New national poll numbers: Kerry 45, Dean 14, Edwards 11, Clark 5

[Renew Deal]

Those are newsweek national numbers. I will try to get them confirmed. I just saw them on MSRNC.

Kerry beats Bush again 48-46

Edwards second losing to Bush* 49-44

Bush's favorable is 49 which they say is a record low for Newsweek.

Kerry's favorability with Dems is 82. Overall it's 57. They said that's incredibly high. People feel he is very intellegent. Some feel he is out of touch. I am just regergitating what I heard.

[BootinUp]

1. Baaaaaaa! the Sheeple say!

Its just ridiculous how the poll numbers change. The only possible conclusion is people never made up their minds in the first place! And Newsweek polls strike me as the least in line with other National polls.

[Renew Deal]

3. 15% jump

They said Kerry had a 15% jump.

[Darth_Kitten]

2. I've heard it's neck and neck between Bush and ANY democratic......

nominee. :) Wish I had a link, sorry. :(

[curse10]

6. That's the cutest pic Darth!

:-)

Sorry to derail the thread!

[THUNDER HANDS]

4. 82% wow

And 57% is a great number as well.

Gee, and all this time I was wondering if I was in the minority. :D

[PurityOfEssence]

5. Considering that Edwards is the least known of the bunch

and that Dean is now (in my biased opinion) un-nominatable as well as unelectable, doesn't this show something?

Granted, Kerry is far ahead, but he was the ballyhooed front-runner in the beginning, and has had a remarkable comeback of late. Edwards is barely on peoples' radar at the moment, and he's steadily gaining.

Emotion aside, I beseech you to give him a serious look-see. (Must beat Junior, must beat Junior, must beat Junior...)

Edwards is potentially very popular in rural areas due to parts of his platform and his presentation, and he's got the most wide-ranging geographic appeal of any candidate. Throw into this the fact that he's got more positives and less negatives in a general election, and he warrants a consideration.

(He's also pretty damned progressive and has a very detailed platform.)

[jenk]

8. he's doing good in rural areas, not great, I think he'll pick up momentum

3rd in Oklahoma (within striking distance of first though) 1st in SC, 2nd (albeit a distant 2nd) in SC. but he is gaining ground

[NNN0LHI]

10. You left out one small but important thing about Edwards

He has the killer instinct of a grizzly bear. Just hard to tell with that boyish grin.

Don

[curse10]

7. Pretty interesting, but polls are not exactly gospel

Still keeping my reality hat on :-)

[WiseMen]

9. Only about 30% say they share is view on issues. But they support Him

Pretty incredible.

[hlthe2b]

11. National Polls are extremely unreliable right now.... Here's why

The statistics used are predicated on the assumption that you can sample throughout the country and that there are no state-specific or regional specific differences. Thus relatively small sample sizes reach statistical significance only if one assumes that sampling from State A is no different than sampling from state B...

Given that different states are at different phases in the political cycle (primaries, caucuses) and differ in the attention being given to the candidates right now, this is not a viable nor justifiable assumption. The national press, of course, wants to assume that people make up their minds based on THEIR reporting and punditry, but increasingly we are seeing that that is simply not true.

A reliable national survey at this point would have to take this into account, thereby increasing the numbers required to survey dramatically. Given that this would be both costly and time consuming (and be required throughout the primary season), pollsters are not going to do this. But, they know (and would have to admit, if pressed) that the national scene is far to volatile to truly believe a sample of 1000 or so from a national poll is at all reflective of true national opinion... They justify the whole approach by saying they are looking for changes in trends. Those "trends," though, will likely be all over the map and doubtful validity.

[in_cog_ni_to]

12. There we have it.

The SHEEPLE EFFECT. 82%......Hahahahahaahahaha!

[polpilot]

13. DLC breakin' out the champagne and 'Fear of Change' folks breathing

a sigh of relief. Whew...that was close. We almost had a revolution on our hands.

Dean '04...