jaydog]

6. What about Condi?

Today, in Kalamazoo, Michigan, I saw a big SUV with a " Condi '08" bumper sticker. Couldn't believe my eyes.
Holy Crap!

Jaydog

[FreedomAngel82]

12. Welcome to Du

:)

[Catchawave]

8. We also might consider....

HUGE fundraising for the ole' war chests is why Primary pre-season is starting so early....too bad, eh?

"These rankings are based on a number of factors, including: organization, money, buzz and polling. The candidates in our two top spots may not surprise you, but they are the candidates who are doing well in all four categories."


I posted earlier on this with my 978 days to go thread :toast:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2488915

[FreedomAngel82]

13. Kerry has plenty of money though

He isn't poor or anything. He's using the left over election money from 2004 for other canidates running now.

[TreasonousBastard]

9. Too bad Granholm was born in Vancouver...

so we're left with the B team.

Anyway, it's still too soon to worry about '08 and any speculation is a waste of time. Nothing serious will be done about '08 after the elections this year, and then there's still a year to go before anyone even thinks of announcing.

Once again, someone's gonna pop up out of nowhere and blow away the crowd in the early primaries.

[skipos]

26. Feel free to help Granholm in MI, she needs it!

:hi:

[FreedomAngel82]

10. No John Kerry?

How nice.

[wisteria]

14. I wondered why no Kerry either except all on Dem list are DLC.

Warner second? Please, he isn't even known outside of VA except by a few people. This poll is a promotional DLC stunt. IMO of course.

[Totally Committed]

16. Unfortunately, Kerry is also

DLC. As I said upthread, he needs to disavow them and walk away NOW if he thinks he might even try another run. The DLC has sent out their Wish List and he ain't on it.

TC

[TayTay]

24. They have already disavowed him

Al From hates Kerry and takes every opportunity to slam him and blames Kerry's liberalism for the loss in 2004.

I don't think Kerry is what From has in mind when he things about the DLC and their positions and candidates. Maybe that's why Kerry hasn't been to their conventions in a few years.

[Initech]

17. Gingrich?!?!?! He wouldnt make it past Iowa.

Total Bush shill, and I think people are starting to say that they've had enough of this shit.

[mtnsnake]

18. It's a shame Clark isn't on it, although I can sort of understand it

Of those 5, I think Warner would be the one who MIGHT have a shot to win the presidency, but it would be a long shot. He'd have to overcome his image of being a relative newcomer to politics with not much experience under his belt. The repukes would go after him for that with a vengeance. I wouldn't rule out Hillary's chances either, altogether. Someone else, a brand new face, better appear magically out of the blue or we might be in serious trouble.

[Tom Rinaldo]

22. I understand it also, but not for the same reasons

Clark is not a Washington insider so he does not get the supporting washington insider buzz and media attention. Clark still consistently polls higher than everyone other than Edwards on that list, and Edwards isn't far ahead, in REAL polls conducted OFFLINE. Warner seems to be a talented man but Clark is still out polling Warner in the real world, not just on DU. Warner has his own money sources however and insiders may be factoring that in, I dunno. But Clark is one of the most in demand speakers for local and State Democratic Party functions and campaign events, in the REAL WORLD, not blogs. Oh and we all know Republicans not only will go after Clark, they already are but that is a sign of respect this far out from the election. Republicans will go after anyone we run, the variable is how our candidate responds.

[mtnsnake]

23. Actually, I didn't give any reasons, but I agree with your reasons,

especially what you said about him not being a Washington insider. It's too bad that he's sort of out of that loop because people really do like seeing and hearing him.

[karynnj]

29. I wouldn't be so pessimistic

The Republicans don't look so great either, other than McCain. I think McCain is a fraud and the more I see or learn about him the stronger I dislike him. The real question is whether he can keep that teflon for the next almost 3 years. If it cracks, there's a lot there that is not pretty.

I am beginning to get a bit suspicious of why Democrats and left leaning reporters have been so nice to him. If he weren't so obviously running, I would suspect that maybe they knew he was ill. It does seem weird to make comments like Biden's - "Maybe I'll vote for him, too" on the Imus show.

Other than McCain, only Hagel is on a par with most of our candidates.

The other thing is that with no incumbent, the fact that in 2004 the majority of people agreed with the Democratic position on all issues except National security (I guess they didn't want the ports secured as Kerry daily discussed.). It may well be that ANY candidate we nominate in 2008 will win unless they self destruct.

[mtnsnake]

30. You're absolutely right

"The Republicans don't look so great either, other than McCain"

I couldn't agree more with you on that, and I think they have an even worse problem than we do.

"It may well be that ANY candidate we nominate in 2008 will win unless they self destruct."

I've often wondered that, too, but just the same, I still worry. I guess one of the most important things is to make sure we don't make any drastic mistakes that could cause us to "self destruct".

Excellent post, karynnj.

[NCarolinawoman]

19. If that is our final group I will either be angry or I will fall asleep

while watching them put their fingers in the air to figure out which way the wind is blowing. I will NOT be inspired, that's for sure.

[AtomicKitten]

20. I think the Dem list has some glaring problems.

Wesley Clark
Al Gore
John Kerry

[Armstead]

21. With the exception of Edwards that;s a very uninspiring Democratic list

The Republican list is preditably awful

[dolstein]

25. Sez you

Mark Warner is VERY inspiring. The incredibly popular governor (recently retired) of the best managed state in the country. Demonstrated ability to appeal to rural voters. Moves the state of Virginia into the blue column. A winner.

[Armstead]

28. Inspiring for Virginia but that's not enough

Mihael Dukakis accomplished similar things as governor of Massachusetts.

[alfredo]

27. We want Russ!! We want Russ!!

Senators usually don't do good in presidential races.

[Cosmocat]

31. $$$$ talks ...

I think out of the gates, that is where Wes Clark takes a hit ... Hillary is the candidate, in both parties, with the biggest war chest ... IT also explains Warner being second, he has personal wealth behind him, and is connected in the VA/Washington area, with the ability to crank up the fundraising ...

Also, the media WANTS to keep Clark down, cause he is a REAL threat as a democrat ... I broke my own rule and watched the Tweety conservawhore group Friday, and the Blonde conservabot took a shot at Clark about how he "made a fool of himself" or something like that, during the last election as a "newcomer" to presidential races ...

Clark is the real deal, and the machine knows it ...

Bayh is BLAND ... BLAND ... Jesus, the democratic party has to do better than that ... And Richardson ... He has this republican like slimyness to him ... I could get behind most of the likely D candidates and really believe in them ... Clark, Warner, Feingold ... I think Edwards isn't ready, but I think he is great person ... I know the DU hates her, but Hillary would be great ...

But, I would have to swallow hard to accept Bayh, and I would be repulsed to accept Richardson ...

Converely ... The media WANTS to hammer McCain into the presidency ... He is playing his cards just right now, but as some have noted, he could melt down when things start to get tight ... Who knows, but going by past practices, it seems Allen is the guy the repukes are ready to get behind ...

[Tom Rinaldo]

32. There are a number of standard dismissive Memes being used

There are orchestrated standard G.O.P. talking points against Clark being used at every chance. You can just sit back and wait for them and they pop up without fail. One is how much of a miserable failure and embarrassment he was in 2004. If they say it often enough they hope to make it unquestioned conventional wisdom. The facts differ. Clark entered the race a full year after every other major candidate. They all had staff long in place, they all had been on the ground in NH and Iowa for many months. Clark easily bested Lieberman, Graham, and Gerhardt, all very seasoned pro's with deep credentials at the time.

Clark did at least as well as Dean while he was in the race, and a good case can be made that he did slightly better (not worth arguing about, each man had real support and a shot at winning had a few variables played out differently). During the same time Clark did almost as well as Edwards, and Edwards is now being held up as a major 08 contender (and I don't argue that he isn't or shouldn't be considered one). Clark didn't have time to compete in both NH and Iowa and that is why he did not do better than he did. Even after skipping Iowa, Clark came in third in NH (a near tie with Edwards who finished slightly behind Clark in NH). However after Iowa the media wrote Clark off and only told the story of Dean's scream and Kerry and Edwards having momentum. However a week before the Iowa voting, Clark was well ahead of Kerry in NH and within a few points of Dean, having built support there steadily over the month prior. Clark's strategy focused on NH, but the media spotlight moving to Iowa where Dean and Gephardt both collapsed and Clark wasn't present to pick up any of those pieces doomed him.

Such is politics, but Clark did perfectly fine in 2004, especially for a first time candidate. Almost all of his rookie mistakes happened in the first 6 weeks of his campaign, and it got progressively stronger after that. Clark's average individual donation was almost as small as Dean's, and much smaller than for Kerry or Edwards, meaning Clark had genuine mass appeal, especially when you realize that his fundraising was leading the pack in late December/January.

The other GOP meme they will push is that Clark is somehow wacko. The more mainstream the source of the slur, the more veiled it will be, but it is a constant thread to attempt to undermine his credibility, and in right leaning blogs they try to make Clark out to be Dr. Strangelove. Take this Wall Street Journal column from May 2005 as a good example of the technique:

BY JAMES TARANTO
Thursday, May 5, 2005 12:13 p.m. EDT

Liberalism in Hoc

In the Middle East, things seem to be working out according to President Bush's plan. Before the liberation of Iraq, the president argued that removing Saddam Hussein from power would pave the way for a democratic Iraq and make it possible for democracy to spread throughout the Arab world. The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum totes up the progress:

Elections in Iraq and Egypt. Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon. Voluntary disarmament in Libya. New progress between Israel and the Palestinians. A lot has happened in the Middle East since the invasion of Iraq two years ago.


Drum grudgingly acknowledges that the president may deserve some credit for all this, but other Monthly writers are at pains to deny it. Funniest of all is goofball general Wesley Clark, who seems to deny that the liberation of Iraq had anything to do with democracy even in Iraq:

Democracy can't be imposed--it has to be homegrown. In the Middle East, democracy has begun to capture the imagination of the people. For Washington to take credit is not only to disparage courageous leaders throughout the region, but also to undercut their influence at the time it most needs to be augmented. Let's give credit where credit is due--and leave the political spin at the water's edge."
http://www.opinionjournal.com/best/?id=110006650

[alfredo]

34. This could hurt McCain

Allen wears a hairpiece.

I like Clark a lot, same with Edwards. Right now Hillary looks tough to beat. She has that maddening (for republicans) ability to gain support when attacked. I think she would make a terrific president. If things work out right in 06, she will be greeted at the Oval Office by President Pelosi.


Don't count out Richardson. He's well liked and has good name recognition. Right now I think it will be between Hillary and Warner. Of course if Gore jumps back in, all bets are off. He's a great unknown.

[sofa king]

33. Of those five Republicans...

I can see only one who is likely to be privy to the inner workings of the Republican criminal empire.

That's Newt. I can't imagine that guy would get the nod, but since the electoral process is a sham, I guess it's their choice.

And all of this presupposes that W. will leave office as required.