My top 10 Senate races

[safi0]

In 04 their were 9 Senate races that you could classify as toss-ups. We got slaughtered in those races losing 8-1. Right now I think that their are 10 races which will be competitive. Some races may fall out of this category, and some may move up but these are my top 10 right now, I'll go in descending order to build up the hype:

10.Arizona
Likely matchup: Fromer state party chair Jim Pederson vs Sen. John Kyl
Status: Likely GOP
Pederson has done a good job in raising money and he's going to be on the ticket with pop. Gov. Janet Napolitano. Having said that he's getting destroyed in the polls. What really concerns me is not that he's trailing by 25 points but that Kyl gets 20% of Democrats in the polls I've seen.

9.New Jersey
Likely matchup: State Sen. Tom Kean(R)vs Cong.Robert Menendez
Status: Leans Dem
God I wish Richard Codey would've accepted this. This wouldn't even be on my radar if he did. But I believe that the only way Kean can win in a state like NJ is if we see a repeat of NJ 2002 where things like ethics become the issue. Because if this race is about the issues, the no.3 House Democrat will expose a half term state sen. for exactly what he is which is a lightweight living off his father's name. I also really hope that Frank Pallone and/or Andrews stay out of the race. I was hoping Pallone would run but Corzine made his decision and I think those should accept that decision

8.Montana
Likely matchup: State Auditor John Morrison(D) vs Sen. Conrad Burns
Status: Leans GOP
I really don't know who's going to win this primary, but I think the primary is the type of primary you want to have. It looks it'll stay clean and the guy with the best ideas will win. I put Morrison simply because he seems to be a bit more polished. Burns will have a lto of money and in a state like Montana which leans GOP to begin with with cheap media markets could be enough. But Burns had a tough re-election campaign last go-around and that was in a presidential year and a lot has changed in MT over the last 5 years and most of that has benefitted Democrats.

7.Maryland
Likely matchup: Cong. Ben Cardin(D) vs Lt. Gov. Michael Steele
Status: leans Dem
I'm really quite optimistic about this race. As long as it becomes how Steele will be nothing more than a Bush-shill as a US Sen instead of about his skin color we'll win this race. Because Steele has huge advantages in name recognition over Steele yet still trails by 7-9 pts. to Cardin in all polls means good things

6.Tennessee
Likely matchup: Cong. Harold Ford(D) vs I have no idea
Status: toss-up/leans GOP
The GOP has a 3 way primary between Bob Corker, Van Hilleary and Ed Bryant. Hilleary will probably lose but Bryant and Corker, I have no idea who will win. If Corker gets the nomination then it would be very difficult for Ford to win because Corker is more moderate and it would be difficult for Ford to attract the moderate Republicans he needs to win in TN. But if Bryant runs then those moderates may be willing to cross over and vote for Ford.

5.Minnesota
Status:toss-up/leans Dem
Likely matchup: Hennepin County DA Amy Klouchbar(D) vs Cong. Mark Kennedy
A poll yesterday showed Klouchbar with a 7 point lead over Kennedy. Kennedy has one big disadvantage that Coleman didn't have in 02, which is that he has a record of being a Bush-shill. It'll be much more difficult for him to play the faux-moderate card. If he can't he'll lose handily unless Bush's approval ratings pick-up

4.Rhode Island
Status: toss-up
Likely matchup: Former AG Sheldon Whitehouse(D) vs Sen. Lincoln Chaffee
With some good recruitments this race has fallen from 2 to 4, but it still retains its toss-up status. Although the GOP has an incumbent Senator, I think the Dems have a clearer primary, because the 2 Dems don't seem to have a lot of difference in ideology so things like endorsements and fundraising will likely decide the race and in that respect Whitehouse has a huge advantage over Brown. If this Mayor Laffey gets the GOP nomination we will win this race. Even if eh doesn't Chaffee is a complete milktoast and we can defeat him.

3.Missouri
Status: toss-up
Likely matchup: State Auditor Claire McCaskill(D) vs Sen. Jim Talent
I think this race is the barometer for a lot of other races. Talent doesn't have much of a record and I think the national mood and the opinions of MO residents about Bush will be the deciding factor in this race.

2.Ohio
Likely matchup: Sherrod Brown/Paul Hackett(D) vs Sen. Mike Dewine
Status: toss-up
I'm a Hackett supporter, but more important than that I pray that this race stays clean. The good news is that OH has an early primay in May, a full 6 months before the GE so whatever hard feelings their are should be long gone by then. Dewine is emminently beatable as he's consistently polling at the bottom among US Senators in approval rating. Both are good candidates and I think both could win
1.Pennsylvania
Likely matchup: Auditor Bob Casey(D) vs Sen. Rick Santorum
Status: Likely Dem
Santorum hasn't polled within 10 points of Casey since like the summer. Everyone expects this race to tighten up, but I don't think it'll be nearly enough to win this race.

Races that could crack this list: WA, FL(If harris drops out), NE, NV, ME(If Snowe retires), and MS(If Lott retires)

[BOSSHOG]

1. Take it to the bank

if Lott retires (and that is still a pretty good possibility), the Senate race in Mississippi will be competitive. The current and former Democratic State Attorney Generals would be incredibly viable candidates and believe it or not the State party is fairly well organized, cohesive and active. I hope Trent bends to family pressure and tends to hurricane relief instead of returning to Washington. A guess on my part, trent is afraid his seat will end up in Dems hands, thus his unwillingness to make a decision. On the other hand, and another guess of mine, he might want to give the seat to the Dems just to piss bush off.

[UrbScotty]

7. Interesting, but the plural of 'Attorney General' is 'Attorneys General'

FYI.

;-)

[napi21]

2. I think there's going to be a big impact by the Abramoff thing.

We don't know just how many incumbants will be smacked down hard when THAT info starts being released! Then there's the Frist investigation.

The other race you didn't mention is PA with Casey D v/s Santorum R

So far it's looking bad for Samtorum!

[LeftNYC]

4. Its #1 on his list...nt

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

3. McCaskill in MO is on the radar

I hear her name on MO radio and TV on various things she's doing-and it's been enough that a person not in her state knows who she is. So name recognition is going well for her. I think at least some Missourians are mad over the draconian Medicaid cuts, which will help her.

Why is Kyl in AZ getting 20% of Democratic votes? I haven't been following that race.

[KitchenWitch]

5. Patty Wetterling is also running against Mark Kennedy in MN

We will not truly know who the DFL candidate for this seat will be until the primaries.

[safi0]

8. I know Wetterling

Is running, but other than OH I put the most likely candidates only and Klouchbar's the favorite in that race

[jburton]

6. Kyl (aka Not John McCain)

Kyl is under 50%, which is bad for an incumbent. Meanwhile, the Dem gov is wildly popular, so maybe she'll have some coattails for Pederson.