Kerry Leads Primary Polls in Three States

[BeatleBoot]

<snip>

"Polls have found Kerry with a commanding lead in Missouri, Arizona and North Dakota, representing 143 of the 269 delegates at stake. Polling shows him competitive in South Carolina and Oklahoma, and party leaders give him the edge in New Mexico and Delaware."

http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/stories/D/DEMOCRATS?SITE=MIDTN&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

[joeybee12]

1. Don't flame me, but I don't understand this...what I mean is his

campaign was dead in the water...or at least we thought. I still have't read a satisfactory answer as to why he's now soaring.

I have a partial explanation--the media counted him out and really ignored him--easy for him to get his message out--he wasn't the message, like Dean was, with such focus on him, and it was mainly negative. Kerry was able to go about campaigning without any distractions, as was Edwards. Definitely can't say that about Dean, nor can you say that about Clark.

Any other theories??????? And please, no gloating or bashing! Let's anlyze this.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

2. And another question that is bothering me:

Why didn't the other candidates go after Kerry in the debate?

They weren't shrinking violets in previous debates regarding the "frontrunner."

I wonder what it means?

[bearfartinthewoods]

3. i've asked the same question.

what is different betweem kerry version 1/04 from kerry version 10/03?
his record hasn't changed. what is the difference?

[molly]

4. The general public does not even start paying attention

until January - it's that simple.

[mohc]

5. Simple

Everyone needs to keep in mind that 90% of primary voters, especially those outside of IA and NH, were paying absolutely no attention to the candidates before 3 weeks ago. Any poll taken before then is effectively meaningless. Even the recent polls of the later states means little because so much depends on the outcome of each successive primary.

IA...3 weeks ago....Dean has a slight lead over Dick Gephardt. Instead of just letting things ride out from there, Dean chooses to go on the offensive and try to put everyone away early. Gephardt responds to Dean's ads in kind. Meanwhile you have Kerry who is already rising to a close third, and this Edwards guy way back but being the poster child for positive campaigning. This was the worst thing that could possibly happen to both Dean and Gephardt. There were still tons of undecided voters, who would have happily flocked to the front-runner as the caucus date neared. But Dean and Gephardt slipped because voters did not like the tone of their ads, and they flocked to Kerry and Edwards. In NH, the IA results (including the "scream") shifted support to Kerry. So long as nothing happens, momentum from each state will just further add to Kerry's support. Kerry is doing what Dean should have done.....nothing. Make some appearances, run some ads, but basically keep your mouth shut as much as possible. Now the other three contenders are just hoping that one of the other two will attack Kerry relentlessly, but they know that will probably be their own demise too.

The good news for the other contenders is that 90% of voters in later states still are not paying attention either. If momentum swings for any reason, then whichever candidate steps into the void could be on their way to the nomination. We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

[polpilot]

6. Go to the DLC site for ALL answers to the annointed frontrunner. Dean

ran against the pro-war DLC establishment, the entrenched pro-war democratic nominee seekers, and the repubs. Dean is a defacto third party candidate who was running under the radar as a demo. He needs to read the DLC site and ask 'What the hell am I doing here?'

Dean '04...The Decent Party