Dem's' Race Ain't Over Yet - a moderate (Clark or Edwards) will emerge

[kerry-is-my-prez]

Warning: This is an article written by Dick Morris in the NY Post...

http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/15754.htm
January 30, 2004 -- .....the Democratic nomination probably won't be decided by a contest in which John Kerry beats Howard Dean and never really has to come to terms with also-rans like John Edwards and Wesley Clark. Only the liberal wing of the Democratic Party has reached a conclusion in its designation of Kerry as their finalist for the nomination. There is still a big opening for a moderate candidate such Edwards or Clark. .... the moderate primary was essentially a three-way tie —Edwards and Clark at 12 percent each, with Joe Lieberman only slightly behind at 9 percent.

The race will not remain a Kerry-Dean contest, but will evolve, as it always does, into one between one liberal (likely Kerry) and one moderate.....The next round on Tuesday favors the moderates as we move south to South Carolina, Missouri, Delaware, Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma and North Dakota. Iowa and New Hampshire classically weed out the field and nominate a representative from the left to battle one from the center for the nomination: In 1976, Carter emerged as the moderate and Rep. Morris Udall as the liberal. In '84, it became Gary Hart vs. Walter Mondale; in '88, Michael Dukakis vs. Al Gore. In 1992, Bill Clinton represented the center, Jerry Brown, the left......

With Dean's early surge and Kerry's dramatic comeback, there was little time or attention for the centrists to attract notice. Without a strong centrist candidate, and with all the attention on the Kerry-Dean drama, the New Hampshire independents and moderates were drowned out.......The left's mobilization in the primaries so far, out of intense concern over the war in Iraq, has led many to ignore the Democratic Party's vast centrist base.

Now that Kerry is alone at the top as the frontrunner, he'll start getting the bulk of the criticism and media scrutiny. As he comes to be seen as the reincarnation of Ted Kennedy and Mike Dukakis (he and Kennedy share Bob Shrum as their common media man), the center will grope for an alternative. Then the process will really get under way. Because of the truncated nature of this year's political calendar, it will all happen quickly. But stay tuned, it will happen.

[tryanhas]

1. Edwards will emerge

Once he wins South Carolina, Oklahoma, and New Mexico next week.

I don't trust Zogby's polls, at all.

I know for a fact that Edwards is doing better in NM than Zogby says, and he has always been doing well in Oklahoma.

It ain't over yet...

[loudsue]

2. I think the article called it right...don't count Clark out yet...

He'll make a far better showing than many might believe at this point.

Both Edwards AND Clark are the dark horses here.

:kick:

[jsw_81]

6. Maybe

But will Edwards beat Kerry in liberal-leaning states like California, New York, Washington, Connecticut or Massachusetts? I think not.

[DjTj]

9. Maybe is right...

...can Edwards beat Kerry in California or New York?

Maybe.

[AntiCoup2K4]

10. Kerry won't win Washington state.

Haven't seen a single one of his signs around here yet. Mostly Dean, with a few Clark and Kucinich.

[jenk]

3. this kind of makes sense

[Leilani]

4. Dick Morris is a toe-sucking

FOX mouthpiece.

I would not trust him if he said the sky was blue.

[Auntie Bush]

8. I don't trust him either...except when

he suggests Kerry doesn't have it in the bag and Clark has a good chance of winning. Maybe it is good not to peak too early.

[Adjoran]

5. We'll see soon enough

If Kerry does really well on Tuesday, it will be hard to get donors to give money to anyone else. With the super-compressed primary schedule, most campaigning the rest of the way must be via TV ads, and they cost money.

I personally hope it will become a two-man race, at least, for a few more weeks. I stated last year it was a mistake to annoint Dean as the nominee before any votes were cast, and I have similar reservations about giving Kerry the nod on the basis of two small states and a media wave. I'll gladly support him if he is the nominee. I would just like to see the campaigns tested over a longer period and more regions of the country before it's over.

[DjTj]

7. If a clear anti-Kerry emerges...

...that candidate will get a lot of money from anyone who isn't so sure about Kerry.

[Renew Deal]

11. Dick Morris wanted Dean.

He would puch him at every opportunity and tear down everyone else.